{"id":22325,"date":"2015-07-23T08:59:30","date_gmt":"2015-07-23T08:59:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redfindevelop.wpengine.com\/blog\/research\/?p=22325"},"modified":"2020-10-06T17:08:29","modified_gmt":"2020-10-07T00:08:29","slug":"july","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/july\/","title":{"rendered":"Welcome to the First-Ever Redfin Housing Demand Index"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cooling Homebuyer Demand in June Suggests Home-Price Growth will Slow in August; the Most Substantial Price Relief Since February 2012<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

August Prices Expected Up Just 2.2% and Sales Up 4.6% Year Over Year in 15-Metro Composite<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Today we debut the Redfin Housing Demand Index<\/strong>, the industry\u2019s first and only measure of homebuyer activity prior to purchase. The Demand Index, an early indicator of housing-market performance, is based on millions of visits to Redfin.com home-listing pages, and thousands of Redfin customers requesting home tours and writing offers in 15 major metro areas1<\/sup>. It is scaled to equal 100 on January 2013, which is the first month of the estimation period. The Demand Index is adjusted for Redfin\u2019s market share growth.<\/p>\n

Demand Index Details for June<\/h3>\n

The Demand Index debuted today at a level of 113, up 13 percent year over year, the smallest increase since January. In 2015, the Demand Index followed a similar seasonal pattern to previous years, increasing from January to April, then beginning to decline. However, this year\u2019s 6.7 percent decline from May to June is steeper than the 3.9 percent decrease for the same period in 2014. Over the past 30 months, the Demand Index has averaged 103.
\n\"housing<\/a><\/p>\n

Price and Sales Forecasts<\/h3>\n

Redfin used its demand data through mid-July and industry housing data from 15 major-metro areas1<\/sup> to forecast year-over-year changes to national home prices and sales in the current month and one month ahead. Redfin forecasts that year over year, home prices will be up about 4.3 percent in July, and just 2.2 percent in August.
\n\"housing<\/a>
\nWe expect the number of homes sold in July to grow by 14.3 percent year over year, and by 4.6 percent in August.
\n\"Demand<\/a><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s Take<\/h3>\n

This year\u2019s seasonal slowdown is more extreme than normal due to buyer fatigue over high prices and low selection, combined with gradually increasing mortgage interest rates. Buyers are still in the market, but they\u2019re setting boundaries on what they\u2019re willing to pay.
\n“Homebuyers in D.C. have reached their limit when it comes to price,” said Dan Galloway, a Redfin agent in Washington, D.C. “As recently as May, offers $100,000 above list price were common, but home prices are now reaching a line that buyers will not cross.”
\nTwo major factors driving the forecasts are fewer people making offers and lower list prices for homes going under contract.
\nHomebuyers are still touring in force, but they\u2019re more price sensitive. Fewer are making offers, and when they do, they\u2019re buying less expensive homes. The median list price of pending homes fell by $10,000 to $300,000 in just the last two weeks.
\n\"housing<\/a><\/p>\n

Redfin Forecast Models<\/h3>\n

The price model includes:<\/strong><\/p>\n