{"id":36358,"date":"2015-09-14T12:14:55","date_gmt":"2015-09-14T19:14:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redfindevelop.wpengine.com\/blog\/?p=36358"},"modified":"2020-10-06T17:08:27","modified_gmt":"2020-10-07T00:08:27","slug":"the-feds-wool-socks-and-why-a-rate-hike-would-be-better-for-housing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/the-feds-wool-socks-and-why-a-rate-hike-would-be-better-for-housing\/","title":{"rendered":"The Fed Needs Wool Socks; Why A Rate Hike Might Be Better for Housing"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"housing<\/a>
\nLast week, homebuyers gave a<\/span> collective shrug<\/span><\/a> to higher mortgage rates. Not that rates are higher.<\/span> They\u2019re not<\/span><\/a>. They will be, but house hunters have more important things to worry about. Not so much the Fed. This week, Janet Yellen & Co. will decide whether to raise rates for the first time in almost a decade. Go for it, Madam Chair!<\/strong> Also, the world\u2019s first crowd-sourced skyscraper, and how suburban living is like smoking.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Fed’s Wool Socks<\/span><\/h2>\n

What will the Fed do? It\u2019s a coin toss. What <\/span>should<\/span><\/i> the Fed do? Raise rates.<\/span>
\nA rate hike is like a vote of confidence in the U.S. economy, which is doing pretty well. We\u2019re creating about 212,000 jobs a month, help-wanted ads are at a record high and consumers are spending. Yes, we\u2019re beset by feeble wage growth and labor-market <\/span>dropouts<\/span><\/a>, but things are better than they were.<\/span>
\nThen there\u2019s the rest of the world. The global economy is flirting with <\/span>recession<\/span><\/a>. Europe, <\/span>China<\/span><\/a> and Latin America are in deep trouble. The head of the International Monetary Fund has urged the Fed <\/span>not to rush<\/span><\/a>.<\/span>
\nLabor unions and civil rights groups are amping up political <\/span>pressure<\/span><\/a>\u00a0to stay the course. \u201cLet our wages grow,\u201d is the group\u2019s mantra.<\/span>
\nSo even though U.S. economic data all but screams for a rate hike, the odds are only 50-50 for Thursday\u2019s Fed announcement.<\/span><\/p>\n

So What?<\/h2>\n

<\/b>The housing market would barely feel a gradual rate hike<\/a>. But a big, quick jump in borrowing costs could spook markets. For homeowners and buyers, it\u2019s safer for the Fed to start sooner and take small steps. If the bank waits and things go wrong, it could be forced to raise rates too high, too fast.<\/span>
\n\u201cThis isn\u2019t monetary policy, it\u2019s behavioral economics,\u201d Redfin Chief Economist Nela Richardson said. \u201cThey\u2019re causing a lot of anxiety and emotional angst over something that won\u2019t have a big effect if they do it right.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Put Another Way…<\/h2>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s time to man up, find some wool socks, lose those cold feet and hike rates.\u201d \u2013 <\/span>Chris Low<\/i><\/b>, chief economist, FTN Financial Networks<\/span><\/i>
\n\u201cWhile we think the Fed should hike rates in September (actually let us be clear, they should have hiked rates back in June) we have to remember what we think they should do can differ from what they will do. And in this instance, it would take nothing short of a very uncharacteristic show of courage to lift rates.\u201d \u2013 <\/span>Tom Porcelli<\/i><\/b>, chief economist, RBC Capital Markets<\/span><\/i>
\n \u00a0<\/span>\u201cRaising rates is NOT about \u2018telling the market who is boss,\u2019 \u2018protecting financiers,\u2019 \u2018just getting on with it already,\u2019 or \u2018building up ammo for the next crisis.\u2019 The rationale is simple and consistent. The labor market is healing \u2026. Waiting too long to raise rates risks a more aggressive pace of hikes thereafter.\u201d \u2013 <\/span>Neil Dutta<\/i><\/b>, head of economics, Renaissance Macro Research<\/span><\/i>
\n<\/a>
\n\u201cThe Fed needs to set policy based on where the economy is expected to be 12 to 18 months from now, and there should be a lot less slack. \u201c \u2013 <\/span>Scott Brown<\/i><\/b>, chief economist, Raymond James & Associates<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Etc.<\/h2>\n

Bad-guy roundup, <\/b>yee-hah!<\/i><\/b> The Justice Department said it would go after <\/span>bad bankers<\/span><\/a>. Ummmm.<\/span>
\nOh, me? My money\u2019s in commercial real estate<\/b>. The world\u2019s first <\/span>crowd-funded skyscraper<\/span><\/a> is going up in Bogata, where more than 3,800 Colombians have a collective $170 million stake in the 67-story building.<\/span>
\nCigarettes and suburbs<\/b>. The <\/span>Surgeon General <\/span><\/a>says unwalkable neighborhoods might be bad for your health. <\/span>Bold<\/span>.<\/span><\/a>
\nWhere exactly is the #$%@! rent too high?<\/b> Harvard\u2019s Joint Center for Housing Studies <\/span>maps it out<\/span><\/a>. <\/span>
\nBudget brouhaha<\/b>. Congress has to pass a budget in a couple weeks or the government will shut down again. Un. Cool. Meanwhile, the deficit shrank to $64.4 billion in August, $59 billion smaller than it was a year ago, and tax revenue is up. \u00a0<\/span>
\nForeclosure update.<\/b> Sales of bank-owned homes hit a new low, <\/span>CoreLogic<\/span><\/a> says. <\/span>
\nShameless Plug Dept<\/b>. What do <\/span>Brooklyn<\/a><\/span> and <\/span>Grand Rapids<\/span><\/a> have in common? C\u2019mon, guess.<\/span>
\nQuestions? Comments? Lorraine.woellert@redfin.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Will the Fed raise rates? Who knows. Should they? Absolutely. We explain why a September rate hike might be better for housing. Also: the world\u2019s first crowd-sourced skyscraper and is suburban living like smoking?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13355,"featured_media":42742,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[32,74],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-36358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing-market-news","tag-housing-market-tracker","tag-mortgage-tips"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Fed Needs Wool Socks; Why A Rate Hike Might Be Better for Housing - Redfin Real Estate News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Will the Fed raise rates? 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She\u2019s based in Washington, D.C., where she writes about housing and the economy. Before joining Redfin, Lorraine was at Bloomberg News reporting on politics, financial mayhem, housing and the economy. Her dream home is a top-floor loft with a pool, friendly neighbors and a terrace for throwing parties. Everyone's invited. Redfin is a full-service real estate brokerage that uses modern technology to make clients smarter and faster. For more information about working with a Redfin real estate agent to buy or sell a home, visit our \"Why Redfin?,\" page.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog"],"url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/lorraine-woellertredfin-com\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36358","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13355"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36358"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36358\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/42742"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36358"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36358"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36358"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=36358"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}