{"id":109125,"date":"2026-05-05T16:00:35","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T23:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/?p=109125"},"modified":"2026-05-06T13:50:35","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T20:50:35","slug":"is-the-housing-market-going-to-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/is-the-housing-market-going-to-crash\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Housing Market Going to Crash?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><b>Key takeaways<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Economists are confident that the housing market is not going to crash<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Instead, it\u2019s undergoing a correction that will likely take many years.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home prices have continued to climb even as sales activity has slowed, largely due to an inventory shortage\u2014not a bubble waiting to burst.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lending standards are much stricter than they were before the Great Recession, reducing the risk of a credit-driven collapse.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even so, homebuyers and sellers are feeling the strain of an unaffordable housing market and volatile economic policies.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Today, the housing market feels <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-plateauing-october-2025\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">stuck<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Buyers are frozen out by high prices and elevated mortgage rates. Sellers are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-pending-sales-fall-slow-winter\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">reluctant<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to list because they don\u2019t want to give up low-rate mortgages and worry they won\u2019t find a buyer. As a result, sales are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-pending-home-sales-decline-most-metros\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">slow<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and price cuts are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/price-drops-record-rate-august-2025\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">more common<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Consumers are concerned about how dramatically the market has flipped from hot to cold.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But most economists are confident that the economy is actually undergoing a long-term correction, not spiraling out of control. The last real estate crash in the U.S. happened during the Great Recession nearly two decades ago, when a housing bubble fueled by risky lending triggered a collapse. Today\u2019s market looks fundamentally different.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, if you\u2019re a buyer or seller stuck on the sidelines wondering if the housing market is going to crash, this article is for you. Let\u2019s break down what a housing market crash looks like, why economists are confident we don\u2019t need to worry, and why buyers and sellers are on edge.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>From Redfin\u2019s Chief Economist<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cWe\u2019re in the middle of a long-term housing market correction, not a housing market crash. After the pandemic-era frenzy sent prices soaring and inventory to historic lows, the market needed a reset. What we\u2019re seeing now is not a sudden collapse but a yearslong comedown: slower sales, flatter prices in many metros, and buyers getting leverage.\u201d &#8211; <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/darylfairweather\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Daryl Fairweather, Redfin Chief Economist<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><b><i>&gt;&gt; Watch: <\/i><\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Pj1TeLA5qUc\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><b><i>Home Prices Can&#8217;t Crash. Here&#8217;s the Math.<\/i><\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<h2><b>What is a housing market crash?<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A housing market crash is a sudden, sharp, widespread drop in home values. Crashes usually stem from broader economic or financial shocks, like a recession, a surge in speculative lending, high inflation, or rising unemployment. Those pressures can quickly spill into housing, triggering oversupply or a sharp drop in demand.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">During a crash, several things typically happen at the same time:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home prices fall quickly across the nation<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Buyer demand drops, often due to job losses, high interest rates, or delinquency<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home sales slow sharply<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Foreclosures and mortgage defaults increase as homeowners struggle to keep up with payments<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Housing crashes rarely happen in isolation. They\u2019re usually tied to broader economic shifts, such as recessions, financial crises, or risky lending practices. The last true real estate crash in the U.S. happened during the 2007\u20132009 Great Recession, which was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreservehistory.org\/essays\/great-recession-and-its-aftermath\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\">linked<\/a> to a burst housing bubble and mortgage lending crisis.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>Why the housing market is unlikely to crash<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While the housing market today is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-pending-sales-fall-slow-winter\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">slow<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/housing-market-year-in-review-2025\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">expensive<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and impacted by <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/news\/press-release\/2025\/06\/10\/global-economic-prospects-june-2025-press-release\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">global economic uncertainty<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, experts are confident that the housing market is not going to crash. Instead, it\u2019s experiencing a prolonged \u201creset\u201d from the pandemic, when house prices and inflation skyrocketed. In fact, activity recently began <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-homebuying-demand-picks-up-spring\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">moving toward<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> more normal spring levels.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThe idea that there\u2019s a crash just around the corner is a narrative that forms whenever the economy goes through a seismic shift,\u201d said <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/chen-zhao\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Chen Zhao, Redfin Head of Economics Research<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. \u201cBut today, signs are pointing to a relatively stable reset: Prices are leveling out, mortgage rates are steady, construction is rising, and affordability is improving. But the market is still very difficult, so it\u2019s natural for people to worry.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s dive a bit deeper into why economists believe housing isn\u2019t heading toward a crash.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Home prices are rising more slowly, and will likely level out<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Before a crash, you might see home prices spike sharply and then suddenly plunge as a housing bubble bursts. That\u2019s not what we\u2019re seeing today. While prices are still rising in many markets, the pace of growth has <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-prices-rise-january-2026\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">slowed<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to around 1%, and most analysts <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/insights\/global-research\/real-estate\/us-housing-market-outlook\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">expect<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> prices to flatten in 2026 and beyond as the market continues to adjust.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"datawrapper-vis-cPIlD\" style=\"min-height: 423px;\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" defer src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/cPIlD\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\" data-target=\"#datawrapper-vis-cPIlD\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/cPIlD\/full.png\" alt=\"U.S. Median Sale Price Year-Over-Year Change: 2012-2026 (Line chart)\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Of course, there are regional exceptions. Parts of the Midwest and Northeast with relatively affordable housing and limited inventory are still seeing price growth. Meanwhile, prices are falling in a few overheated markets in the Sun Belt, notably Austin, which has flipped from the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/economy\/housing\/once-americas-hottest-housing-market-austin-is-running-in-reverse-94226027?gaa_at=eafs&amp;gaa_n=AWEtsqdwBiHzuz51Pna6G0-o1TTfQTDq2dncajTaebYAMO7575tek8pz4Na5sjKw8Gk%3D&amp;gaa_ts=69a8721c&amp;gaa_sig=Ub5O8ikJlqIOvi6jWROuivNsxXCCc_ubazDOq-g7pRfIP20U0nKuNJpTVR64P1NduAoTqcS2tGpcntRbuHVXIw%3D%3D\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">hottest<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/austin-texas-slowest-housing-market\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">coldest<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> market in the nation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Mortgage rates are settling into a new normal\u00a0<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A sudden increase or decrease in mortgage rates can trigger major shifts in the housing market, like a surge in demand or sharp drop in listings. That\u2019s very unlikely to happen today, barring dramatic action from the Trump Administration. While rates remain elevated compared to pandemic lows, they have <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/rate-lock-q2-2025\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">stabilized<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> relative to the rapid increases seen in 2022 and 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cIt\u2019s unclear exactly what would happen if rates dropped dramatically\u2014but we probably wouldn\u2019t see a surge in prices,\u201d continued Zhao. \u201cOne reason is because a drop in rates would likely mean the economy is in a recession, which would limit buyers\u2019 spending power. Another is because more supply might hit the market as sellers become \u201cunlocked\u201d from their pandemic-era rates. This is already beginning to happen: The share of homeowners with mortgage rates above 6% now <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-q3-2025\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">outnumbers<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> those with rates below 3%, which is leading to a slow increase in inventory.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>The labor market is relatively strong<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unemployment and job growth have an outsized impact on the housing market. Mass layoffs and rising unemployment are two of the main triggers of housing crashes, because they can lead to missed mortgage payments, forced sales, and rising foreclosures. When a lot of people quickly lose their income, housing demand often drops\u2014and supply spikes as financially strained homeowners are forced to sell.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s not what we\u2019re seeing today.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThe job market has been holding up relatively well, which is why we aren\u2019t seeing a surge in foreclosures or delinquencies,\u201d added Zhao. \u201cThere are some worrying signals that employment could shift in the future\u2014especially surrounding the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), and job growth that has almost <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/video\/business\/economy\/100000010706277\/explaining-us-job-growth-healthcare-ai-trump.html\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">exclusively<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> been concentrated in healthcare. But stable employment is a key reason economists don\u2019t expect a wave of foreclosures or distressed sales.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>There are stricter lending requirements<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Regulations put in place after the 2007-2009 financial crisis <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/obamawhitehouse.archives.gov\/blog\/2010\/07\/21\/president-obama-signs-wall-street-reform-no-easy-task\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">tightened<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> mortgage lending standards to reduce risky loans and prevent another broad mortgage-credit collapse. These rules\u2014like requiring banks to hold more money in reserve to cover potential lending losses\u2014make it less likely that credit alone will ignite another crash.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cWe are unlikely to see another credit-induced economic collapse given the strict lending standards set in 2010 and strengthened in 2024,\u201d noted Fairweather. \u201cStronger oversight and more transparent underwriting makes the housing market far more resilient than it was two decades ago. The Trump administration has <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2026\/04\/03\/trump-bank-mortgage-business-00852853\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">recently proposed<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> easing some of the Recession-era guardrails to get banks back into the mortgage business, but it\u2019s unclear what effect this will have.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>Why buyers and sellers are worried about a housing market crash<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even though a real estate crash is unlikely, everyday Americans are still dealing with the effects of a volatile and very unaffordable housing market\u2014<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/struggle-to-pay-housing-gen-z\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">especially<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> younger generations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To better understand the difficulties, let\u2019s break down some key data behind today\u2019s market.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>The pandemic housing boom and bust<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The pandemic threw the housing market off kilter and gave buyers and sellers a major case of whiplash, which prompted <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/01\/08\/why-housing-market-like-1980s-global-financial-crisis-home-prices-mortgage-rates\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">some experts<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to fear that a crash was possible.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Real estate activity grinded to a halt in early 2020 before skyrocketing to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-records-2021\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">record heights<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in 2021-2022, as remote work and ultra-low mortgage rates unleashed a buying frenzy centered in the Sun Belt. But when mortgage rates spiked and affordability collapsed in 2022\u20132023 due to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/opub\/ted\/2022\/consumer-prices-up-9-1-percent-over-the-year-ended-june-2022-largest-increase-in-40-years.htm\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">historic inflation<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, demand fell sharply.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"datawrapper-vis-xKImE\" style=\"min-height: 432px;\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" defer src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/xKImE\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\" data-target=\"#datawrapper-vis-xKImE\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/xKImE\/full.png\" alt=\"U.S. Pending Sales: 2012-2026 (Line chart)\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Today, the housing market is in the early stages of recovery, with many buyers still priced out and sellers waiting for activity to return. Price cuts are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/price-drops-record-rate-august-2025\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">fairly common<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> nationwide and regular in the Sun Belt where most people moved during the pandemic\u2014especially <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/30818\/TX\/Austin\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Austin<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/13415\/TN\/Nashville\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nashville<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/16657\/TX\/San-Antonio\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">San Antonio<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are still some outlier cities clustered in the Midwest and Northeast where homes are selling like hot cakes and prices are rising, like <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/2832\/NY\/Buffalo\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Buffalo<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/35759\/WI\/Milwaukee\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Milwaukee<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. But that\u2019s largely because they are more affordable and have a smaller pool of homes for buyers to choose from.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>A potential \u201chousing bubble\u201d<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home prices have hit new monthly records for more than two years in a row, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/11\/20\/realestate\/real-estate-bubble-crash-not-likely.html\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">raising concerns<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> about whether real estate is in \u201c<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/11\/20\/realestate\/real-estate-bubble-crash-not-likely.html\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">bubble<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201d territory\u2014when prices are unsustainably inflated. Plus, even though price growth has slowed from the breakneck pace of the pandemic, prices themselves are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-prices-rise-january-2026\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">still rising<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and remain near record highs in many parts of the country. A major inventory shortage is largely to blame\u2014which is steadily improving. <\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"datawrapper-vis-dPuch\" style=\"min-height: 423px;\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" defer src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/dPuch\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\" data-target=\"#datawrapper-vis-dPuch\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/dPuch\/full.png\" alt=\"U.S. Housing Inventory: 2012-2026 (Line chart)\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, a few experts <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aau.edu\/research-scholarship\/featured-research-topics\/study-finds-us-does-not-have-housing-shortage\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">have noted<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that the larger problem may be a shortage of <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">affordable <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">homes. Those who can afford a home today are often still buying, but most consumers are simply priced out.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Record-low affordability and economic unease<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Maybe most importantly, Americans are living through a prolonged period of uncertainty and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jchs.harvard.edu\/blog\/housing-unaffordability-soared-new-highs-2024\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">record-low affordability<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Elevated mortgage rates, stubbornly high home prices, and broad economic anxiety have made housing feel out of reach for many people.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/data-center\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin data<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, the typical homebuyer spends about 36% of their income on housing (as of March 2026), while home prices have risen roughly 40% since the pandemic.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"datawrapper-vis-25al8\" style=\"min-height: 448px;\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" defer src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/25al8\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\" data-target=\"#datawrapper-vis-25al8\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/25al8\/full.png\" alt=\"U.S. Share of Income Spent on Housing: 2012-2026 (Line chart)\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But affordability should to improve as price growth slows and wages rise. And it&#8217;s possible that prices will return to \u201c<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/return-to-normal-housing-2025\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">normal<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201d by 2030, meaning a median earner will be able to afford a median-priced house spending 30% of their income on monthly payments.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even so, the mix of financial pressure and uncertainty is reshaping how buyers and sellers behave. It\u2019s one of the biggest reasons the market feels so unstable, even without the signs of a bubble bursting.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>Is commercial real estate crashing?<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unlike the residential real estate industry, commercial real estate (CRE) has been grappling with a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/03\/20\/business\/office-market-bottom-remote-work.html\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">prolonged downturn<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that began in March 2020. It\u2019s not necessarily crashing, but it is struggling.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When the pandemic hit, most in-person activity shut down almost overnight. This led to a sudden jump in remote work, an online shopping boom, and a change in spending habits due to inflation. These changes, plus spiking interest rates, weighed heavily on office buildings and big box stores and dramatically reduced demand for commercial real estate. Trends have persisted, pushing office mortgage delinquencies to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/DRCRELEXFACBS\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">record highs<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014even as remote work <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/03\/23\/5-years-into-the-remote-work-boom-the-return-to-office-push-is-stronger-than-everheres-why.html\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">fades<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Adding another layer of uncertainty, the rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/12\/office-real-estate-stocks-tumble-as-ai-disruption-casualties-in-the-stock-market-grow-by-the-day.html\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">beginning to shape<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> investor sentiment in the sector. Some investors are increasingly wary of industries seen as more exposed to AI-driven workforce changes\u2014notably, entry-level <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2026\/02\/13\/when-will-ai-kill-white-collar-office-jobs-18-months-microsoft-mustafa-suleyman\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">white-collar roles<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> at tech companies that lease or own commercial real estate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cCommercial real estate has been caught in the crossfire of multiple major economic shifts, and it\u2019s feeling the effects,\u201d continued Fairweather. \u201cTo adapt, some companies and cities have tried to find innovative ways to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/understanding-office-to-residential-conversion\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">convert<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> vacant office buildings into residential buildings, which is positive on paper. But zoning restrictions and the cost of conversion have prevented this from becoming widespread. If current trends continue, it will take quite a while for the industry to recover.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s worth noting that the CRE downturn is nowhere near as strong as the Great Recession or <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fdic.gov\/bank\/historical\/history\/137_165.pdf\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">prolonged valuation pressures<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of the 1980s and early 1990s. Today, stress is more concentrated in specific property types and tied to structural shifts in work and interest rates rather than a broad financial crisis.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>The bottom line: The housing market is undergoing a correction, but it is not crashing<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The housing market is most likely not heading toward a crash. Instead, it\u2019s undergoing a long-term correction. A housing market correction is a slower, often uneven normalization in prices, inventory, demand, and other economic factors.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Today, prices are flat or falling in many overheated markets, sales are slower, inventory is building, and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/buyers-vs-sellers-january-2025\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">buyers have more negotiating power<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. There isn\u2019t the wave of foreclosures, plummeting home values, or systemic financial stress that defines a crash. For some buyers who can <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/is-now-a-good-time-to-buy-a-house\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">afford to buy now<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, today\u2019s market may offer more opportunities than the highly competitive conditions of the early 2020s.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s hard to say what the future will look like. But if current housing trends continue, the housing market will become more accessible for more people in the not-too-distant future. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The housing market has swung from hot to cold since the pandemic, but economists are confident that we\u2019re not heading towards a crash. Here\u2019s why. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":559,"featured_media":109131,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[34276],"tags":[34529,34453,34619],"coauthors":[34342],"class_list":["post-109125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-buying-a-home","tag-buying-faq","tag-national","tag-selling-definition"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is the Housing Market Going to Crash? | Redfin<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The housing market has gone cold since the pandemic, but economists are confident that we\u2019re not heading towards a crash. 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