{"id":70139,"date":"2020-09-03T06:00:49","date_gmt":"2020-09-03T13:00:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/?p=70139"},"modified":"2020-10-07T17:30:34","modified_gmt":"2020-10-08T00:30:34","slug":"coronavirus-real-estate-housing-shortage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/coronavirus-real-estate-housing-shortage\/","title":{"rendered":"America\u2019s Housing Shortage Is Intensifying During the Pandemic\u2014Especially in Relatively Affordable Places Like San Antonio and Baltimore"},"content":{"rendered":"

Meanwhile, San Francisco has experienced a flood of homes for sale as Americans flee dense, expensive cities.<\/h2>\n

America\u2019s housing shortage was intense before the coronavirus hit, with the number of homes for sale slumping 7% year over year in February. Now it\u2019s even more acute: Supply dropped for the twelfth-straight month in July, plummeting nearly 20% to just 1.9 million homes\u2014the lowest level of any July on record. Some of the nation\u2019s most affordable areas are driving the deficit.<\/p>\n

In San Antonio, TX<\/a>, the number of homes for sale was down 21% year over year in July after having been up 1% in February. That 22 percentage point decline represents the largest drop among the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas, followed by Baltimore<\/a>\u2019s 21 percentage point decrease. Frederick, MD<\/a>, Newark, NJ<\/a> and Chicago<\/a> tied for third place, all falling 20 percentage points.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A handful of dense, expensive places bucked the national trend. In the San Francisco<\/a> metro area, the number of homes for sale skyrocketed 51% year over year in July after having dropped 2% in February. The 53 percentage point increase was the biggest gain of any other major metro. New York<\/a> saw the second largest increase, rising 13 percentage points, followed by San Jose<\/a>, up 7 percentage points.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Of the top 50 metros, 40 have seen supply growth rates decline since February. The number of homes for sale across the country has dwindled as record-low mortgage rates have sparked a deluge of homebuyer demand that hasn\u2019t been matched by an equal increase in the number of people putting their houses on the market. At the same time, the pandemic has exacerbated the trend of Americans moving from expensive, coastal cities to affordable, inland places\u2014intensifying the supply deficit in the latter areas. These factors have deepened an already-acute housing shortage set off by a homebuilding slowdown after the 2008 financial crisis and the increasing tendency of homeowners to hold onto their houses for longer<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Where Supply Is Shrinking<\/h3>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a perfect storm in the housing market right now,\u201d said Jason Allen<\/a>, Redfin\u2019s market manager in Baltimore<\/a>. \u201cPeople are more comfortable staying in their homes; they\u2019re investing in pools, offices and better backyards instead of moving. But at the same time, there are suddenly a lot more people who want those amenities, so we\u2019re seeing this huge wave of buyers. We’re meeting far more clients who want to buy a home than sell a home.\u201d<\/p>\n

In San Antonio<\/a>, many homeowners have been nervous to put their houses up for sale, according to local Redfin agent Shea Voss<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019ve been preparing for the sky to fall on the housing market because that\u2019s what happened during the last recession,\u201d she said. \u201cAs a result, it\u2019s been extremely hard for my buyers to find what they\u2019re looking for, and when they do, there might be 18 other buyers in line. You\u2019ve got to pull out every trick in the book<\/a> to compete in a bidding war, and oftentimes, you\u2019ll still lose because there are so many buyers and so few homes for sale.\u201d<\/p>\n

The fierce competition<\/a> among buyers has driven up national home prices, which climbed 8% year over year to a record high of about $323,000 in July. Redfin agent Dan Borowy<\/a> said he\u2019s seeing this play out in the Baltimore<\/a> area.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cBuyers are willing to pay more for a house than I\u2019ve ever seen\u2014I\u2019m talking $30,000 to $50,000 over the listing price, compared with maybe $5,000 or $10,000 over before the pandemic,\u201d he said. \u201cThey\u2019re desperate because homes are flying off the market so quickly. I\u2019m selling all of the homes I\u2019m listing within three days.\u201d<\/p>\n

The bidding wars caused by Baltimore<\/a>\u2019s housing deficit are pushing out many first-time and lower-income homebuyers, Borowy added. When making an offer on a home, buyers have the option to ask sellers for help covering a portion of their closing costs, down payments or other fees. But with so many bidders to choose from, today\u2019s sellers are going with those who don\u2019t need this so-called seller assistance<\/a>, Borowy said. Oftentimes, they\u2019re also choosing buyers who agree to pay the full listing price of a home even if the appraisal comes in low, which has been happening frequently during the pandemic.<\/p>\n

\u201cBaltimore<\/a> is one of the few major cities in the country where you can still find a home for around $250,000, but those homes are going to disappear in the near future if this level of competition continues,\u201d added Allen.<\/p>\n

Where Supply Is Growing<\/h3>\n

San Francisco<\/a> has seen the number of homes for sale surge since the pandemic became widespread in the U.S. With so many technology companies allowing employees to work remotely, Bay Area residents are leaving for places that offer more space and affordability, according to local Redfin agent Carlos Barrientos<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith offices and entertainment shut down, there\u2019s no incentive to stay in San Francisco<\/a>,\u201d he said. \u201cWe have a very high concentration of tech jobs, which means we also have a very high concentration of people who can leave the city for parts of the state with bigger backyards and better weather. All they have to do is set up their Zoom room and get to work.\u201d<\/p>\n

In July, 23.9%<\/a> of Redfin.com users searching from San Francisco<\/a> were looking for homes in a different metro area, up from 21.1% a year earlier. Sacramento<\/a> and Seattle<\/a> were among the top destinations of interest. An even higher share\u201434.2%\u2014were looking to leave New York City<\/a>, though that\u2019s down from 39.8% a year prior.<\/p>\n

As people depart the San Francisco<\/a> metro area, new listings there have surged, rising 77% year over year in July. That\u2019s more than any other major metro and far outpaces the 16.5% increase in pending sales\u2014a gauge of buyer demand. This imbalance has been rough on sellers, according to Redfin agent Gabrielle Bunker<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cI had one client who spent $50,000 renovating their home in Mission Dolores\u2014a very desirable, walkable neighborhood. They put in new floors, fancy kitchen appliances and a high-power electric-car charger,\u201d Bunker said. \u201cThey got zero offers, and now they\u2019re thinking about moving back in. Buyers here have so many choices right now.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bunker said that a rise in construction<\/a> activity is also part of the reason there\u2019s so much excess supply in San Francisco<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Looking Ahead<\/h3>\n

Building more homes across the country is one solution to the nationwide housing shortage, according to Redfin lead economist Taylor Marr<\/a>. It\u2019s already starting to happen. Residential construction projects in the U.S. surged 23.4%<\/a> year over year in July, and building permits rebounded to their historical average, jumping 9.4%<\/a> to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 million.<\/p>\n

\u201cBuilders got burned big time during the housing bubble, but they\u2019re finally starting to climb out of the hole as homebuyer demand rebounds, which is a good sign for U.S. housing supply,\u201d Marr said. \u201cWhat remains to be seen is whether lumber producers, which are facing slowdowns due to the pandemic, will be able to keep up.\u201d<\/p>\n

Summary of Housing Supply by Metro Area, July vs. February:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
Metro Area<\/b><\/th>Change in YoY Active Listings Growth, February to July<\/b><\/th>February Active Listings Growth, YoY<\/b><\/th>July Active Listings Growth, YoY<\/b><\/th>July Median Sale Price\u00a0<\/b><\/th>July Median Sale Price, YoY<\/b><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
San Antonio, TX<\/a><\/td>-22 pts<\/td>1%<\/td>-21%<\/td> $260,000<\/td>9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Baltimore, MD<\/a><\/td>-21 pts<\/td>-5%<\/td>-26%<\/td> $320,000<\/td>7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Frederick, MD<\/a><\/td>-20 pts<\/td>2%<\/td>-18%<\/td> $448,900<\/td>7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Newark, NJ<\/a><\/td>-20 pts<\/td>2%<\/td>-17%<\/td> $412,500<\/td>8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Chicago, IL<\/a><\/td>-20 pts<\/td>2%<\/td>-17%<\/td> $281,000<\/td>7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Houston, TX<\/a><\/td>-17 pts<\/td>1%<\/td>-17%<\/td> $271,000<\/td>8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dallas, TX<\/a><\/td>-17 pts<\/td>-2%<\/td>-19%<\/td> $322,500<\/td>8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Minneapolis, MN<\/a><\/td>-17 pts<\/td>4%<\/td>-13%<\/td> $312,650<\/td>10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Detroit, MI<\/a><\/td>-16 pts<\/td>-1%<\/td>-17%<\/td> $165,000<\/td>14%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fort Worth, TX<\/a><\/td>-16 pts<\/td>1%<\/td>-15%<\/td> $265,000<\/td>6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cleveland, OH<\/a><\/td>-15 pts<\/td>-13%<\/td>-28%<\/td> $175,000<\/td>3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Memphis, TN<\/a><\/td>-15 pts<\/td>-9%<\/td>-24%<\/td> $220,000<\/td>5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Indianapolis, IN<\/a><\/td>-15 pts<\/td>-6%<\/td>-21%<\/td> $225,000<\/td>13%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Providence, RI<\/a><\/td>-15 pts<\/td>-10%<\/td>-24%<\/td> $325,000<\/td>10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New Brunswick, NJ<\/a><\/td>-14 pts<\/td>-9%<\/td>-23%<\/td> $361,500<\/td>8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Warren, MI<\/a><\/td>-14 pts<\/td>-4%<\/td>-18%<\/td> $247,500<\/td>10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Riverside, CA<\/a><\/td>-14 pts<\/td>-14%<\/td>-28%<\/td> $420,000<\/td>11%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Columbus, OH<\/a><\/td>-14 pts<\/td>0%<\/td>-14%<\/td> $254,200<\/td>11%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Portland, OR<\/a><\/td>-13 pts<\/td>-8%<\/td>-21%<\/td> $439,000<\/td>8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sacramento, CA<\/a><\/td>-13 pts<\/td>-10%<\/td>-22%<\/td> $462,000<\/td>10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Atlanta, GA<\/a><\/td>-13 pts<\/td>-5%<\/td>-17%<\/td> $277,000<\/td>9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Virginia Beach, VA<\/a><\/td>-13 pts<\/td>-13%<\/td>-25%<\/td> $273,000<\/td>9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oklahoma City, OK<\/a><\/td>-11 pts<\/td>-5%<\/td>-16%<\/td> $207,000<\/td>11%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nashville, TN<\/a><\/td>-11 pts<\/td>-5%<\/td>-16%<\/td> $327,828<\/td>9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Boston, MA<\/a><\/td>-11 pts<\/td>-1%<\/td>-11%<\/td> $555,000<\/td>5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Washington, D.C.<\/a><\/td>-9 pts<\/td>-4%<\/td>-13%<\/td> $469,000<\/td>11%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nassau County, NY<\/a><\/td>-9 pts<\/td>-6%<\/td>-15%<\/td> $481,000<\/td>1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jacksonville, FL<\/a><\/td>-8 pts<\/td>-9%<\/td>-17%<\/td> $264,250<\/td>8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Austin, TX<\/a><\/td>-8 pts<\/td>-9%<\/td>-17%<\/td> $355,000<\/td>11%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tampa, FL<\/a><\/td>-8 pts<\/td>-15%<\/td>-22%<\/td> $265,000<\/td>11%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Montgomery County, PA<\/a><\/td>-7 pts<\/td>-10%<\/td>-17%<\/td> $360,000<\/td>8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Milwaukee, WI<\/a><\/td>-7 pts<\/td>1%<\/td>-6%<\/td> $259,000<\/td>14%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Denver, CO<\/a><\/td>-4 pts<\/td>-10%<\/td>-14%<\/td> $455,000<\/td>7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Philadelphia, PA<\/a><\/td>-4 pts<\/td>-3%<\/td>-6%<\/td> $248,000<\/td>10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Las Vegas, NV<\/a><\/td>-3 pts<\/td>-17%<\/td>-21%<\/td> $309,500<\/td>9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Seattle, WA<\/a><\/td>-3 pts<\/td>-13%<\/td>-16%<\/td> $622,716<\/td>11%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Anaheim, CA<\/a><\/td>-2 pts<\/td>-17%<\/td>-20%<\/td> $763,000<\/td>5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pittsburgh, PA<\/a><\/td>-2 pts<\/td>-1%<\/td>-3%<\/td> $200,000<\/td>9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
San Diego, CA<\/a><\/td>-2 pts<\/td>-20%<\/td>-21%<\/td> $642,000<\/td>10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cincinnati, OH<\/a><\/td>-1 pts<\/td>-14%<\/td>-15%<\/td> $222,000<\/td>13%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fort Lauderdale, FL<\/a><\/td>0 pts<\/td>-9%<\/td>-9%<\/td> $318,500<\/td>14%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Miami, FL<\/a><\/td>1 pts<\/td>-9%<\/td>-8%<\/td> $340,000<\/td>8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Los Angeles, CA<\/a><\/td>2 pts<\/td>-17%<\/td>-16%<\/td> $700,000<\/td>8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Orlando, FL<\/a><\/td>2 pts<\/td>-12%<\/td>-10%<\/td> $280,000<\/td>9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oakland, CA<\/a><\/td>4 pts<\/td>-17%<\/td>-13%<\/td> $815,000<\/td>9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
West Palm Beach, FL<\/a><\/td>5 pts<\/td>-10%<\/td>-5%<\/td> $325,000<\/td>14%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Phoenix, AZ<\/a><\/td>7 pts<\/td>-22%<\/td>-16%<\/td> $318,975<\/td>14%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
San Jose, CA<\/a><\/td>7 pts<\/td>-20%<\/td>-13%<\/td> $1,195,000<\/td>6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New York, NY<\/a><\/td>13 pts<\/td>-15%<\/td>-2%<\/td> $532,500<\/td>1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
San Francisco, CA<\/a><\/td>53 pts<\/td>-2%<\/td>51%<\/td> $1,475,000<\/td>4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
National<\/b><\/td>-12 pts<\/b><\/td>-7%<\/b><\/td>-19%<\/b><\/td> $323,245<\/b><\/td>8%<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Relatively affordable places including San Antonio and Baltimore have seen housing supply plummet, while San Francisco has experienced a flood of homes for sale as Americans flee dense, expensive 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