{"id":61340,"date":"2018-02-12T05:00:44","date_gmt":"2018-02-12T13:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redfindevelop.wpengine.com\/blog\/?p=61340"},"modified":"2020-10-06T17:08:05","modified_gmt":"2020-10-07T00:08:05","slug":"if-mortgage-rates-surpassed-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/if-mortgage-rates-surpassed-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Redfin Survey: Just 6% of Homebuyers Would Cancel Plans to Buy if Mortgage Rates Surpassed 5%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A late-2017 Redfin-commissioned survey of more than 4,000 people who bought or sold a home last year, attempted to do so, or planned to do so soon revealed the following key findings related to the housing market and the economy:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Only 6% of homebuyers said they would cancel their plans if mortgage rates surpassed 5%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The tax reform debate may have fueled anxiety as high taxes were the most common economic concern, cited by 38% of respondents.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">77% said they expect home prices in their area to rise in the next year. <\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This is the second in a series of three reports Redfin will issue based on the survey. The first, focused on politics and society, is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/2018\/02\/immigration-policies-caused-15percent-to-sell-or-not-buy.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">here<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Just 6% of homebuyers said they would cancel their plans to buy if mortgage rates surpassed 5%.<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Prospective buyers were unfazed by the prospect of rising mortgage rates. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">As mentioned in Redfin\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/2017\/12\/redfins-2018-housing-market-predictions.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">2018 predictions<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, mortgage rates are expected to rise in the coming year. After hovering below 4 percent at the end of 2017, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate surpassed 4 percent in January and has been steadily rising, reaching 4.32 percent at the time of this report\u2019s publication.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"media-61348\" class=\"align-none\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/mortgage-rates.png\" alt=\"mortgage rates\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Twenty-seven percent of respondents who plan to buy a home in the coming year said that a 5 percent mortgage rate would slow their plans to buy, down two points from responses to a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/2017\/06\/one-in-three-recent-homebuyers-made-an-offer-sight-unseen-up-from-one-in-five-a-year-ago.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">similar question in May<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Only 6 percent of respondents who plan to buy a home in the coming year said that a 5 percent mortgage interest rate would halt their plans to buy, a modest one-point increase from responses to a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/2017\/06\/one-in-three-recent-homebuyers-made-an-offer-sight-unseen-up-from-one-in-five-a-year-ago.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">similar question in May<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. Meanwhile, 21 percent said they would look in other areas or buy a smaller home, up three points from May. A quarter said such a hike would have no impact on their plans, consistent with our last survey. <\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong>The late-2017 tax reform debate may have fueled anxiety as high taxes were the most common economic concern, cited by 38% of respondents.<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">When the survey launched in early November, a Senate tax reform bill proposed a complete repeal of state and local tax deductions. At that time, there was a great deal of uncertainty about whether and how legislation would change, and how the possible changes would affect different individuals, particularly those who were in the process of buying or selling a home. Final changes to tax code for 2018 resulted in a $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\">When asked about concerns facing the U.S. economy, the most oft-cited response was high taxes, with 38 percent choosing it among their top three concerns. Affordable housing ranked second at 33 percent, followed by the income gap between the rich and poor, as cited by 28 percent of respondents.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"media-61350\" class=\"align-none\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/Economic-concerns.png\" alt=\"Economic concerns\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Not surprisingly, respondents in California, where residents pay among the highest state, local and property taxes in the country, were even more likely to name high taxes as a top concern, cited by 43 percent of San Franciscans, 45 percent of San Diegans and 42 percent of Sacramento-based respondents. Surprisingly, less than one-third of Los Angelenos cited high taxes as a top concern, though it was still the most common response, followed closely by affordable housing with 30 percent of respondents. <\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\">By contrast, affordable housing was the most frequently cited economic concern among respondents in other parts of the country including <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/16163\/WA\/Seattle\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Seattle<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> (45%) and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/30772\/OR\/Portland\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Portland<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> (44%), where the income gap between the rich and poor ranked second and high taxes ranked third. Affordable housing also ranked highest among <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/5155\/CO\/Denver\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Denver<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">-based respondents (46%), with high taxes following behind (30%).<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In 2018, we expect <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/video\/2017\/12\/27\/redfin-ceo-kelman-here-are-where-the-housing-markets-will-be-strongest-in-2018.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">tax reform<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> to accelerate the<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/2018\/02\/q4-migration-report.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> migration pattern<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> we saw last year, away from expensive coastal cities and toward more affordable inland communities. <\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong>77% of respondents said they expect home prices in their area to rise in the next year.<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The vast majority of respondents agreed that home prices will continue to rise in 2018. Only 6 percent of respondents said they expect any decline in prices, and only 1 percent said they expect prices to fall significantly. Most respondents (52%) said they expect prices to rise slightly, while another 25 percent said they expect a significant increase in prices and 17 percent said they expect no change at all.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"media-61346\" class=\"align-none\"><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"media-61351\" class=\"align-none\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/price-expectations-chart-1.png\" alt=\"price expectations chart\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cTight credit, lack of inventory and high demand are the major factors that tell us there\u2019s no housing bubble, despite rapid price increases,\u201d said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. \u201cThere are still many more buyers than the current housing supply can support, with no major relief in sight. Strict lending regulations make it much harder to buy a house you can\u2019t afford than during the housing boom a decade ago. Finally, still-low interest rates somewhat offset high prices for some buyers.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Methodology<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Redfin contracted SurveyGizmo to field a study between November 1st and December 6th, 2017 of 4,270 people <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">from the general population who indicated they had bought or sold a home in the past year, tried to buy or sell a home in the past year or plan to do so this year. The survey targeted 14 major metro areas (<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/30818\/TX\/Austin\/filter\/include=forsale+mlsfsbo+construction\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Austin<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/1073\/MD\/Baltimore\/filter\/include=forsale+mlsfsbo+construction\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Baltimore<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/1826\/MA\/Boston\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Boston<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/29470\/IL\/Chicago\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Chicago<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/30794\/TX\/Dallas\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Dallas-Fort Worth<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/5155\/CO\/Denver\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Denver<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/11203\/CA\/Los-Angeles\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Los Angeles<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/14240\/AZ\/Phoenix\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Phoenix<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">,<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/30772\/OR\/Portland\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Portland<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/16409\/CA\/Sacramento\/filter\/include=forsale+mlsfsbo+construction\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Sacramento<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">,<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/16904\/CA\/San-Diego\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">San Diego<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/17151\/CA\/San-Francisco\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">San Francisco<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/16163\/WA\/Seattle\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Seattle<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> and <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/12839\/DC\/Washington-DC\">Washington, D.C.<\/a>).<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Respondents consisted of those who successfully bought or sold in the past 12 months, tried to buy and\/or sell in the past 12 months or are planning to buy and\/or sell in the next 12 months. <\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Comparisons were made using results from similarly commissioned surveys conducted by SurveyGizmo in May 2017 and December 2016, and by SurveyMonkey in July 2016 and December 2015.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\">For more information about the survey and its findings, contact Redfin Journalist Services at \u00a0<\/span><a href=\"mailto:press@redfin.com\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">press@redfin.com<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A late-2017 Redfin-commissioned survey of more than 4,000 people revealed that only 6% of homebuyers said they would cancel their plans if mortgage rates surpassed 5%, among other key findings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13213,"featured_media":61353,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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Before Redfin, Greg was a data journalist in the market research industry, writing about cultural trends, climate change, and politics. 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