{"id":35512,"date":"2015-08-03T06:10:18","date_gmt":"2015-08-03T13:10:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redfindevelop.wpengine.com\/blog\/?p=35512"},"modified":"2020-10-06T17:08:29","modified_gmt":"2020-10-07T00:08:29","slug":"the-housing-market-slowdown-in-5-easy-charts-and-why-it-might-be-a-good-thing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/the-housing-market-slowdown-in-5-easy-charts-and-why-it-might-be-a-good-thing\/","title":{"rendered":"The Housing Market Slowdown in 5 Easy Charts, And Why It Might Be a Good Thing"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"housing<\/a>
\nLast week brought a bushel of\u00a0economic\u00a0data and a Senate plan<\/a>\u00a0to tap your home loan to build highways. This week brings news on jobs and the financial health of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Thursday,\u00a0elephants crowd into a room<\/a>\u00a0at Quicken Loans Arena<\/a>.\u00a0Maybe the location will inspire them to talk rents, homeownership and mortgages, but we won’t hold our breath. Read on.<\/p>\n

Could a\u00a0slowdown be good?<\/h2>\n

<\/b>Housing has been one of the economy\u2019s strong points lately, perhaps to a fault. Prices keep hitting record highs in cities like San Francisco<\/a> and bidding wars have become routine in much of the country.\u00a0In Denver<\/a>, which has\u00a0notched double-digit increases for eight straight months, a Redfin customer recently sold a house he bought in 2013. In just two years, he netted a $100,000 profit<\/strong>, which he plans to spend on law school.
\nHis timing is good. Denver<\/a>\u00a0market manager Michelle Ackerman is reporting early signs of a slowdown, with fewer homes getting multiple offers and smaller crowds at open houses.
\nSales typically ebb at this time of year, but we\u2019re seeing signs of an enduring slowdown, and that\u2019s not necessarily bad. Call it a normalization of the housing market.
\nLet’s look at the data.<\/strong> Redfin’s Housing Demand Index<\/a>, which tracks home tours and purchase offers in 15 metro areas to give one of the earliest signals in the market, showed a 6.7 percent drop in June, a far steeper decline than at the same time last year. We expect prices to grow a modest 2.2 percent in August.
\n\"Redfin<\/a>
\nThe National Association of Realtors\u2019 pending sales<\/a> index, another early indicator of activity, also took a dive, meaning agents reported fewer purchase contracts in the pipeline. While it\u2019s routine for sales to slow this time of year, the steep decline caught economists off guard.
\n\"pending<\/a>
\nTwo broad measures of prices<\/strong> — Redfin\u2019s Market Tracker<\/a> and the S&P\u00a0Case-Shiller <\/a>Home Price Index — are decelerating.
\n\"Home<\/a>
\n Properties aren\u2019t losing<\/i> value, they\u2019re just appreciating more slowly.<\/strong> That\u2019s a good thing in this environment, especially for buyers.
\n\"Case-Shiller<\/a>
\n<\/a><\/p>\n

What’s the upshot?<\/h2>\n

Mortgage credit is tighter than it used to be, wage growth is weak and a lot of houses already are priced out of reach for a lot of people. Even though companies are hiring, employers aren’t spending<\/a>\u00a0more on workers. A\u00a0broad measure of compensation from the\u00a0Labor Department\u00a0showed almost no growth in pay and benefits last quarter, a report economists at PNC Financial Services<\/a> called “a definite disappointment” that might give pause to the Fed as it ponders a rate hike.
\nGlobal pressures are being brought to bear on housing, too. Economists at Wells Fargo<\/a>, the nation’s biggest mortgage lender, last week trimmed price forecasts for this year and next because the strong U.S. dollar might discourage foreign buyers in markets such as Miami<\/a> and New York.
\nHomeownership – so last decade?<\/strong>\u00a0That Redfin customer in Denver who’s cashing out is part of another phenomenon, the dwindling rate of homeownership. This year, the share of Americans who own houses<\/a>\u00a0fell to its lowest since 1967.
\n\"homeownership<\/a>
\nDemographics are part of the story there. The U.S. is getting younger<\/strong> as the millennial generation crests. But since 2007, while the population of 18- to 34-year-olds grew by 3 million, the number of young adults living independently from mom and dad actually fell<\/i>, from 42.7 million to 42.2 million this year, according to the Pew Research Center<\/a>. It’s a confounding development born of student debt and the slow economic recovery. As millennials\u00a0enter their 30s, we think they’ll buy houses, but this is uncharted territory<\/strong>. No one knows for sure.
\nIn the big picture, declining homeownership could be significant. Despite the roller-coaster ride of the past decade, homeownership remains a reliable way to build wealth and savings over the long run, especially with today\u2019s low interest rates<\/a>. If fewer of us can buy in, investors will be the ones reaping the benefits of equity building. That spells trouble for the wealth gap<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The rent is still too #$%@ high, too<\/h2>\n

Not only are more Americans renting, they’re paying more rent<\/a> than\u00a0ever. It’s a familiar story, but things are getting worse<\/strong>, with one in four households shelling out more\u00a0than half their income toward rent. And it’s affecting everyone, not just lower-income families, according to\u00a0Harvard<\/a>. In Washington, the housing-industrial complex is sounding the alarm with editorials<\/a> and an\u00a0ad campaign<\/a>\u00a0featuring musicians performing in overpriced apartments (John and Jacob<\/a>, Timothy Bloom<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Carley Rae Jepsen<\/a>).
\nIn October, housers<\/a>\u00a0will take the #$%@ rent message to Saint Anselm College<\/a>, the epicenter of New Hampshire politics, where they hope to get the attention of all those presidential candidates (both species). Stay tuned.<\/p>\n

Etc.<\/h2>\n

“No dragons, no zombies<\/strong>.” David Simon (“The Wire”<\/a>) has a promising new show about — wait for it — housing. Public housing<\/a>, to be exact. “Show Me a Hero” debuts Aug. 16 on HBO.
\nExperian<\/a> reminds us that young adults have lower credit scores and incomes. Zzzz.\u00a0\u00a0More\u00a0interesting: Millennials aren’t big fans of credit cards.<\/strong>
\nBanks<\/a> are becoming less entrepreneurial when it comes to credit. They blame government regulation — no surprise there. A third have rejected creditworthy mortgage applicants<\/strong> because of\u00a0rules adopted since\u00a0the financial collapse.
\nCute dogs and homemade pie. Clickbait<\/a>\u00a0from Bloomberg and a good read for would-be buyers.
\nThe Optimism Boom<\/strong>. An Allstate\/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll<\/a> found that two-thirds of Americans think their hometowns are doing just fine.
\nFun with maps. Yeah, this. Mean streets<\/a>\u00a0from CityObservatory.
\n\"urban<\/a>
\nShould you and yours SO buy a house before the wedding?<\/strong> Redfin millennial Katy Klein makes the case at Money<\/a>. Congrats, Lady!
\nWant to chat? Vent? Join the mailing list? I’m at Lorraine.woellert@redfin.com<\/strong>. You can find all Redfin news and analysis\u00a0here<\/a>.
\nOther popular posts:<\/span><\/strong>
\n1.\u00a0How to Search for a Home When You Have Pets<\/a><\/span>
\n2.\u00a0Identify and Prevent Illness-Causing Elements in Your Home<\/a><\/span>
\n3.\u00a0Introducing Your Kids to Birdwatching in Your Backyard<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This week, we get a read on the job market and mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac report on their financial health. Thursday, elephants crowd into a room at Quicken Loans Arena. Maybe the location will inspire them to talk housing, but we’re not holding our breath. Also: Zombies, dragons, Carly Rae Jepsen, fun with maps, and that #$%@ high rent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13355,"featured_media":33527,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[32,74],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-35512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing-market-news","tag-housing-market-tracker","tag-mortgage-tips"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe housing market slowdown in 5 easy charts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A housing market slowdown might not be all bad. 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