{"id":73081,"date":"2021-08-25T06:45:23","date_gmt":"2021-08-25T13:45:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=73081"},"modified":"2021-09-08T13:00:28","modified_gmt":"2021-09-08T20:00:28","slug":"climate-migration-real-estate-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/climate-migration-real-estate-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"More People Are Moving In Than Out of Areas Facing High Risk From Climate Change"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong><i>The U.S. counties with the largest share of homes facing high heat, drought, fire, flood and storm risk saw their populations grow from 2016-2020 due to migration.<\/i><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong><i>The counties with the smallest share of homes facing climate risk largely saw their populations decline.<\/i><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong><i>Relative affordability may be playing a role: Counties where many homes face high heat risk are less expensive on average than counties where few homes face high heat risk.<\/i><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">America\u2019s disaster-prone areas are becoming more populous as new residents move in, according to a new Redfin analysis. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The 50 U.S. counties with the largest share of homes facing high heat risk saw their populations increase by an average of 4.7% from 2016 through 2020 due to positive net migration. Meanwhile, the 50 counties with the largest percentage of homes facing high drought, fire, flood and storm risk experienced average population growth of 3.5%, 3%, 1.9% and 0.4%, respectively, due to positive net migration.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Positive net migration means more people moved in than out, while negative net migration means more people moved out than in. The term \u201cmigration\u201d includes both domestic and international migrants, and should not be confused with \u201cimmigration,\u201d which refers only to people moving in from a different country.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is according to a Redfin analysis of data from <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">climate-data startup <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/climatecheck.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ClimateCheck<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, county property records and the U.S. Census Bureau. For each<a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/guides\/climate-change-housing-impact\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> climate-change risk<\/a>\u2014heat, drought, fire, flood and storm\u2014we analyzed the 50 U.S. counties with the greatest share of homes facing high risk and the 50 counties with the lowest share of homes facing high risk. Counties must have had at least 500 homes as of Aug. 2, 2021 to be included in this analysis.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-73082\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/FINAL-CLIMATE-CHART.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"553\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/FINAL-CLIMATE-CHART.png 1300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/FINAL-CLIMATE-CHART-300x207.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/FINAL-CLIMATE-CHART-1024x708.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/FINAL-CLIMATE-CHART-768x531.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Places with relatively low climate risk have experienced the opposite trend: population decline. The 50 counties with the<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> lowest<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> share of homes facing high heat risk saw their populations decrease by an average of 1.4% from 2016 through 2020 due to negative net migration. Meanwhile, the 50 counties with the smallest percentage of homes facing high drought, fire and flood risk experienced average migration-driven population declines of 1.1%, 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively. Bucking the trend were the 50 counties with the lowest share of homes facing high storm risk, which experienced 0.9% population growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cPeople have been gravitating to places with severe climate risk because many of these areas are relatively affordable, have lower property taxes, more housing options or access to nature,\u201d said Redfin Economist <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/sebastian-olascoagaredfin-com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sebastian Sandoval-Olascoaga<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. \u201cFor a lot of people, these benefits seem to outweigh the dangers of climate change. But as natural disasters become more frequent, homeowners in these areas may end up losing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/blog\/how-does-climate-change-affect-property-values\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">property value<\/a> or face considerable difficulty getting their properties insured against environmental disasters.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Of the 50 counties with the largest share of properties facing high heat risk, 40 had median sale prices below the national level ($315,000) in 2020. Of the 50 counties with the largest share of properties facing high storm risk, 30 had median sale prices below the national level last year. Data on relative affordability in counties with high fire, drought and flood risk is unavailable due to insufficient sale-price data in many of the counties.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Population growth in areas endangered by climate change has coincided with intensifying natural disasters across the country. There were <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nifc.gov\/fire-information\/nfn\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">104<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> large, active wildfires burning in the U.S. as of Aug. 19, triggering <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2021\/08\/19\/weather\/us-western-wildfires-thursday\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">evacuation<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> orders for thousands of residents. Smoke from the West has <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/07\/20\/us\/wildfire-smoke-new-york-city.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">spread<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> as far as New York City. In California, the Dixie Fire has <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2021\/08\/09\/1026078606\/dixie-fire-california-only-21-percent-contained\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">destroyed<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> more than 650,000 acres, becoming the second-largest fire in the state\u2019s history. It was only <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.plumascounty.us\/2868\/Dixie-Fire-Information\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">35%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> contained as of Aug. 19. Nearly the entire West is grappling with <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/droughtmonitor.unl.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">drought<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and record-breaking <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2021\/06\/26\/weather\/heat-wave-forecast-west-east-coast\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">heat waves<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> across the U.S. and Canada <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2021\/08\/11\/climate\/deaths-pacific-northwest-heat-wave.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">killed<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> hundreds of\u00a0 people this summer. Atlantic hurricane season is also shaping up to be <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2021\/08\/04\/weather\/hurricane-season-forecast-update-2021\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">worse<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than expected.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-73083\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/All_risks.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"644\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/All_risks.png 1491w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/All_risks-300x241.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/All_risks-1024x824.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/All_risks-768x618.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/All_risks-1536x1236.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/All_risks-2048x1649.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cIt is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land,\u201d scientists wrote in a groundbreaking United Nations <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg1\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">report<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> this month. \u201cMany changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millennia.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fortunately, there is still a window of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/08\/09\/climate\/climate-change-report-ipcc-un.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">opportunity<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to prevent climate change from intensifying further, and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/fact-tank\/2020\/04\/16\/u-s-concern-about-climate-change-is-rising-but-mainly-among-democrats\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">awareness<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is on the rise. A February Redfin <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/climate-change-migration-survey\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">survey<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> found that the increasing frequency or intensity of natural disasters was a consideration for almost half of respondents who planned to move in the next year. Redfin now <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.prnewswire.com\/news-releases\/redfin-publishes-data-from-climatecheck-to-help-consumers-understand-the-risk-for-fire-heat-drought-and-storms-over-a-30-year-mortgage-301346236.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">publishes<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0climate-risk data for every location page on its website to help house hunters make more informed decisions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Climate Migration: Counties With High Heat Risk<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Heat risk is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/climatecheck.com\/our-methodologies\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">based<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> on the number of extremely hot days expected in the future. Of the 50 U.S. counties with the highest share of properties facing high heat risk, 37 are in the South, with one-third (17) in Florida alone. More than half (33) of those 50 counties experienced positive net migration over the last five years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Williamson County, TX\u2014part of the Austin metro area where every home faces <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/2885\/TX\/Williamson-County\/housing-market#climate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">high heat risk<\/a>\u2014saw its population grow 16.3% due to positive net migration from 2016 through 2020. That\u2019s the highest growth rate of the 50 counties Redfin analyzed. It was followed by Pinal County, AZ (just south of Phoenix), which had a positive net migration rate of 15.5%. Rounding out the top five were three Florida counties: Pasco County (15.4%), Osceola County (14.6%) and Manatee County (13.5%).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Migration to places with high <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/guides\/climate-change-housing-impact\/heat-risk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">heat risk<\/a> has accelerated over time: All but one of the top five counties saw their net migration rates increase from the prior five-year period\u20142011 through 2015. The largest jump was in Pinal County, where the rate jumped from 4.1% (2011 through 2015) to 15.5% (2016 through 2020).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Top Five High-Heat-Risk Counties By 2016-2020 Net Migration Rate<\/b><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><b>Net Migration Rate, 2016-2020<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Net Migration Rate, 2011-2015<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Number of Homes With High Heat Risk<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Dollar Value of Homes With High Heat Risk<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Share of Homes With High Heat Risk<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Median Sale Price (2020)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/2885\/TX\/Williamson-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Williamson County, TX<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">16.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">12.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">200,250<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$88,880,025,301<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">100%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$304,295<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/224\/AZ\/Pinal-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Pinal County, AZ\u00a0<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">15.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">4.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">139,891<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$47,279,687,220<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">100%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$258,158<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/487\/FL\/Pasco-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Pasco County, FL\u00a0<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">15.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">194,001<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$52,656,679,700<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">100%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$238,964<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/485\/FL\/Osceola-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Osceola County, FL\u00a0<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">14.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">14.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">134,856<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$38,981,773,642<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">100%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$260,583<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/476\/FL\/Manatee-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Manatee County, FL\u00a0<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">13.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">11.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">164,900<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$65,584,816,014<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">100%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$304,175<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">All five of the counties in the table above are part of metropolitan areas that have been surging in popularity among out-of-towners. The Phoenix metro area was the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/q2-2021-housing-migration-trends\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">number-one<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> U.S. migration destination in the second quarter of 2021, with 37.5% of Redfin.com home searches coming from outside the metro. Austin was close behind, along with the Tampa and Orlando metros, which include the Florida counties in the table above. Interest in warm, relatively affordable areas\u2014especially in suburbs of large cities\u2014has accelerated during the pandemic.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Williamson County, which includes the northern tip of Austin, has exploded in recent years as major companies have set up shop in the area and developers have built more apartments, entertainment and shopping centers, according to local Redfin real estate agent <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/real-estate-agents\/barb-cooper\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Barb Cooper<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Dell Technologies Inc. is headquartered in Williamson County, and Apple Inc. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kxan.com\/news\/business\/apples-1b-austin-campus-nearly-finished-move-in-set-for-2022\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">plans<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to have 5,000 employees in its new $1 billion Williamson County <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.apple.com\/newsroom\/2019\/11\/apple-expands-in-austin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">campus<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> next year. There are also several universities and a new hospital complex located in the area.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cWilliamson County includes many of the Austin suburbs that have seen exponential growth as more folks have moved in from outside the area\u2014especially California\u2014in search of more space and relative affordability,\u201d Cooper said. \u201cIt used to be really hard to sell a custom home with a pool on an acre of land here, and now those homes are selling like hotcakes because so many people are working remotely and want room for home offices. And if they need to go into their actual office, it\u2019s an easy commute to the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/northwest-austin-texas-domain-second-downtown-tech-headquarters-offices-pictures-2019-10\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">tech hub<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in Northwest Austin.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cooper continued: \u201cHomebuyers in Williamson County sometimes ask about utility costs\u2014especially after the major <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/02\/17\/climate\/texas-blackouts-disinformation.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">power outage<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> caused by the snowstorm this winter\u2014but they don\u2019t seem too concerned about the heat,\u201d Cooper said. \u201cPart of that may be because you don\u2019t know what you don\u2019t know; if you come from an area that hasn&#8217;t experienced significant heat or drought, you might not be aware of the implications for homeowners. For example, when it gets hot and dry here, local authorities often put restrictions on how much water homeowners can use, shut down car washes and only let people water their yards on certain days.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The weather in Williamson County is actually a lure for some house hunters coming from chillier states or from Northern Texas, which has a more humid climate, Cooper added.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-73084\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Heat.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"614\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Heat.png 1564w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Heat-300x230.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Heat-1024x786.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Heat-768x589.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Heat-1536x1179.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Heat-2048x1572.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Climate Migration: Counties With High Drought Risk<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/guides\/climate-change-housing-impact\/drought-risk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Drought risk<\/a> is based on expected water-supply stress, which measures how much of the available water in an area is used by humans. Of the 50 counties with the highest share of properties facing high drought risk, 34 are in the West, with 21 in Colorado alone. More than half (38) of those 50 counties experienced positive net migration over the past five years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Custer County, CO\u2014a rural area south of Denver where nearly every home faces high heat risk\u2014experienced 16.8% population growth due to positive net migration from 2016 through 2020. That\u2019s the highest growth rate of the 50 counties Redfin analyzed. It was followed by Denton County, TX (north of Dallas), which had a positive net migration rate of 13%. Next came Oconee County, GA (12.6%), Huerfano County, CO (11.9%) and Chaffee County, CO (11.5%). All five counties saw their net migration rates increase from the prior five-year period.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Top Five High-Drought-Risk Counties By 2016-2020 Net Migration Rate<\/b><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><b>Net Migration Rate, 2016-2020<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Net Migration Rate, 2011-2015<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Number of Homes With High Drought Risk<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Dollar Value of Homes With High Drought Risk<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Share of Homes With High Drought Risk<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Median Sale Price (2020)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Custer County, CO\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">16.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">4.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3,869<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A*<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">100%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2020<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/2700\/TX\/Denton-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Denton County, TX\u00a0<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">13%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">11%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">259,506<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$107,708,019,969<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">99.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$327,620<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/611\/GA\/Oconee-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Oconee County, GA\u00a0<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">12.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">6.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">13,197<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$5,705,583,741<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">100%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2020<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Huerfano County, CO<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">11.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-0.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3,597<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A*<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">100%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2020<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/369\/CO\/Chaffee-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Chaffee County, CO<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">11.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">5.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7,033<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$3,692,484,404<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">100%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$425,888<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">*Redfin Estimates were not available for given county<br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2020<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MLS sale-price data was not available for given county<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-73085\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Drought.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"631\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Drought.png 1522w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Drought-300x236.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Drought-1024x807.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Drought-768x605.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Drought-1536x1211.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Drought-2048x1614.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Climate Migration: Counties With High Fire Risk<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/guides\/climate-change-housing-impact\/fire-risk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fire risk<\/a> is based on projections of the average share of the area surrounding a home that will burn annually. Of the 50 counties with the highest share of properties facing high fire risk, 31 are in the West. More than half (34) of those 50 counties experienced positive net migration over the past five years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Custer County, CO experienced 16.8% population growth due to positive net migration from 2016 through 2020\u2014the highest positive net migration rate of the 50 counties Redfin analyzed. It was followed by Boise County, ID, which had a positive net migration rate of 15.2%, and Wasatch County, UT, which is just outside of Salt Lake City and had a positive net migration rate of 14.7%. Rounding out the top five were Adams County, ID (14.2%) and Archuleta County, CO (12.8%). Four of the five counties saw their net migration rates increase from the prior five-year period.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Top Five High-Fire-Risk Counties By 2016-2020 Net Migration Rate<\/b><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><b>Net Migration Rate, 2016-2020<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Net Migration Rate, 2011-2015<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Number of Homes With High Fire Risk<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Dollar Value of Homes With High Fire Risk<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Share of Homes With High Fire Risk<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Median Sale Price (2020)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Custer County, CO<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">16.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">4.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3,702<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A*<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">95.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2020<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/675\/ID\/Boise-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Boise County, ID<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">15.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">917<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$324,381,089<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">98.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$355,326<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/2919\/UT\/Wasatch-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Wasatch County, UT<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">14.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">15%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">20,376<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$16,796,475,421<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">96%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$648,257<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/669\/ID\/Adams-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Adams County, ID<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">14.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-0.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1,193<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$449,525,824<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">96.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$343,790<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Archuleta County, CO<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">12.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7,343<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A*<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">98.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2020<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">*Redfin Estimates were not available for given county<br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2020<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MLS sale-price data was not available for given county\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Boise County and Wasatch County are rural, mountainous regions outside of Boise and Salt Lake City, respectively. The <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/out-of-town-buyers-expensive-homes\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Boise<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and Salt Lake City areas have become increasingly popular with out-of-towners in recent years\u2014a trend that accelerated during the pandemic as house hunters sought relative affordability, space and access to the outdoors. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">More than a<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> third <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(35.7%) of Redfin.com home searches in the Salt Lake City metropolitan area came from outside of the metro in the first quarter, up from 26.8% a year earlier. Utah, which has a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wildfire-real-estate-risk-2021\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">larger<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> share of homes facing high fire risk than any other Western state <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wildfire-real-estate-risk-2021\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">analyzed<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by Redfin, has seen its population<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/library\/stories\/2021\/04\/2020-census-data-release.html#:~:text=2020%20Census%20Resident%20Population&amp;text=Those%20five%20states%20%E2%80%93%20Wyoming%2C%20Vermont,%2C%20Nevada%20(Table%202).\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">grow<\/span><\/a> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">faster than any other state.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cSalt Lake City proper is relatively insulated from fires because it\u2019s located in a valley, but much of the mountainous area surrounding it\u2014especially the Wasatch Range to the east and the north\u2014is covered with dry vegetation that\u2019s prone to burning. A lot of people live in these mountains or right up against them,\u201d said<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/real-estate-agents\/ryan-aycock\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Ryan Aycock<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, Redfin\u2019s market manager in Salt Lake City. \u201cMany of the homes in Wasatch Range are farm communities or cabins, but there are also luxury homes at risk in <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/15045\/UT\/Park-City\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Park City<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, a resort town that\u2019s been very popular during the pandemic. Park City is a mix of vacation and primary homes, but we\u2019ve recently seen an increase of families coming in from <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/16163\/WA\/Seattle\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Seattle<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, California and New York to buy primary homes because they can work from anywhere and want to be near great skiing and hiking.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Aycock continued: \u201cFor the most part, the buyers and sellers don\u2019t seem too worried about fires. They\u2019re more concerned about droughts and water shortages,\u201d Aycock said. \u201cWe\u2019ve had a lot of near misses in Utah\u2014there will be a fire warning, and then the fire isn\u2019t as bad as people feared. It\u2019s a bit of a boy-who-cried-wolf situation. A lot of folks could be caught flat-footed if a major fire does hit their community. Anyone who\u2019s considering moving to the area should read the local <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ffsl.utah.gov\/fire\/wildfire-community-preparedness\/community-fire-planning\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">fire planning<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and evacuation guides and create their own plan of action so they\u2019re prepared when fires hit.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-73086\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Fire.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"630\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Fire.png 1524w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Fire-300x236.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Fire-1024x807.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Fire-768x605.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Fire-1536x1210.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Fire-2048x1613.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Climate Migration: Counties With High Flood Risk<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/guides\/climate-change-housing-impact\/flood-risk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Flood risk<\/a> is based on the likelihood of significant flooding between 2020 and 2050. Of the 50 counties with the highest share of properties facing high flood risk, a majority (47) are in the South\u2014specifically in Florida, Louisiana and North Carolina. Just over half (28) of those 50 counties experienced positive net migration from 2016 through 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Horry County, SC, which includes Myrtle Beach, experienced 17.6% population growth from 2016 through 2020 due to positive net migration. That\u2019s the highest increase among the 50 counties Redfin analyzed. It was followed by Charlotte County, FL at 16.8%, Sarasota County, FL (includes Sarasota) at 12.7%, Lee County, FL at 12.7% and Bryan County, GA (just south of Savannah) at 12.2%. All five counties saw their positive net migration rates increase from the prior five-year period.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Top Five High-Flood-Risk Counties By 2016-2020 Net Migration Rate<\/b><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><b>Net Migration Rate, 2016-2020<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Net Migration Rate, 2011-2015<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Number of Homes With High Flood Risk<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Dollar Value of Homes With High Flood Risk<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Share of Homes With High Flood Risk<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Median Sale Price (2020)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/2458\/SC\/Horry-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Horry County, SC<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">17.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">12.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">125,093<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$32,428,236,668<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">54.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$219,525<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/444\/FL\/Charlotte-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Charlotte County, FL<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">16.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">11.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">81,573<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$26,672,852,475<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">84.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$240,742<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/494\/FL\/Sarasota-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Sarasota County, FL<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">12.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">9.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">119,551<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$69,558,340,052<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">53.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$296,781<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/471\/FL\/Lee-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Lee County, FL<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">12.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">11.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">295,476<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$121,983,528,367<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">80.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$257,717<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/518\/GA\/Bryan-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Bryan County, GA<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">12.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">9.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7,994<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A*<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">58.0%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$276,720<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">*Redfin Estimates were not available for given county<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-73089\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Flood-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"631\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Flood-1.png 1521w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Flood-1-300x237.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Flood-1-1024x808.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Flood-1-768x606.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Flood-1-1536x1212.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Flood-1-2048x1616.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Climate Migration: Counties With High Storm Risk<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/guides\/climate-change-housing-impact\/storm-risk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Storm risk<\/a> is based on projections of the number of extremely wet or snowy events and the amount of rain or snow that will fall during storms. Of the 50 counties with the highest share of properties facing high storm risk, a majority are in the Northeast or Southeast. While 20 of those 50 counties experienced positive net migration over the past five years, the remainder experienced negative net migration.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lee County, FL, which includes the cities of Cape Coral and Fort Myers, experienced 12.7% population growth from 2016 through 2020 due to positive net migration. That\u2019s the highest increase among the 50 counties Redfin analyzed. It was followed by Brevard County, FL (includes Cape Canaveral), which had a positive net migration rate of 9.2%. Next came Hillsborough County, FL (includes Tampa) at 7.2%, Wake County, NC (includes Raleigh) at 7% and Pierce County, WA (includes Tacoma) at 5.4%. Three of the five counties saw their positive net migration rates increase from the prior five-year period.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Top Five High-Storm-Risk Counties By 2016-2020 Net Migration Rate<\/b><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><b>Net Migration Rate, 2016-2020<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Net Migration Rate, 2011-2015<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Number of Homes With High Storm Risk<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Dollar Value of Homes With High Storm Risk<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Share of Homes With High Storm Risk<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Median Sale Price (2020)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/471\/FL\/Lee-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Lee County, FL<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">12.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">11.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">368,149<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$140,838,419,240<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">100%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$257,717<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/441\/FL\/Brevard-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Brevard County, FL<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">9.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">5.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">246,483<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$78,178,439,832<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">100%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$251,809<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/464\/FL\/Hillsborough-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Hillsborough County, FL<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">446,769<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$151,507,295,021<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">100%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$262,507<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/2098\/NC\/Wake-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Wake County, NC<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">369,636<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$152,086,486,189<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">100%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$336,847<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/3096\/WA\/Pierce-County\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Pierce County, WA<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">5.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">266,983<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$141,600,703,809<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">100%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$415,563<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cape Coral, Tampa and Orlando\u2014all of which are prone to hurricanes\u2014were among the 10 most <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/q2-2021-housing-migration-trends\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">popular<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> migration destinations in the second quarter, and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/q1-2019-housing-migration-report\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Raleigh<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> has made the list in years past. Meanwhile, Tacoma was <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/hot-housing-market-tacoma\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">named<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> the hottest housing market by Redfin in 2019, fueled by an influx of residents who had been priced out of Seattle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Of the 50 counties with the greatest share of homes facing high storm risk, Kings County, NY (Brooklyn), Queens County, NY (Queens) and Cook County, IL (Chicago) experienced the greatest population <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">declines<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> due to negative net migration, falling a respective 7%, 6.4% and 4.7% from 2016 through 2020. New York and Illinois were <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/politics\/2020\/12\/23\/new-york-population-decline-coronavirus-house-seats\/4023477001\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">leading<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> the country in population declines even before the pandemic, which exacerbated an <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/april-may-2021-housing-migration-trends\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">exodus<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from major job centers.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-73088\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Storm.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"628\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Storm.png 1529w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Storm-300x235.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Storm-1024x803.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Storm-768x603.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Storm-1536x1205.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Storm-2048x1607.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Methodology<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Climate-risk data for drought, fire, flood, heat, and storm comes from <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/climatecheck.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ClimateCheck<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which assigns six different climate-risk categories to properties across the U.S.\u2014very low, low, moderate, high, very high and extreme. For this report, a \u201chigh-risk\u201d property is one that falls into the high, very high, or extreme category for a given climate risk. The climate-risk data in this report is as of March 31, 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For each environmental disaster\u2014drought, fire, flood, heat, and storm\u2014we identified the 50 U.S. counties with the largest share of homes facing high risk. Counties must have had at least 500 homes as of Aug. 2, 2021 to be included. We then calculated net migration from 2016 through 2020 and 2011 through 2015. Net migration (the difference between the number of international and domestic people moving into an area and the number moving out) data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau\u2019s Vintage 2020 population estimates. We calculated five-year cumulative net migration by adding each yearly estimate for those years. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The value of homes at risk is the sum of the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/redfin-estimate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin Estimates<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of the homes\u2019 market values as of Aug. 2, 2021. We only show dollar values of homes facing high climate risk for those counties covered by Redfin Estimates. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Median sale prices for 2020 were calculated by averaging monthly median sale prices during that year.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. counties with the largest share of homes facing high heat, drought, fire, flood and storm risk saw their populations grow from 2016-2020 due to migration. The counties with the smallest share of homes facing climate risk largely saw their populations decline. Relative affordability may be playing a role: Counties where many homes face [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13346,"featured_media":73115,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[52,43,42],"tags":[40,21],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[125,297],"class_list":["post-73081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-change","category-housing-equality-policy","category-migration","tag-environmental","tag-migration"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>America&#039;s Climate-Change-Prone Areas Are Seeing Their Populations Swell<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The U.S. counties with the largest share of homes facing high heat, drought, fire, flood and storm risk are becoming more populous due to migration.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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