{"id":64076,"date":"2018-10-24T04:45:38","date_gmt":"2018-10-24T11:45:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redfindevelop.wpengine.com\/blog\/?p=64076"},"modified":"2020-10-03T11:32:37","modified_gmt":"2020-10-03T18:32:37","slug":"q3-2018-migration-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/q3-2018-migration-report\/","title":{"rendered":"2018 Migration Trends accelerate as more people look to leave Denver, San Francisco, and Los Angeles"},"content":{"rendered":"

As mortgage rates climb, affordability in the most expensive markets has suffered, driving more people to affordable, low-tax inland job centers in states like Florida, Texas and Tennessee.<\/h2>\n

In the third quarter of 2018 people continued to move away from high-cost coastal markets like San Francisco<\/a>, New York<\/a>, Los Angeles<\/a> and Washington, D.C.<\/a>, in increasing numbers. Meanwhile, more affordable areas like Sacramento<\/a>, Atlanta<\/a> and Phoenix<\/a> continued to draw thousands of potential new residents. The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of more than 1 million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across 90 metro areas from July through September.<\/p>\n

Nationally, 25 percent of Redfin.com home searchers looked to move to another metro area in the third quarter, compared to 22 percent during the same period last year. Affordability continues to be a driving factor causing people to move away from the coasts.<\/p>\n

\u201cRising mortgage rates are exacerbating affordability issues that have been driving people out of expensive coastal metros for the past few years,\u201d said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. \u201cWith rates no longer near historic lows, buyers are increasingly cost-conscious, seeking more affordable homes in low-tax states<\/a> in the South and middle of the country.\u201d<\/p>\n

Moving Out \u2013 Metros with the Highest Net Outflow of Redfin Users<\/b><\/h3>\n

San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C. and Denver<\/a> posted the highest net outflows in the third quarter. Net outflow is defined as the number of people looking to leave the metro minus the number of people looking to move to the metro. A net outflow means there are more people looking to leave than people looking to move in, while a net inflow means more people are looking to move in than leave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow of Users and Their Top Destinations<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rank<\/th>\nMetro*<\/sup><\/th>\nNet Outflow\u2020<\/sup><\/th>\nNet Outflow Last Year<\/th>\nPortion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere<\/th>\nPortion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere Last Year<\/th>\nTop Destination<\/th>\nTop Out-of-State Destination<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nSan Francisco, CA<\/td>\n28,143<\/td>\n16,952<\/td>\n21.9%<\/td>\n17.9%<\/td>\nSacramento, CA<\/td>\nSeattle, WA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/td>\n23,214<\/td>\n16,647<\/td>\n34.4%<\/td>\n34.4%<\/td>\nBoston, MA<\/td>\nBoston, MA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/td>\n14,129<\/td>\n15,889<\/td>\n15.8%<\/td>\n15.4%<\/td>\nSan Diego, CA<\/td>\nLas Vegas, NV<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nWashington, DC<\/td>\n6,592<\/td>\n5,677<\/td>\n10.4%<\/td>\n10.6%<\/td>\nPhiladelphia, PA<\/td>\nPhiladelphia, PA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nDenver, CO<\/td>\n3,290<\/td>\n163<\/td>\n23.9%<\/td>\n17.7%<\/td>\nSeattle, WA<\/td>\nSeattle, WA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/td>\n3,050<\/td>\n2,125<\/td>\n9.1%<\/td>\n8.3%<\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nSpokane, WA<\/td>\n908<\/td>\nN\/A<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\nSeattle, WA<\/td>\nPortland, OR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nMilwaukee, WI<\/td>\n899<\/td>\n152<\/td>\n40.2%<\/td>\n36.1%<\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\nHouston, TX<\/td>\n578<\/td>\n328<\/td>\n25.5%<\/td>\n24.4%<\/td>\nAustin, TX<\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>\nOrlando, FL<\/td>\n492<\/td>\n-345<\/td>\n44.7%<\/td>\n35.0%<\/td>\nMiami, FL<\/td>\nAtlanta, GA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q3 2018
\n\u2020Among the one million users sampled for this analysis only<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tfoot>\n<\/table>\n

Denver: Outflow accelerates<\/h4>\n

After debuting on the list of top ten metro areas with a net outflow at number seven in the first quarter and moving up to number six in the second quarter, Denver moved up again in the third quarter to pass Chicago at number five. Of all Denverites using Redfin, 24 percent were searching for homes in another metro, up from 17 percent during the same time period a year earlier. Among the Denverites who were searching elsewhere, approximately 23 percent were looking at more affordable metros within the state: Colorado Springs and Fort Collins.<\/p>\n

A recent New York Times article<\/a> points out that Denver has suffered from \u201cyears of under-building,\u201d and quoted Colorado State University economist Phyllis Resnick as saying that the region\u2019s affordability imbalance may not correct \u201cjust through market forces, unless that\u2019s through people moving out.\u201d<\/p>\n

Of all San Francisco Bay Area residents using Redfin, 22 percent were searching for homes in another metro, up from 18 percent during the same time period a year earlier. Of New Yorkers, 34 percent looked to leave, about the same as last year. Of Los Angelenos, 16 percent looked to leave, compared to 15 percent last year.<\/p>\n

Moving In – Metros with the Highest Net Inflow of Redfin Users<\/b><\/h3>\n

The places attracting the most people are mostly the same regions that have been growing throughout the past year, including Sacramento, Atlanta, Phoenix and Portland<\/a>. The metro areas seeing the biggest inflows of new residents are the big cities where home prices are still relatively affordable and job markets are strong. Median prices in the metro areas seeing the largest net inflow average around $150,000 below prices in the metro areas with the largest net outflow.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe talk with a lot of people moving to Atlanta from areas experiencing more of a slowdown, and they seem to think Atlanta is too good to be true,\u201d said Atlanta Redfin agent Ashley Ward<\/a>. \u201cBenefits of Atlanta that keep drawing people here include top-notch public education, affordable housing, an appreciating market and more job opportunities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow of Users and Their Top Origins<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rank<\/th>\nMetro*<\/sup><\/th>\nNet Inflow\u2020<\/sup><\/th>\nNet Inflow LY<\/th>\nPortion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro<\/th>\nTop Origin<\/th>\nTop Out-of-State Origin<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nSacramento, CA<\/td>\n7,029<\/td>\n5,081<\/td>\n42.5%<\/td>\nSan Francisco, CA<\/td>\nLas Vegas, NV<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nAtlanta, GA<\/td>\n5,466<\/td>\n2,993<\/td>\n26.5%<\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nPhoenix, AZ<\/td>\n5,258<\/td>\n3,200<\/td>\n32.4%<\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nPortland, OR<\/td>\n3,904<\/td>\n983<\/td>\n18.7%<\/td>\nSan Francisco, CA<\/td>\nSan Francisco, CA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nSan Diego, CA<\/td>\n3,206<\/td>\n5,979<\/td>\n24.8%<\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nMiami, FL<\/td>\n3,019<\/td>\n1,324<\/td>\n28.0%<\/td>\nOrlando, FL<\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nAustin, TX<\/td>\n2,983<\/td>\n1,488<\/td>\n27.5%<\/td>\nSan Francisco, CA<\/td>\nSan Francisco, CA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nTampa, FL<\/td>\n2,811<\/td>\n1,517<\/td>\n51.0%<\/td>\nMiami, FL<\/td>\nWashington, DC<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\nDallas, TX<\/td>\n2,741<\/td>\n1,873<\/td>\n22.5%<\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>\nNashville, TN<\/td>\n2,603<\/td>\n1,653<\/td>\n32.8%<\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q3 2018
\n\u2020Negative values indicate a net outflow; among the one million users sampled for this analysis only<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tfoot>\n<\/table>\n

Find Your City<\/b><\/h3>\n

Below is an interactive tool to see where people are looking to move and where people are coming from for 90 U.S. metros. Find your city by clicking on the drop down menu:<\/p>\n