{"id":36015,"date":"2015-08-25T05:00:48","date_gmt":"2015-08-25T12:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redfindevelop.wpengine.com\/blog\/?p=36015"},"modified":"2020-10-06T17:08:28","modified_gmt":"2020-10-07T00:08:28","slug":"redfin-july-forecasts-hit-the-mark-as-housing-demand-cools-for-fourth-consecutive-month","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/redfin-july-forecasts-hit-the-mark-as-housing-demand-cools-for-fourth-consecutive-month\/","title":{"rendered":"Redfin July Forecasts Hit the Mark as Housing Demand Cools for Fourth Consecutive Month"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prices Expected to Rise 5.3% in September; Sales Will Gain 10% Year Over Year<\/i><\/h3>\n

The Redfin Housing Demand Index decreased 5 percent in July, falling to 108 from 113 in June, the fourth consecutive month-over-month decline. Redfin real estate agents report that the market is rapidly cooling, with buyers reaching their limit on prices and showing less interest in hot home listings. So why does the market feel like it\u2019s cooling so much when the numbers are still pretty strong for September?
\nIt\u2019s because the market was so hot this spring\u2014the Demand Index reached 124 in March and April\u2014so we\u2019re feeling a fast fall from a high point. However, even though the tumble makes the market feel soft, the Demand Index is still nine points higher than July of last year.
\n\"Redfin-Demand-Index-August-2015\"<\/p>\n

JULY FORECAST CHECK-IN<\/h3>\n

Using Redfin demand data through mid-July and housing metrics from 15 major metro areas, Redfin forecasted July home prices and sales on July 23<\/a>, the industry\u2019s earliest forecast of U.S. home values and sales.
\nIn July, the median sale price increased 4.6 percent from a year earlier, very close to our July 23 forecast<\/a> of 4.3 percent growth. The Redfin sales forecast for July was also on target, with sales up 14 percent year-over-year against our forecast of 14.3 percent.<\/p>\n

AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER FORECASTS<\/h3>\n

For August, we forecast prices<\/a> to rise 2.2 percent and sales to increase 4.6 percent compared to this time last year. In September, we expect prices to increase 5.3 percent from last year and sales to rise by 10 percent. Based on home price data from the first 24 days of August and how strong September prices are looking, price growth of only 2.2 percent in August seems low. We now expect the actual number to be a point or two higher.
\nPrices and sales in 2015 have outperformed 2014 levels every month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/th>\nJuly Forecast<\/th>\nJuly Actual<\/th>\nAugust Forecast<\/th>\nSeptember Forecast<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Sales<\/td>\n+14.3%<\/td>\n+14%<\/td>\n+4.6%<\/td>\n+10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median Sale Price<\/td>\n+4.3%<\/td>\n+4.6%<\/td>\n+2.2%<\/td>\n+5.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\"Redfin-Sale-Price-Forecast-August-2015\"
\n\"Redfin-Home-Sales-Forecast-August-2015\"<\/p>\n

THE REDFIN UPSHOT<\/h3>\n

When compared to September 2014 the housing market looks strong. \u00a0Even though the Demand Index has fallen every month for four straight months, buyer interest in July was still higher than last year. Additionally, newly listed homes for sale increased 7.6 percent year-over-year, which buoyed our September sales forecast.
\nHowever, we mentioned that demand is falling from its spring high very quickly, and we think this will continue into the fall months.
\nIn Denver<\/a>, where half of new listings sell in six days or less, Redfin agents and their customers are seeing the slowdown first hand.
\n\u201cIt feels like the market is at a standstill,\u201d Redfin agent Michelle Ackerman said. \u201cShowings have dropped off significantly.\u201d Ackerman recently put a home on the market for less than $300,000 in one of the city\u2019s top-rated school districts. She expected 30 showings in the first weekend and three offers. She got nine showings and one offer.
\n\u201cThe market is changing week by week, and today\u2019s buyers are more likely to walk away from a home they feel is overpriced than last month\u2019s buyers were,\u201d Ackerman said. \u201cSellers now have to negotiate with buyers to make a sale happen.\u201d<\/p>\n

Redfin Forecast Models<\/h3>\n

The price model includes:<\/p>\n