{"id":66274,"date":"2019-07-18T07:51:07","date_gmt":"2019-07-18T14:51:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redfindevelop.wpengine.com\/blog\/?p=66274"},"modified":"2020-10-06T19:22:25","modified_gmt":"2020-10-07T02:22:25","slug":"oregon-upzoning-bill-impact-housing-supply","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/oregon-upzoning-bill-impact-housing-supply\/","title":{"rendered":"Oregon\u2019s Proposed Ban on Single-Family Zoning Could Nearly Triple For-Sale Housing Supply in the Portland Metro"},"content":{"rendered":"

Redfin created a model to determine which properties in the Portland area are most likely to be redeveloped. If all the likely candidates were converted from single-family homes into multi-family dwellings, the number of homes for sale would increase from roughly 8,000 to more than 22,000.<\/span><\/i>
\nOregon is coming close to becoming the <\/span>first state to ban single-family-only zoning<\/span><\/a> in most areas, a move that could potentially add an entire summer\u2019s worth of new listings and nearly triple housing supply in the Portland metro, helping to combat home-price growth.\u00a0<\/span>
\nThe bill<\/span><\/a>, which is an attempt to curb price growth and provide more affordable housing options to Oregon residents, would require cities of more than 10,000 to allow duplexes and cities of more than 25,000 to allow triplexes, fourplexes, attached townhomes and \u201ccottage clusters\u201d in areas currently zoned for single-family homes only. The bill also applies to all cities within the Portland metro area, regardless of size. We’re going to look at the impact this could have on the Portland area, where home prices have shot up about 37 percent since the beginning of 2016.<\/span>
\nAlthough housing in the Portland metro is less expensive than it is in places like San Francisco and Seattle, the median sale price is well over the national median of $324,000. <\/span>One major reason for rising prices in Portland is years of low inventory: Although the number of homes for sale has been rising in the past year as the market has softened, the Portland metro hasn\u2019t had more than three months of housing supply since February 2015. Measured by dividing the total number of homes for sale by the number sold in a given period, months of supply measures how long it would take for housing supply to be bought up at the current pace of sales. Six months of supply is typically considered a balanced market, with any measure below that representing a seller\u2019s market, and values above six months representing a buyer\u2019s market. <\/span>Eliminating exclusively single-family zoning and allowing for more dense housing is an effective first step toward combating the housing affordability crisis that\u2019s taken hold in many parts of the country, especially high-priced coastal metros.\u00a0<\/span>
\n\u201cPortland has massive amounts of incoming residents, especially from Seattle and the Bay Area, and not enough new homes being built to keep up with demand. The homes that are being built are mostly unaffordable for the typical local,\u201d said local Redfin agent Matt Novak. \u201cPortland\u2019s housing market needs a workable way to increase housing density so new and existing residents can find affordable homes that aren\u2019t too far away from the city center.\u00a0 Adding duplexes, triplexes and townhomes, along with some backyard ADUs (accessory dwelling units), is one way to help keep our city\u2019s housing costs affordable for people who aren\u2019t able to afford spending more than a half-million dollars on a home.\u201d\u00a0<\/span>
\nTo examine the potential impact of the single-family zoning ban in the Portland metro, we determined which single-family properties in the area have the most potential for redevelopment, then calculated how many new housing units could be built out of those properties under the new regulations.\u00a0<\/span>
\n\"Portland
\nHypothetically, the bill could help create 14,000 new homes\u2014the equivalent of an entire spring\u2019s worth of new listings in the Portland metro, which would nearly triple the available housing supply in the area\u2014if all the new homes were built at the same time.<\/span>
\nHere\u2019s the math behind the 14,000 potential new homes:<\/span><\/p>\n