{"id":67162,"date":"2019-11-15T05:00:41","date_gmt":"2019-11-15T13:00:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redfindevelop.wpengine.com\/blog\/?p=67162"},"modified":"2020-10-06T17:07:57","modified_gmt":"2020-10-07T00:07:57","slug":"recession-housing-market-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/recession-housing-market-crash\/","title":{"rendered":"If There\u2019s a Recession, Will the Housing Market Crash?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/b71GFSVoK4s\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span data-offset-key=\"62lpa-0-0\">Amid global tension, trade wars and general economic uncertainty, many people are wondering if and when a recession will hit, and how it could affect the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/us-housing-market\"><span data-offset-key=\"62lpa-1-0\">U.S. housing market<\/span><\/a><span data-offset-key=\"62lpa-2-0\">. Redfin agent <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/real-estate-agents\/jessie-culbert-boucher\"><span data-offset-key=\"62lpa-3-0\">Jessie Culbert Boucher<\/span><\/a><span data-offset-key=\"62lpa-4-0\"> sat down with Redfin chief economist <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/author\/darylfairweather\/\"><span data-offset-key=\"62lpa-5-0\">Daryl Fairweather<\/span><\/a><span data-offset-key=\"62lpa-6-0\"> to ask questions about what\u2019s going on in the U.S. economy if there\u2019s going to be a recession, how it could impact the real estate market and how to prepare for one.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What\u2019s happening in the economy right now that\u2019s fueling talk of a recession?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Despite high employment numbers and strong consumer spending, the economy is relatively fragile right now. This fragility is due to global tension, trade wars, and a contracting manufacturing sector.<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Will there be a recession in 2020?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>There\u2019s only about a 1 in 4 chance of a recession in the next 12 months. This number is based on economic indicators such as consumer spending, manufacturing, exports, imports and government spending. While the overall economic picture is about 1 in 4, if you just look at the financial sector, the odds are about 1 in 2. But it\u2019s important to examine all indicators because they all paint a bigger and more accurate economic picture.<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">How did housing impact the 2008 recession, and what were the ripple effects on homeowners and home prices?\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The 2008 recession was unique because it started in the housing market with the foreclosure crisis. There was a housing bubble where home prices peaked around 2006, only to come crashing down by about 17%. Many people found themselves underwater on mortgages, entering foreclosure or selling at a loss. Not only did that bring the housing market down even further, but it also rippled into the financial sector and spread rapidly to create the 2008 Great Recession.<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Will housing prices drop in a recession?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-offset-key=\"ata8h-0-0\">If home prices drop, it won\u2019t be significant. The housing market is usually relatively stable during a recession, and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/how-recession-proof-is-your-home\/\"><span data-offset-key=\"ata8h-1-0\">home prices <\/span><\/a><span data-offset-key=\"ata8h-2-0\">only fall but 4-6%\u2014if at all. For example, in the 2001 tech bubble, sales demand stayed strong and home prices actually kept going up. Even though the last recession is fresh in our minds, that isn\u2019t a standard for how all recessions look.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What are economic indicators that could predict a recession?\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-offset-key=\"9pblr-0-0\">Most risks to the U.S. economy come from outside the U.S. economy, such as trade wars or global weakness, which could spill over to the U.S. That could cause a recession, because if we\u2019re not exporting enough, people may lose their jobs. Even just the threat of job loss is enough to keep consumers from spending, which could also cause a recession. But the next recession won\u2019t start in the<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/us-housing-market\"><span data-offset-key=\"9pblr-1-0\"> housing market<\/span><\/a><span data-offset-key=\"9pblr-2-0\">. Yes, home prices are high, but that\u2019s due to lack of inventory and fundamental economic reasons\u2014not a speculation real estate bubble.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What advice would you give to homebuyers and homesellers right now?\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>If you are a buyer, don\u2019t try to time your decision based on recession speculation. I would look more at your own personal financial situation. Ask yourself if you\u2019d still be able to afford the home if you lost your job. How long would you be able to maintain those mortgage payments? If you\u2019re considering selling a home, I would ask yourself those same questions. If you think your budget is going to be significantly stretched if you hold on to the home, now may be a good time to sell.<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">How much money should you reserve in case a recession happens?\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>My general advice, which applies to every homeowner or buyer, is to have a financial cushion in place. Six months of income set aside is a safe amount, because that\u2019s a reasonable length of time to find a new job if you lose it. This emergency fund could save you from missing mortgage payments or selling at a loss.<br \/>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chief economist, Daryl Fairweather, provides answers to frequently asked questions about how a recession could impact housing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13160,"featured_media":67166,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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Fairweather","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Daryl_Fairweather-150x150.jpg2241363a74da1c56f0d11a998486cacb","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Daryl_Fairweather-150x150.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Daryl_Fairweather-150x150.jpg","caption":"Daryl Fairweather"},"description":"Daryl Fairweather is the chief economist of Redfin. Her insights have been featured on 60 Minutes, CBS Evening News, as well as in the New York Times and Washington Post. Prior to joining Redfin she was a senior economist at Amazon working on problems related to employee engagement and managing a team of analysts. During the housing crisis, Daryl worked as a researcher at the Boston Fed studying why homeowners entered foreclosure. Daryl received her Bachelor's of Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and received her Ph.D. and Master's degrees in economics at the University of Chicago where she specialized in behavioral economics. Follow Daryl on Twitter @FairweatherPhD.","sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/fairweatherphd"],"url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/darylfairweather\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67162","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13160"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67162"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67162\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67166"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67162"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67162"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67162"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=67162"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}