{"id":6222,"date":"2011-12-30T11:56:41","date_gmt":"2011-12-30T19:56:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redfindevelop.wpengine.com\/blog\/?p=6222"},"modified":"2020-10-06T14:36:59","modified_gmt":"2020-10-06T21:36:59","slug":"2011_prices_down_2012_hopes_up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/2011_prices_down_2012_hopes_up\/","title":{"rendered":"2011 Prices Down, 2012 Hopes Up"},"content":{"rendered":"

Happy new year Redfinnians!<\/p>\n

One more little gift under the tree for you! Just in time for the holidays, we released Redfin for iPad<\/a>!<\/p>\n

Like a magnificent medieval triptych, the app has a three-in-one interface — a map, a kaleidoscope of listing photos, a single house in all its glory — all in one screen. The app shot to the front page of Apple’s App Store from the day of its debut.<\/p>\n

One other sugar-plum feature for Redfin fans: we now offer a monthly home report that shows you pictures and prices for all the homes that sold in the four or five blocks around your place. To sign up, just search Redfin<\/a> for your home address, view the property’s details, then click the big sign-up link.<\/p>\n

Hope and Darkness<\/h2>\n

The holiday spirit seems to have affected more than Redfin’s elf-engineers. Prices fell again, and yet analysts and investors are daft with the holiday spirit, convinced that real estate<\/a> may finally be ready to recover. Why on the darkest day of the year, are we always so hopeful?<\/p>\n

One can only conclude that hopefulness is in our nature, and thank goodness it is! Let’s consider all the reasons this coming year will be better than the last.<\/p>\n

Prices Down 1.2%<\/h2>\n

But first, that lump of coal! The latest numbers show prices fell 1.2%:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Market<\/strong><\/td>\nMoM Change<\/strong><\/td>\nYoY Change<\/strong><\/td>\nDate of Max<\/strong><\/td>\nChange from Max<\/strong><\/td>\nPrices Last at
This Level<\/strong><\/td>\n		# of Months
of Decrease<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Phoenix Real Estate<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n0.3%<\/td>\n-5.1%<\/td>\nJun-06<\/td>\n-55.8%<\/td>\nFeb-00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Los Angeles Real Estate<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n-1.5%<\/td>\n-4.9%<\/td>\nSep-06<\/td>\n-39.6%<\/td>\nSep-03<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
San Diego Real Estate<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n-0.6%<\/td>\n-4.5%<\/td>\nNov-05<\/td>\n-38.9%<\/td>\nOct-02<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
San Francisco Real Estate<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n-0.7%<\/td>\n-4.7%<\/td>\nMay-06<\/td>\n-39.4%<\/td>\nJan-01<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Denver Real Estate<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n-0.2%<\/td>\n-0.9%<\/td>\nAug-06<\/td>\n-10.6%<\/td>\nJun-02<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Washington DC Real Estate<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n-0.3%<\/td>\n1.3%<\/td>\nMay-06<\/td>\n-25.4%<\/td>\nMay-04<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Atlanta Real Estate<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n-5.0%<\/td>\n-11.7%<\/td>\nJul-07<\/td>\n-33.2%<\/td>\nAug-98<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Chicago Real Estate<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n-1.8%<\/td>\n-4.8%<\/td>\nSep-06<\/td>\n-31.0%<\/td>\nAug-01<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Boston Real Estate<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n-1.1%<\/td>\n-1.1%<\/td>\nSep-05<\/td>\n-16.3%<\/td>\nMay-03<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Las Vegas Real Estate<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n-1.5%<\/td>\n-8.5%<\/td>\nAug-06<\/td>\n-60.7%<\/td>\nJul-97<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New York City Real Estate<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n-1.2%<\/td>\n-2.0%<\/td>\nJun-06<\/td>\n-22.1%<\/td>\nMar-04<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Portland Real Estate<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n-0.5%<\/td>\n-4.7%<\/td>\nJul-07<\/td>\n-27.4%<\/td>\nDec-04<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dallas Real Estate<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n-0.9%<\/td>\n-0.6%<\/td>\nJun-07<\/td>\n-8.7%<\/td>\nMay-04<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Seattle Real Estate<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n-1.0%<\/td>\n-6.2%<\/td>\nJul-07<\/td>\n-30.2%<\/td>\nAug-04<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20 City Index<\/strong><\/td>\n-1.2%<\/strong><\/td>\n-3.4%<\/strong><\/td>\nJul-06<\/strong><\/td>\n-32.1%<\/strong><\/td>\nMay-03<\/strong><\/td>\n2<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October 2011, Not Seasonally Adjusted<\/h2>\n

Three months ago, we said that price gains were just a summer fling<\/a>. Sure enough, once you adjust for seasonal swings, the index is now at a new post-bubble low<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But hey, it could be worse: last October, experts predicted a 5% – 10% drop but in fact prices over the past year dropped only 3% – 4%<\/a>. As we’ve been saying all along<\/a>, we’re at a rocky bottom with a downward trend. The West is stable:<\/p>\n

\"Case<\/p>\n

The East and Midwest, slightly less so, mostly because Atlanta fell off a cliff<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\"Case<\/p>\n

Sure, Call It a Comeback If You Like<\/h2>\n

Now our favorite housing swami, the studly Bill McBride at Calculated Risk, has said that most of the price declines are over<\/a>. All week, the most-emailed story in the Wall Street Journal has been about the hedge funds now buying up residential real estate<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Big money is starting to wager on housing. Hedge funds run by Caxton Associates LP, SAC Capital Advisors LP, Avenue Capital and Blackstone Group LP have been buying housing-related investments, betting on a rebound. And formerly bearish research firm Zelman & Associates now predicts a housing pickup, as does Goldman Sachs Group Inc.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

We aren’t surprised: all year, Wall Street has bombarded our site with web robots trying to download data in bulk. But the Street has been wrong before. As one analyst cautioned: “The smartest money in the world has been carried out on stretchers betting on a true recovery for housing.”<\/p>\n

You Want Good News? We’ve Got Plenty<\/h2>\n

What has convinced some investors that the housing market will be nice instead of naughty? All sorts of good news:<\/p>\n