{"id":39935,"date":"2015-12-16T14:19:13","date_gmt":"2015-12-16T22:19:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redfindevelop.wpengine.com\/blog\/?p=39605"},"modified":"2020-10-06T17:08:23","modified_gmt":"2020-10-07T00:08:23","slug":"the-fed-rate-hike-wont-hurt-housing-heres-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/the-fed-rate-hike-wont-hurt-housing-heres-why\/","title":{"rendered":"The Fed Rate Hike Won\u2019t Hurt Housing. Here\u2019s Why."},"content":{"rendered":"

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates today, finally, and they’ll probably do it again soon.\u00a0Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her crew don\u2019t set mortgage rates, but their actions can make it more expensive to get a home loan. What they did today was raise short-term borrowing costs from near zero to a little above zero.<\/span>
\n\u201cRemember, we have very low rates and we made a very small move,\u201d Yellen said. \u201cIt\u2019s important not to overblow the significance.\u201d<\/span>
\nHere’s how to look at it: The move is a vote of confidence in the U.S. economy. In 2008, the Fed cut rates to near zero in an effort to boost housing, consumer spending and the rest of the economy. Now we\u2019re back on track. Unemployment is low, gas prices are low, debt is low and wages–finally–are picking up.<\/span>
\nYellen & Co. are taking it slow to avoid a big, <\/span>abrupt increase in rates<\/span><\/a> like the one that shook the market in 2013, when an epic U.S. budget showdown–the taper tantrum–pushed 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages from 3.9 percent to 4.5 percent in a single week.<\/span>
\nIt was the biggest weekly increase in more than three decades. Home sales slumped. That won\u2019t happen this time. Yellen\u2019s favorite word is \u201cgradual.\u201d Any uptick in mortgage rates will be gradual, too.<\/span><\/p>\n

What Does It All Mean?<\/span><\/h2>\n

For homeowners, not much. Most of us have fixed-rate mortgages and the Fed\u2019s move has no effect on those loans. <\/span>
\nFor buyers, loans eventually will get more expensive. It won\u2019t happen tomorrow or next week. But rates will go up. Let\u2019s see what happens when they do. <\/span>
\n<\/span>
\n<\/span>Last week, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage was<\/span> 3.95 percent<\/span><\/a>, near historic lows. Let\u2019s call it 4 percent just for kicks. At that rate, with 20 percent down on a $400,000 house, a buyer\u2019s monthly mortgage payment would be about $1,528.<\/span>
\nIf rates reach 4.25 percent, that mortgage payment would increase $46 a month, to about $1,574. At 4.5 percent, the mortgage hits $1,621.\u00a0<\/span>
\nWe think 4.5 percent is a long way off. Remember Yellen\u2019s favorite word (gradually). The Fed won’t hit the gas pedal until they’re sure the economy remains on track.<\/span>
\n\u201cYou know how you get to a certain safe speed on the highway? That\u2019s where they are,\u201d Redfin Chief Economist Nela Richardson said. \u201cThey\u2019ll be riding the brakes for every little bump in the economic data.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the Dark Side<\/span><\/h2>\n

First-time and lower-income buyers already struggling to afford a house will feel pain. For someone who can just barely qualify for a mortgage, a $50 or $100 increase in monthly costs could be enough to shut the door on homeownership for now.<\/span>
\nSo far, buyers aren’t worried. In a Redfin <\/span>survey<\/span><\/a> last month, only 6 percent of them said mortgage costs were a top worry.<\/span>
\nEventually higher mortgage rates should mean slower price increases, and a healthier economy will mean higher incomes. Demand for housing will lead to construction, which creates jobs and a grows the supply of homes. Today we learned that <\/span>construction rebounded<\/span><\/a> last month, with starts on single-family houses at its highest since January 2008.<\/span>
\n\u201cHousing has been recovering very slowly, but the demographics would point to significant upside,\u201d Yellen said. \u201cMy mainline forecast is for gradual recovery, but there is upside risk there.\u201d<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\n<\/span>Translation: Residential construction–and the jobs and spending that come with it–will pick up as first-time buyers, growing families and retiring baby-boomers start buying, moving up, or trading down.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\n<\/span>And that \u201cupside risk\u201d? It\u2019s Yellen\u2019s way of saying the housing market might do better than she thinks.<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\nFor now, remember this chart:<\/span>
\n\"Mortgage<\/a>
\nLorraine.Woellert@Redfin.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates today. As Yellen said, \u201cit\u2019s important not to overblow the significance.\u201d Translation: Chill.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13355,"featured_media":40249,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[32,74,19],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-39935","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing-market-news","tag-housing-market-tracker","tag-mortgage-tips","tag-politics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFed Rate Hike May Lead to a Gradual Uptick in Mortgage Rates<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Fed doesn't set mortgage rates, but their actions can make it more expensive to get a home loan. 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For more information about working with a Redfin real estate agent to buy or sell a home, visit our \"Why Redfin?,\" page.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog"],"url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/lorraine-woellertredfin-com\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39935","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13355"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39935"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39935\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40249"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39935"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39935"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39935"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=39935"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}