Over the past week, we’ve been analyzing our website and customer activity data to see if the election has had any immediate effect on homebuyer behavior. On Wednesday November 9, homebuyers indeed exhibited what we call a “hangover” effect, only slightly more pronounced than what we often see on the day after major holidays, such as on the fifth of July.
Homebuyer activity, which we calculated as a combination of the number of Redfin.com users marking homes as favorites and the numbers of Redfin customers requesting home tours and writing offers to buy homes, fell 20.6 percent on Wednesday compared with the prior Wednesday. For context, the second Wednesdays in November of the past three years saw homebuyer activity up 0.4 percent week over week, on average. The day after the 2012 election, homebuyer activity was up 1.3 percent week over week.
However, by the weekend, homebuyer activity rebounded, but still lagged the week-over-week growth levels typically seen in early November. Homebuyer activity was up 4.8 percent on Saturday and up 1.2 percent on Sunday, compared to week-over-week averages of 5.5 and 4.5 percent, respectively, over the past three years.
Week-over-Week Change in Homebuyer Activity
Redfin Customers Favoriting Homes, Requesting Home Tours, Writing Offers
[redfin_table file=”https://www.redfin.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Copy-of-For-Natalie-1.csv” footnote = ”][/redfin_table]
Homebuyers and Wall Street have reacted to the election in similar ways so far, according to Nela Richardson, Redfin’s chief economist.
“Redfin data shows an initial dramatic decline in homebuying activity followed by a quick recovery,” said Richardson. “While Trump’s policies may have a long-term effect on housing, the post-election homebuyer hangover was short-lived.”
And while some of our home-buying customers were among those inquiring about the potential impact of the administration change, Redfin agents report that it’s business as usual. One Dallas homebuyer who closed last Wednesday said he felt it was good luck to buy a home on such a historic day.
Homebuyer activity on a specific day (Pacific Time) is a combination of the number of users marking homes as “Favorites” on Redfin.com, as well as the number of Redfin customers requesting home tours and writing offers to buy homes. A weighted combination of favorite, tour and offer activity – representing early, mid and late-stage interest in housing, respectively – is calculated across all markets where Redfin operates. The week-over-week change in this number is reported to normalize for Redfin growth and year-over-year market changes.