{"id":72123,"date":"2021-04-13T13:26:41","date_gmt":"2021-04-13T20:26:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/?p=72123"},"modified":"2021-04-13T13:26:41","modified_gmt":"2021-04-13T20:26:41","slug":"are-we-in-a-housing-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/are-we-in-a-housing-bubble\/","title":{"rendered":"Are We In a Housing Bubble? Will the Housing Market Crash in 2021?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Today\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/us-housing-market\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">housing market<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is fierce! Due to remote work and record-low mortgage rates, Americans are relocating and purchasing homes at an all-time high. However, there is a major problem &#8211; there aren\u2019t nearly as many homes for sale as there are buyers. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And this severe housing shortage is fueling <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/homes-sold-above-asking-price-san-jose-sacramento\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">record-high prices<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/real-estate-bidding-wars-february-2021\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">cutthroat competition<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With the red-hot real estate market we\u2019re experiencing, many consumers are understandably concerned. The soaring home prices and a lack of homes for sale may feel eerily similar to the 2007 housing bubble that led to The Great Recession.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, is there a reason to worry? Are we in a housing bubble and headed for another housing market crash? Let\u2019s take a look.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-72128\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/16495-NW-Rossetta-St-Portland-OR-1-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"two story home in housing bubble portland or\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/16495-NW-Rossetta-St-Portland-OR-1-1024x768.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/16495-NW-Rossetta-St-Portland-OR-1-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/16495-NW-Rossetta-St-Portland-OR-1-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/16495-NW-Rossetta-St-Portland-OR-1-200x150.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/16495-NW-Rossetta-St-Portland-OR-1-840x630.jpg 840w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/16495-NW-Rossetta-St-Portland-OR-1-400x300.jpg 400w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/16495-NW-Rossetta-St-Portland-OR-1.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What is a housing bubble?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Before we jump into our current situation, let\u2019s first take a look at what a housing bubble actually is. Also known as a real estate bubble, a housing bubble occurs when home prices rise at a rapid rate to a level of instability. Housing bubbles generally begin when there is a shortage of inventory and an increase in demand in a market. As the prices start rising, speculation begins to take effect. Consumers expect prices to increase further, so everyone wants to buy a home as quickly as possible. This drives up demand further and prices continue to skyrocket.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As we know from physics, what goes up must come down. So at some point, the steep housing prices become unsustainable and homes become overvalued. When this happens, demand begins to decrease and therefore, supply starts to rise. Suddenly, we\u2019re in a situation where there are more homes for sale than prospective buyers. As a result, housing prices can fall drastically &#8211; and the bubble bursts.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What leads to a housing bubble?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bubbles are a phenomenon that can happen in just about any industry, whether it\u2019s homes, stocks, or gold. Traditionally, bubbles don\u2019t often occur in the housing market because of the large financial responsibility associated with <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/guides\/how-much-does-it-cost-to-buy-a-house\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">purchasing a home<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. However, with the right combination of factors, a housing bubble can begin. Here are several situations and variables that can occur, drive up demand, and lead to a housing bubble.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>A rise in economic activity.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> When the economy is doing generally well, people have more disposable income to spend on housing.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Low mortgage interest rates. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This puts homeownership within reach for many hopeful homebuyers.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Loose mortgage lending practices. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is a major factor that led to The Great Recession as many lenders offered home loans to homebuyers without regard for their ability to repay.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>New mortgage products<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Specifically, those allowing the buyer to make low monthly payments. This can make the idea of homeownership appear more affordable than it actually is.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>A sudden increase in migration.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> For example, if a large group of homebuyers relocates from <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/17151\/CA\/San-Francisco\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">San Francisco, CA<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/30818\/TX\/Austin\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Austin, TX<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; this will increase demand and shrink supply in Austin, driving prices up further.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>The time it takes to build a house. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It generally takes a long time to build a new home which makes supply slow to respond to dramatic increases in demand.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Speculative and risky behavior<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. This can lead to more property investors entering the market, along with homebuyers who can\u2019t afford the homes they are purchasing.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What happens when housing bubbles burst?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Housing bubbles can cause major problems in the larger economy. Once the bubble bursts, many people may realize that they have borrowed more than their home is worth and could struggle to keep up with their house payments if they lose their job or find themselves in other financial trouble. This can lead to foreclosures and a loss of financial security across the board. However, if a homeowner maintains a steady income, they should still be able to make <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfinmortgage.com\/mortgage\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">mortgage payments<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and hold onto their home even if their home goes down in value.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Are we in a housing bubble now?\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, will the increase in prices and shortage of housing inventory result in a housing market crash in 2021? Most experts don\u2019t think so.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The circumstances influencing the housing market today are different than those of the 2006-2007 housing bubble. The bubble that eventually led to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thebalance.com\/the-great-recession-of-2008-explanation-with-dates-4056832\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Great Recession<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> was primarily a result of irresponsible lending. Just about anyone who wanted a mortgage could get one, even if they didn\u2019t have the income to afford it. However, this time mortgage requirements are stricter and the current demand isn\u2019t caused by reckless lending. It\u2019s the result of true supply and demand.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cI wouldn\u2019t call this a housing bubble because the demand for homes is truly there and the buyers can afford these high prices,\u201d said Redfin Chief Economist <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/darylfairweather\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\">Daryl Fairweather<\/a>. \u201cBubbles burst; I don\u2019t see that happening.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Instead, Fairweather believes that as the U.S. reaches herd immunity from COVID-19 and the economy rebounds, the demand and home prices will slowly begin to come down. \u201cThat\u2019s because mortgage rates will make buying a home more expensive, and Americans will have more options for how to spend their money. Instead of spending on homes, Americans will want to spend on activities like vacations, parties, and dining.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What should you do if you\u2019re buying a house right now?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While no one can say for sure what will happen with the housing market, it\u2019s important to be prepared if you are currently buying a home. The most important takeaway, if you are currently house-hunting, is don\u2019t buy more than you can\u2019t afford.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Right now, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/guides\/buy\/how-to-win-a-bidding-war\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">bidding wars <\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">are at an all-time high and buyers are paying well over asking to secure a home. So before embarking on the homebuying process, we recommend using an <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/how-much-house-can-i-afford\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">affordability calculator<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to help you determine your budget. This can help you set expectations ahead of time, so you know what you can offer and when to walk away.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s also important to work with a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/how-to-choose-a-real-estate-agent\/\" data-wpel-link=\"exclude\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">real estate agent<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> who has your best interest in mind and a deep understanding of current market conditions. They can help you navigate the ins and outs of this tricky seller\u2019s market.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b><i>Redfin does not provide legal or financial advice.<\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> This article is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional advice from a licensed attorney or financial advisor.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the red-hot real estate market we\u2019re experiencing, many are wondering if we are in a housing bubble and headed for another housing market crash. Find out here.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":516,"featured_media":69539,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[34276],"tags":[3621,4007,3242],"coauthors":[12438],"class_list":["post-72123","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-buying-a-home","tag-finance","tag-home-buyer-tips","tag-mortgage-tips"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Are We In a Housing Bubble? 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