{"id":17342,"date":"2013-12-09T12:02:55","date_gmt":"2013-12-09T20:02:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redfindevelop.wpengine.com\/blog\/research\/?p=17342"},"modified":"2020-10-06T17:08:38","modified_gmt":"2020-10-07T00:08:38","slug":"83-of-homebuyers-think-a-mortgage-rate-below-5-is-normal-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/83-of-homebuyers-think-a-mortgage-rate-below-5-is-normal-2\/","title":{"rendered":"83% of Homebuyers Think a Mortgage Rate Below 5% is Normal"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>A December Fed Taper Would Help the Housing Recovery in 2014<\/strong><\/em><br \/>\nAfter last week\u2019s upbeat jobs report, we are again on <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/moneybeat\/2013\/12\/06\/after-jobs-report-taper-is-on-the-table\/\" title=\"After Jobs Report, Taper is on the Table\">taper watch<\/a>. The Federal Reserve meets next from December 17-18, and many are debating whether or not the Fed will keep its easy money policies in place. One argument that hasn\u2019t been considered is that the best timing for a taper may actually be in December, at least for the housing market.<br \/>\n<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/Fed-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"Fed\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-17346\" \/><br \/>\nSure, unwinding the Fed\u2019s stimulus program will boost mortgage rates and make home-buying more expensive. However, data from Redfin\u2019s recent survey of homebuyers reveals a highly distorted view of what a \u201cnormal\u201d mortgage interest rate looks like. A rate jump now would help homebuyers adjust to higher rates during real estate\u2019s slow season and keep the housing market, a top contributor to U.S. economic growth, on a smoother path in 2014.<br \/>\nAs a technology-powered real estate brokerage, we regularly poll our home-buying clients to get their perspectives on the real estate market. In our <a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/research\/?p=17217\" title=\"Homebuyer Confidence Picks Up For the First Time in 2013; 28 Percent Believe Now is Good Time to Buy \">November survey <\/a>of homebuyers across Redfin\u2019s 22 major metro areas, we asked buyers what they considered \u201cnormal\u201d for a 30-year fixed mortgage rate.<br \/>\nThe results gave us serious pause. A combined 83 percent considered a \u201cnormal\u201d rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage loan to fall under 5 percent.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/Normal-rates.png\" alt=\"Normal rates\" width=\"804\" height=\"459\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17343\" \/><br \/>\nUnder 5 percent? While rates hovered around 4.3 percent in November, they have averaged 6.7 percent since 1990. Rates never once fell below 5 percent until March 2009.<br \/>\nEven more surprising, both seasoned and first-time buyers think a rate below 5 percent is normal; the only difference between the two is that one in three first-timers think a rate below 4 percent is normal, compared to one and four seasoned homebuyers.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/Rates-by-experience.png\" alt=\"Rates by experience\" width=\"804\" height=\"459\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17344\" \/><br \/>\nClearly, the Fed\u2019s easy-money policies since the housing crash have trained buyers to expect mortgage rates that start with threes and fours. Even more worrying, buyers are showing a high degree of intolerance toward mortgage rate fluctuations, another revelation from this month&#8217;s survey. More than 40 percent said they would be unable or unwilling to buy a home if rates rose much further.<br \/>\nThese data suggest that the housing recovery could be in for an especially bumpy road in 2014 as the Fed weans the country off economic life support. As that happens, it is reasonable to expect rates to exceed 5 percent. In reaction, many buyers will slam on the brakes and take time to adjust their budget, neighborhood preferences, and expectations accordingly.<br \/>\nThis summer gave us an idea of what we can expect. Two weeks after mortgage rates spiked about 1 percentage point in June, the number of Redfin customers taking tours and signing offers dropped 14 percent and 12 percent, respectively. At the same time, the number of brand new homes sold across the country <a href=\"http:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/money\/business\/2013\/08\/23\/new-home-sales\/2691323\/\" title=\"New home sales plunge 13.4%\">plunged 13.4%<\/a> from June to July.<br \/>\nWith the real estate market in its slow season as the holidays approach, a December taper would give buyers time to come to terms with the change before they kick off their 2014 home search. An early 2014 taper, on the other hand, would throw water on the market when it\u2019s really heating up.<br \/>\nInstead of writing a letter to Santa this year, we\u2019re writing a letter to the Federal Reserve. Let\u2019s get this show on the road so buyers can start the new year off with grounded expectations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> The housing recovery could be in for an especially bumpy road in 2014 as the Fed weans the country off economic life support.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13183,"featured_media":2931,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-17342","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing-market-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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