{"id":67239,"date":"2019-11-25T05:00:38","date_gmt":"2019-11-25T13:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redfindevelop.wpengine.com\/blog\/?p=67239"},"modified":"2020-10-06T14:36:58","modified_gmt":"2020-10-06T21:36:58","slug":"2020-housing-market-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/2020-housing-market-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Redfin\u2019s 2020 Housing Market Predictions: More buyers + fewer homes = more bidding wars"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-67240\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Housing-Predictions_1200x800.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2470\" height=\"1305\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Housing-Predictions_1200x800.png 2470w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Housing-Predictions_1200x800-300x159.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Housing-Predictions_1200x800-1024x541.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Housing-Predictions_1200x800-768x406.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Housing-Predictions_1200x800-1536x812.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Housing-Predictions_1200x800-2048x1082.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2470px) 100vw, 2470px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We predict the <a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/us-housing-market\">housing market<\/a> will be more competitive in 2020 as the cooldown that began in the second half of 2018 comes to an end. Charleston and Charlotte will lead the nation in home-price gains, thanks to homebuyers moving in from expensive cities. Hispanic Americans will experience the biggest gains in home equity wealth. Climate change will become a much bigger factor for homebuyers and sellers. Read on for Redfin\u2019s six housing market predictions for 2020.<\/span><br \/>\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/h1xPGR_Esag\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Prediction #1: Bidding wars will rebound thanks to low mortgage rates and a lack of homes for sale<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Low mortgage rates will continue to strengthen homebuying demand, but due to a lack of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/new-construction-q3-2019\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">new homes for sale<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/homeowners-staying-in-their-homes-longer\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">homeowners staying put longer<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, there will be fewer homes on the market in 2020 than in the past five years. More demand and less supply mean bidding wars will rebound in the first quarter. We expect about one in four offers to face bidding wars in 2020 compared to only <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/october-2019-real-estate-bidding-wars\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">one in 10 in 2019<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. This increase in competition will push year-over-year price growth up to 6% in the first half of the year, considerably stronger than the 2% growth seen in the first half of 2019. Supply and demand will become more balanced later in the year as more listings of new and existing homes hit the market, allowing price growth to moderate to 3%.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Prediction #2: 30-year fixed mortgage rates will stabilize at 3.8%<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Throughout 2020, 30-year fixed mortgage rates will remain low, hovering around 3.8%. Faced with slowing economic growth, the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low. Although the housing market is strong, weakness in other sectors, like manufacturing, is pulling down on the economy. Because investors are already bracing for the possibility of a recession, we don\u2019t expect mortgage rates to fall much lower than 3.5% in 2020 even if the economy weakens. And even if the economy strengthens, we expect mortgage rates to stay below 4.1%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Prediction #3: For the first time, Hispanic Americans will gain more wealth from home equity than white Americans<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the next decade, Hispanic Americans will, for the first time, gain more home equity than white Americans. That\u2019s because the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/wave-of-hispanic-buyers-boosts-u-s-housing-market-11563183000\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">majority of new homeowners are Hispanic<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/black-americans-homeownership-rate\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">home values in Hispanic neighborhoods are increasing faster<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than in white neighborhoods. There are more Hispanic homeowners in Texas than in any other state and Texas cities are likely to experience strong gains in home values over the next decade as people move here from more expensive places like <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/17151\/CA\/San-Francisco\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">San Francisco<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/11203\/CA\/Los-Angeles\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Los Angeles<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hispanic families will likely benefit from home-equity gains for generations to come. Hispanic Americans could tap their home equity to finance their children\u2019s education or to start businesses. Over time, this will improve economic equality for Hispanic Americans.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Prediction #4: Climate change will become a bigger financial factor for homebuyers and sellers<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In 2020, homebuyers and sellers will take the consequences of climate change into account when deciding to buy. The financial costs of climate change are already becoming more tangible as fire and flood insurance premiums rise. \u201cMore people are becoming hyper-sensitive to flood insurance and its costs,\u201d said <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/8903\/TX\/Houston\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Houston<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Redfin agent <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/tools\/agents\/4902\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Irma Jalifi<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. \u201cThey\u2019re thinking about how the weather will change over the next decade and whether there will be more historic floods like we\u2019ve experienced recently. I had a buyer back out of a deal because he found out the property required flood insurance.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Over the next decade, higher insurance premiums in high-risk areas will make housing even less affordable to more people. And in areas with the highest risk, insurers may stop providing insurance altogether, which means it will be nearly impossible to secure a mortgage in those areas.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Prediction #5: Charleston and Charlotte will lead the nation in home price growth<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Affordable Southeast cities like <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/3478\/SC\/Charleston\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Charleston<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/city\/3105\/NC\/Charlotte\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Charlotte<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> are attracting an increasing number of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\/q3-2019-housing-migration-report\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">migrants from expensive cities<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which will drive up home price growth in these areas. Charleston saw a 104% annual increase in the number of Redfin users looking to move in, relative to the number of users looking to move, out in the third quarter of 2019, and Charlotte saw a 44% increase. Migrants are attracted to the growing economies of Charleston and Charlotte\u2014<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wcnc.com\/article\/money\/economy\/charlotte-microsoft-430-newjobs\/275-30d6c4e0-7508-4384-8565-74e9c67a0d17\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Microsoft is spending $23 million to expand its Charlotte campus<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and in Charleston, the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/charlestonbusiness.com\/news\/automotive\/76429\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">new Volvo plant is adding thousands of jobs<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cA lot of migrants from up north or out west move to Charleston because it is such a lovely place\u2014out of towners fall in love with our Cypress gardens and world-class beaches,\u201d said Redfin agent<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/real-estate-agents\/jacie-paulson\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and team manager <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jacie Paulson<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. \u201cThe fact that we have an international airport means that companies are more willing to allow their remote employees to live here because it is easy to travel back and forth to headquarters. We also have a strong local economy with jobs at Boeing, Volvo, and in the military.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Prediction #6: More city streets will become car-free<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In 2020, we will see more cities favor green modes of transit and actively discourage driving. Some cities already have plans in the works\u2014<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.citylab.com\/transportation\/2019\/10\/car-free-san-francisco-market-street-design-bikes-streetcar\/599983\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">San Francisco&#8217;s Market Street<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> will transform into a car-free corridor in 2020, and New York City drivers will have to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/04\/24\/nyregion\/what-is-congestion-pricing.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">pay to drive<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> into the heart of the city beginning in 2021. In cities that become less car-friendly, those that frequently spend time in the city-center will place more value on a commute that doesn\u2019t require a car and move to either the walkable city center or close to public transit. Meanwhile, some people will choose to avoid the city-center altogether and put a higher value on homes in the suburbs where they can work, play and live.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This article reflects the beliefs of our economics team about the overall housing market. It\u2019s not intended as historical information or future guidance to the investment community and shouldn\u2019t be relied on for those purposes.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To find out which of our predictions in this article come true, and which predictions turn out to be incorrect, follow the Redfin Blog for <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/redfin.com\/blog\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">real-time research on the housing market<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We predict the housing market will be more competitive in 2020 as the cooldown that began in the second half of 2018 comes to an end. Charleston and Charlotte will lead the nation in home-price gains, thanks to homebuyers moving in from expensive cities. Hispanic Americans will experience the biggest gains in home equity wealth. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13160,"featured_media":67306,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[33],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-67239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-predictions","tag-housing-market-predictions"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Redfin\u2019s 2020 Housing Market Predictions<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What is the real estate forecast for 2020? 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Read Redfin\u2019s 2020 housing market predictions.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/2020-housing-market-predictions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Redfin Real Estate News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/redfin\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-11-25T13:00:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-10-06T21:36:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/2020-Housing-Market-Predictions.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Daryl Fairweather\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@fairweatherphd\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@redfin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Daryl Fairweather\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/2020-housing-market-predictions\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/2020-housing-market-predictions\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Daryl Fairweather\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a348dd7069898071dd9ff040a4197271\"},\"headline\":\"Redfin\u2019s 2020 Housing Market Predictions: More buyers + fewer homes = more bidding wars\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-11-25T13:00:38+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-10-06T21:36:58+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/2020-housing-market-predictions\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1009,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/2020-housing-market-predictions\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/2020-Housing-Market-Predictions.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Housing Market Predictions\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Predictions\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"copyrightYear\":\"2019\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/2020-housing-market-predictions\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/2020-housing-market-predictions\\\/\",\"name\":\"Redfin\u2019s 2020 Housing Market Predictions\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/2020-housing-market-predictions\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/2020-housing-market-predictions\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/2020-Housing-Market-Predictions.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-11-25T13:00:38+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-10-06T21:36:58+00:00\",\"description\":\"What is the real estate forecast for 2020? 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Her insights have been featured on 60 Minutes, CBS Evening News, as well as in the New York Times and Washington Post. Prior to joining Redfin she was a senior economist at Amazon working on problems related to employee engagement and managing a team of analysts. During the housing crisis, Daryl worked as a researcher at the Boston Fed studying why homeowners entered foreclosure. Daryl received her Bachelor's of Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and received her Ph.D. and Master's degrees in economics at the University of Chicago where she specialized in behavioral economics. Follow Daryl on Twitter @FairweatherPhD.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/fairweatherphd\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.redfin.com/news\\\/author\\\/darylfairweather\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Redfin\u2019s 2020 Housing Market Predictions","description":"What is the real estate forecast for 2020? 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