{"id":35792,"date":"2015-08-17T09:37:39","date_gmt":"2015-08-17T16:37:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redfindevelop.wpengine.com\/blog\/?p=35792"},"modified":"2020-10-06T17:08:29","modified_gmt":"2020-10-07T00:08:29","slug":"home-prices-are-rising-but-mortgage-debt-is-falling-what-gives","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-prices-are-rising-but-mortgage-debt-is-falling-what-gives\/","title":{"rendered":"Home Prices Are Rising But Mortgage Debt is Falling. What Gives?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last week, we got even more evidence that the mortgage system is seriously out of whack. This week, the Fed speaks and we get several reads on the housing market. The Census Bureau reports on new construction, the National Association of Realtors releases existing homes data and Redfin\u2019s Market Tracker<\/a> has July prices and sales. Across the pond, architects have designed an incinerator that blows smoke rings. Seriously. Read on.<\/p>\n

Prices are up, mortgage borrowing is down. Huh?<\/h2>\n

Mortgage borrowers are doing a better job making their payments, and it\u2019s no wonder. Only people with the best credit histories are getting loans.
\nA report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York<\/a> quantifies what we\u2019ve known for a while, that the anything-goes mortgage heyday is well behind us. Of course that\u2019s good. We don\u2019t want a rerun of the mortgage bubble. Foreclosures are at their lowest since 2007 and delinquencies are down.
\nHere\u2019s the flip side. As a country, we\u2019re holding less mortgage debt, even as houses get more expensive<\/strong>. The sum of all mortgage balances fell $55 billion in the second quarter, to $8.1 trillion, the Fed found. During that period home prices<\/a> rose about 6 percent from a year earlier.
\nWhat’s happening? Fewer of us are buying houses<\/a>, buyers are putting more money down and cash investors are still big players in the market.
\nThe broken mortgage system is a big culprit in all three cases<\/strong>. Lenders and borrowers are subject to more government regulation and banks have drawn their own rules tighter still, going to great lengths to avoid losses, fines and public shaming. The upshot–mortgages are harder to get, even for people who deserve them. Look at this chart from the Fed.
\n\"mortgage<\/a><\/p>\n

What\u2019s your credit score?<\/h2>\n

The median credit score for mortgage borrowers was about 720 between 1999 and 2007. Since the recession, it\u2019s been 765. Between 1999 and 2007, 90 percent of borrowers who originated mortgages had credit scores above 590. Now it\u2019s 645, Fed economists<\/a> found. That\u2019s a huge shift and just one symptom of tighter lending.<\/p>\n

Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie<\/h2>\n

One reason banks won’t risk lending to homebuyers is that the federal government is already doing it. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae buy nearly all of our home loans<\/strong>, then sell them to investors. Investors buy them because they\u2019re almost risk free. If I stop paying on my Fannie, Freddie or Ginnie mortgage, U.S. taxpayers will make sure the investor who bought the loan still gets his money. That\u2019s why so many pension funds invest in Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie loans–they like the safety.<\/strong>
\nIn July, Ginnie Mae, which backs FHA, VA and Department of Agriculture loans, hit a new record, guaranteeing more than $47 billion in mortgages.
\n\"Ginnie<\/a>
\nGinnie is doing a public service, \u201ckeeping mortgage credit available to middle class America,\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0President Ted Tozer<\/a> said. He\u2019s right. But the agency\u2019s success is a bad thing, too. Ginnie and its cousins might be hurting homebuyers by crowding out banks that would be more willing to lend if they didn\u2019t have to compete with the U.S. government.
\nGinnie\u2019s critics point to a recent FHA decision to cut loan costs. The agency was trying to make homeownership more affordable<\/a>, but so far there\u2019s no evidence that low-income or minority borrowers were helped<\/strong>, according to the free-market American Action Forum<\/a> and American Enterprise Institute<\/a>. Instead, buyers have taken advantage of the lower rates to buy more expensive homes. AEI analyst Ed Pinto calls it a \u201ctextbook case\u201d of cheaper credit leading to higher prices.<\/strong>
\nThe fact is, the U.S. government has dominated the mortgage business for nearly a century and things worked pretty well for most of that time. But now the system is broken and neither Washington nor Wall Street want to do the heavy lifting to fix it.
\n<\/a><\/p>\n

Etc.<\/h2>\n

So how will we know when the mortgage market has fully recovered? When the government share falls from the current 71 percent to about 50 percent, where it was in 2001, says the Urban Institute<\/a>.
\nHomebuilders<\/a> are feeling better about things. Unfortunately, their optimism has yet to\u00a0translate to more single-family construction<\/a>.
\nEarthquake? Flood?<\/strong> There\u2019s an app for that<\/a>. HUD is making it easier to get help after a disaster.
\nFewer people are carpooling<\/a>, Census reports. More than 76 percent of people still drive alone to work. But the share of urban-dwelling millennials who drive to work has fallen<\/strong> 4 percent since 2006.
\nHousing affordability<\/a> in California is getting worse. Only 30 percent of California households could afford a $485,100 median-priced home in the second quarter, down from 34 percent.
\nCorelogic updates its foreclosure<\/a> data. Hint: It\u2019s all good.
\nFun with architecture<\/strong>: An incinerator that blows smoke. Er, smoke rings<\/a>. And it has a ski slope. Coolness factor: Very high.
\n\"green<\/a>
\n 
\nWhat do you want to know? Drop a note to lorraine.woellert@redfin.com.
\nGet all Redfin<\/a> news and analysis here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last week, we got even more evidence that the mortgage system is seriously out of whack. This week, the Fed speaks and we get several reads on the housing market. The Census Bureau reports on new construction, the National Association of Realtors reports existing homes data and Redfin\u2019s Market Tracker has July prices and sales. Across the pond, architects have designed an incinerator that blows smoke. Smoke rings. Seriously.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13355,"featured_media":33527,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[32,74],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-35792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing-market-news","tag-housing-market-tracker","tag-mortgage-tips"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHome Prices are Rising but Mortgage Debt is Falling<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There's more evidence that the mortgage system is seriously out of whack, and we get a read on home prices and sales from Redfin's Market Tracker.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-prices-are-rising-but-mortgage-debt-is-falling-what-gives\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Home Prices Are Rising But Mortgage Debt is Falling. 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