{"id":512,"date":"2008-08-07T05:10:57","date_gmt":"2008-08-07T12:10:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redfindevelop.wpengine.com\/blog\/2008\/08\/more_real_estate_science_finding_the_sweetest_deals.html"},"modified":"2025-07-01T05:52:24","modified_gmt":"2025-07-01T12:52:24","slug":"more_real_estate_science_finding_the_sweetest_deals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/more_real_estate_science_finding_the_sweetest_deals\/","title":{"rendered":"More Real Estate Science! Finding the Sweetest Deals"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Redfin&#8217;s real estate scientists published <a href=\"http:\/\/docs.redfin.com\/static-images\/images\/misc\/negotiating-a-bargain.pdf\">a big, glorious new report<\/a> today on when homes will sell for a big discount and when they won&#8217;t, based on thousands of home sales across the country.<br \/>\nWe spent two months grinding through the data because every day, we see buyers with born-to-lose tattoos on their foreheads making lowball offers doomed to instant failure. And then sometimes <a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/about\/customers\">they win<\/a>.<br \/>\nNuts! Figuring out fast when a deal will fly and when it won&#8217;t is the key to making our margins work.<br \/>\nWe&#8217;ve tried to sort out <a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/2008\/05\/good_deals_tough_market_17_negotiating_techniques.html\" title=\"Redfin blog post on when you can negotiate and when you can't\">when a seller will give ground<\/a>, a posting that immediately set off a discussion at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/id\/141958\">Newsweek<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.usnews.com\/blogs\/the-home-front\/2008\/06\/04\/when-is-an-owner-willing-to-slash-the-price.html\">U.S. News &amp; World Report<\/a> and across the blogs. We&#8217;ve <a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/2008\/08\/the_science_of_real_estate_and_the_44-pound_cat.html\">talked about it on TV<\/a>.<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/tbn0.google.com\/images?q=tbn:M0TQRQauupReOM:http:\/\/l.yimg.com\/img.tv.yahoo.com\/tv\/us\/img\/site\/59\/04\/0000035904_20061117150713.jpg\" alt=\"Diane Sawyer, GMA\" align=\"right\" width=\"126\" height=\"150\" \/><br \/>\nMeanwhile, pricing discussions have been all the rage in our <a href=\"http:\/\/forums.redfin.com\/\">discussion forums<\/a>, with visitors asking <a href=\"http:\/\/forums.redfin.com\/rf\/board\/message?board.id=BayArea&amp;message.id=1516#M1516\" title=\"Negotiating new construction in Los Gatos\">how negotiable new construction is<\/a>, or even <a href=\"http:\/\/forums.redfin.com\/rf\/board\/message?board.id=BayArea&amp;message.id=1360&amp;jump=true#M1360\">what to offer on an individual property<\/a>.<br \/>\nEnter <a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/stingray\/do\/the-real-estate-scientist?direct-section=sell\">the real estate scientist<\/a>, who shreds MLS data, website logs, academic research and tax records to provide reliable answers to practical questions: what really works when <a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/about\/home-selling-tactics\" title=\"Redfin paper on marketing a listing\">marketing a listing<\/a>, what type of listings <a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/2008\/04\/boston_real_estate_not_clinically_depressed_just_a_split_personality.html\">sell in less than seven days<\/a>, whether high commissions lead to faster sales (<a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/2008\/03\/real_estate_commissions_typical_is_boring_but_when_selling_a_home_effective.html\">they don&#8217;t<\/a>).<br \/>\nToday&#8217;s report is about <a href=\"http:\/\/docs.redfin.com\/static-images\/images\/misc\/negotiating-a-bargain.pdf\">how to find the sweetest deals<\/a>. Redfin&#8217;s Rob McGarty and M<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/tbn0.google.com\/images?q=tbn:kBD3zf3ZLN232M:http:\/\/z.about.com\/d\/physics\/1\/0\/4\/0\/-\/-\/Mad_scientist_caricature.png\" alt=\"zany mad real estate scientist\" align=\"right\" width=\"110\" height=\"103\" \/>ose Andre crunched the numbers for all 9,053 sales of single-family homes in Fairfax (Virginia &#8216;burbs), King (Seattle area) and Los Angeles counties, between April 15 and June 15 this year, to look at homes that sold for a lot less than the asking price.<br \/>\n<strong>What surprised us right off the bat<\/strong> was how small the average discount was: after all the bad news about the housing market, it was still less than 2.5%. We were also surprised to see that a small fraction of listings got a huge discount, of more than 10% off list price.<br \/>\nThis means that 90% of the time, lowballers are wasting their time. But that 10% of the time, they&#8217;re saving $50,000. The trick is finding the listings ripe for a discount.<br \/>\nSo for each market we split the sales into two buckets: those that got the biggest discount (top ten percentile, an average of 11.4% off the final asking price), and all the rest (the 90th percentile and below, which got an average discount of 1.5%).<br \/>\nThen we compared the two groups to see what the sales involving a big discount had in common:<br \/>\n1.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 83% more likely to have been <strong>on the market for 90+ days<\/strong>.<br \/>\n2.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 73% more likely to be <strong>marketed as fixer-uppers<\/strong>.<br \/>\n3.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 20% less likely to <strong>feature a noteworthy remodel<\/strong>.<br \/>\n4.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 28% more likely to have <strong>already been price-reduced<\/strong> (though there were some confounding factors).<br \/>\n5.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 52% more likely to have been <strong>seller-owned for 20 years or more<\/strong>.<br \/>\n6.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9% more likely to have been <strong>seller-owned for less than five years<\/strong>, a slight but surprising correlation.<br \/>\n7.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Only 9% more likely to be <strong>a short sale or bank-owned<\/strong>. Most consumers expect this correlation to be much stronger.<br \/>\nThe portrait that emerged is\u00a0 of a bimodal market (much like the VC market right now) &#8212; a few homes in the most sought-after neighborhoods sell for well above asking price, most sell near the asking price and anything distressed or run-down (more homes are run-down now than before so the drop in prices is in part a reflection of the drop in the quality of the homes being sold) just keeps dropping and dropping.<br \/>\nThe bottom-line is that the condition of the home and its length of time on the market &#8212; surprise, surprise &#8212; are the main drivers for discounting &#8212; but how long the seller has owned the home is a big factor too. And foreclosures aren&#8217;t as negotiable as people think.<br \/>\nThe report has already gotten <a href=\"http:\/\/latimesblogs.latimes.com\/laland\/2008\/08\/which-houses-ar.html\">picked up by the LA Times<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.nwsource.com\/html\/realestate\/2008097106_homesales07.html\">now the Seattle Times too<\/a> (FRONT PAGE!!!).<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/docs.redfin.com\/static-images\/images\/misc\/negotiating-a-bargain.pdf\">Get the full paper (PDF)<\/a>, which breaks out all the data by county, and goes into the methodology too.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Redfin&#8217;s real estate scientists published a big, glorious new report today on when homes will sell for a big discount and when they won&#8217;t, based on thousands of home sales across the country. We spent two months grinding through the data because every day, we see buyers with born-to-lose tattoos on their foreheads making lowball [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13210,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-company-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>More Real Estate Science! 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We spent two months grinding through the data because every day, we see buyers with born-to-lose tattoos on their foreheads making lowball [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/more_real_estate_science_finding_the_sweetest_deals\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Redfin Real Estate News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/redfin\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2008-08-07T12:10:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-07-01T12:52:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/tbn0.google.com\/images?q=tbn:M0TQRQauupReOM:http:\/\/l.yimg.com\/img.tv.yahoo.com\/tv\/us\/img\/site\/59\/04\/0000035904_20061117150713.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Glenn Kelman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@redfin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@redfin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Glenn Kelman\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/more_real_estate_science_finding_the_sweetest_deals\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/more_real_estate_science_finding_the_sweetest_deals\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Glenn Kelman\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/e9aeac4a4bba86fdea8b35bc1eee3bf5\"},\"headline\":\"More Real Estate Science! 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Prior to joining Redfin, he was a co-founder of Plumtree Software, a Sequoia-backed, publicly traded company that created the enterprise portal software market. In his seven years at Plumtree, Glenn at different times led engineering, marketing, product management, and business development; he also was responsible for financing and general operations in Plumtree's early days. Prior to starting Plumtree, Glenn worked as one of the first employees at Stanford Technology Group, a Sequoia-backed start-up acquired by IBM. Glenn was raised in Seattle and graduated from the University of California, Berkeley.\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/author\\\/glenn-kelmanredfin-com\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"More Real Estate Science! 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