{"id":54458,"date":"2016-10-20T08:12:33","date_gmt":"2016-10-20T15:12:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redfindevelop.wpengine.com\/blog\/?p=54458"},"modified":"2020-10-06T17:08:12","modified_gmt":"2020-10-07T00:08:12","slug":"mortgage-rates-they-may-go-up-in-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rates-they-may-go-up-in-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Rates: They May Go Up in 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Mortgage rates were up this week, averaging 3.52 percent for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan, up from 3.47 percent last week. This is the first time in four months the rate has been above 3.50 percent. Last year at this time, rates were 3.70 percent, according to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/pmms\/\">Freddie Mac<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"media-54461\" class=\"align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Oct-20-Zoom.png\" alt=\"Oct 20 Zoom\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>A consensus is growing on what may happen in the near future with interest rates.<\/p>\n<h3>What\u2019s Expected in the Next Two Months?<\/h3>\n<p>People of all political stripes agree that the madness of this election season is worth waiting out.\u00a0 Janet Yellen and crew (a group also known as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomc.htm\">Federal Open Market Committee<\/a>, or FOMC) meet mere days before the election, on November 2, to discuss whether they\u2019ll raise the Federal funds rate.<br \/>\nHeavy <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/interest-rates\/countdown-to-fomc.html\">odds<\/a> are they won\u2019t. As of publication, there\u2019s a 92.8\u00a0percent\u00a0chance they\u2019ll stay the same.<br \/>\nInstead, talk is on a recent run of okay-but-not-spectacular reports, that aren\u2019t where economists hoped they\u2019d be, but that might be good enough for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December. For example, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\">most recent jobs<\/a> report was described as \u201cstubbornly average\u201d by Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson, while economist Diane Swonk described it as \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/10\/08\/business\/economy\/jobs-report-unemployment-wages.html\">solid, not spectacular<\/a>.\u201d<br \/>\nContinuing this theme, Tuesday\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.nr0.htm\">consumer price index<\/a> was \u201cin line with expectations,\u201d according to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2016\/10\/18\/consumer-price-index-up-03-in-september-in-line-with-expectations.html\">CNBC<\/a>, and revealed that year-over-year inflation was <a href=\"http:\/\/www.usinflationcalculator.com\/inflation\/current-inflation-rates\/\">1.5 percent<\/a>, the highest it\u2019s been since October 2014. That\u2019s inching closer to the two percent the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/faqs\/economy_14400.htm\">FOMC deems ideal<\/a>, and a number that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2016-10-18\/consumer-prices-in-u-s-rise-at-fastest-pace-in-five-months\">Bloomberg<\/a> notes is consistent with a raise in rates in the coming holiday season.<\/p>\n<h3>What About Housing?<\/h3>\n<p>In many areas across the country, it\u2019s a <a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/2016\/10\/september-home-sales-showed-steady-growth-up-3-2-percent-year-over-year.html\">seller\u2019s market<\/a>. There simply aren\u2019t many homes for sale, and it looks like we\u2019re not going to get the relief we need in the near future.<br \/>\nTuesday\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nahb.org\/en\/news-and-publications\/press-releases\/2016\/10\/builder-confidence-remains-solid-in-october.aspx\">Housing Market Index<\/a>, which measures home builder confidence in the market, continued the trend of lukewarm reports. Builder confidence was at its second-highest level this year \u2013 but down compared to the previous report.<br \/>\nSimilarly, the Census Bureau\u2019s release yesterday showed a decline on <a href=\"http:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrc\/pdf\/newresconst.pdf\">new construction<\/a> starts last month, though with a rise in builders requesting permits to build in the future. This <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/HOUST\">chart<\/a> from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, shows that builders are still not building at historical norms, though they <em>are<\/em> building much more than in the in the recent past. Again, a mixed bag.<\/p>\n<h3>What Does It Mean For Homebuyers?<\/h3>\n<p>Barring a surprise next week at the FOMC meeting, mortgage rates are unlikely to rise significantly in the short term. However, mortgage rates may start to creep up in 2017, especially if the Fed rate is raised on December 14, with experts saying there is a 73.6\u00a0percent\u00a0chance of that happening.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"media-54460\" class=\"align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Oct-20-Historical.png\" alt=\"Oct 20 Historical\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>But, even with a hike, mortgage rates would likely stay very low by historical standards, as the chart above indicates.<br \/>\nPerhaps the bigger question for homebuyers is not whether they can afford a mortgage in 2017, but whether the new year will have enough homes to satisfy demand.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mortgage rates were up this week, averaging 3.52 percent for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan, up from 3.47 percent last week. This is the first time in four months the rate has been above 3.50 percent. Last year at this time, rates were 3.70 percent, according to Freddie Mac. A consensus is growing on what may [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13053,"featured_media":49005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[32,74,19],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-54458","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing-market-news","tag-housing-market-tracker","tag-mortgage-tips","tag-politics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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