{"id":50283,"date":"2016-06-03T11:10:09","date_gmt":"2016-06-03T18:10:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redfindevelop.wpengine.com\/blog\/?p=50283"},"modified":"2020-10-06T17:08:16","modified_gmt":"2020-10-07T00:08:16","slug":"todays-jobs-report-disappointment-head-fakes-and-low-mortgage-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/todays-jobs-report-disappointment-head-fakes-and-low-mortgage-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"The Job Market: Head Fakes, Disappointment and Low Mortgage Rates"},"content":{"rendered":"

U.S. employers added 38,000 new workers in May, the weakest job growth in almost six years. There\u2019s no way to sugarcoat it — that\u2019s a really low number that caught economists off guard. \u201c<\/span>Pathetic<\/span><\/a>\u201d, \u201c<\/span>extremely disappointing<\/span><\/a>\u201d and \u201c<\/span>an unqualified dud<\/span><\/a>\u201d is how some of them described it.<\/span>
\nPayrolls shrank in construction, manufacturing and mining, industries where workers tend to be well paid, according to the Labor Department\u2019s <\/span>monthly jobs report<\/span><\/a>. There was a sharp drop in temporary work, too, a bad sign given that temps tend to be in demand when times are good.<\/span>
\nBut average wages were up 2.5 percent from a year earlier and o<\/span>ne bad number doesn\u2019t mean the sky is falling. We know from other data that consumers are still spending, layoffs are down and some employers are <\/span>having trouble<\/span><\/a> finding workers. H<\/span>ere are three takeaways for homebuyers and sellers.<\/span><\/p>\n

1. Interest rates aren’t going anywhere<\/h3>\n

Until this morning, markets were betting that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and her team would raise their benchmark short-term interest rate when they meet later this month. That\u2019s all changed. Overnight, Fed watchers pushed the chances of a June rate hike down to <\/span>less than 4 percent<\/span><\/a>. \u00a0<\/span>
\n\u201cThe May report is a disaster,\u201d said economist <\/span>Douglas Holtz-Eakin<\/span><\/a>, president of the American Action Forum. \u201cIt is weak enough to scare the Fed off of any rate increase, despite the fact that it would probably be smart to start moving rates toward normal.\u201d<\/span>
\nFor homebuyers, that means <\/span>mortgage rates will stay low<\/span><\/a>, too. When big-money investors hear bad news they tend to stick with safe bets, like Treasury bonds, which in turn keeps home loans cheap.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\"Mortgage
Source: Freddie Mac<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/figure>\n

“Low mortgage rates are secured, which will continue to keep housing strong through the summer,\u201d Redfin<\/a> chief economist Nela Richardson said. \u201cBut an economy that can’t create jobs can’t sustain housing no matter what the rate.\u201d Which brings us to our next point.<\/p>\n

2. There aren’t enough jobs<\/h3>\n

It’s obvious but bears repeating. Wage growth and job creation have been too weak for too long. Good jobs with decent pay, in particular, are hard to find. And without those good jobs, people can\u2019t afford to <\/span>buy houses<\/span><\/a> — or pay the high cost of rent.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\"jobs\"
Source: U.S. Department of Labor<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/figure>\n

3. Too many job hunters are giving up<\/h3>\n

The unemployment rate fell to 4.7 percent last month, its lowest since November 2007. That\u2019s good, right? <\/span>
\nNo. It fell because people gave up looking for jobs or dropped out of the workforce altogether.<\/span>
\nWorkforce dropouts are tracked by something called the labor-force participation rate, which has been sinking since the recession as more job seekers\u00a0give up the hunt. For a while, it look liked things had turned around, but now we\u2019re not so sure.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\"lfpr\"
Source: U.S. Department of Labor<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/figure>\n
<\/figure>\n
<\/figure>\n

\u201cThe rebound in participation from September through March increasingly looks like a head fake,\u201d Wells Fargo chief economist <\/span>John Silvia<\/span><\/a> wrote in a note to clients. \u201c<\/span>Today\u2019s report casts doubt on whether growth will remain strong enough to return the labor market back to its pre-recession state.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The upshot<\/h3>\n

\u201cTake a deep breath, breathe slowly and don\u2019t panic–yet.\u201d That\u2019s good advice from economist Joel Naroff<\/a>. Let’s see what happens.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Three takeaways for housing in the May jobs 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She\u2019s based in Washington, D.C., where she writes about housing and the economy. Before joining Redfin, Lorraine was at Bloomberg News reporting on politics, financial mayhem, housing and the economy. Her dream home is a top-floor loft with a pool, friendly neighbors and a terrace for throwing parties. Everyone's invited. Redfin is a full-service real estate brokerage that uses modern technology to make clients smarter and faster. For more information about working with a Redfin real estate agent to buy or sell a home, visit our \"Why Redfin?,\" page.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog"],"url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/lorraine-woellertredfin-com\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13355"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50283"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50283\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/48481"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50283"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=50283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}