{"id":73235,"date":"2021-10-06T02:00:50","date_gmt":"2021-10-06T09:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=73235"},"modified":"2021-10-12T15:32:01","modified_gmt":"2021-10-12T22:32:01","slug":"california-wildfire-housing-market-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/california-wildfire-housing-market-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"Home Prices Grow at Much Slower Rate in Towns Burned by California\u2019s Most Destructive Wildfires"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 1.1em;\">In the three years after major fires, home prices rise 21% in directly-hit areas on average, compared with 33% growth just outside of fire zones.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 1.1em;\">Home purchases start to recover by year three after a fire, following a 43% plunge in the first year after the blaze.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 1.1em;\">New-home construction surges nearly 600% after fires amid efforts to rebuild, which contributes to rising prices because new homes tend to be pricier.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 1.1em;\">All-cash home purchases jump 17% in the wake of fires as investors and builders buy up land in search of profit.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 1.1em;\">Property-tax revenue falls 6% in areas directly hit by fires, compared with a 12% gain outside fire boundaries.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 1.1em;\">Leaders should incentivize builders to create more housing in regions resilient to wildfires and other natural disasters.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is according to a Redfin analysis of housing-market activity following the five largest California wildfires between 2010 and 2020. We define the largest wildfires as those that had the highest number of homes inside the fire perimeters. We compare the areas inside the fire perimeters with those directly outside.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-73236\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/Fires_chart.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"809\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/Fires_chart.png 1200w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/Fires_chart-297x300.png 297w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/Fires_chart-1013x1024.png 1013w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/Fires_chart-768x776.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/Fires_chart-1520x1536.png 1520w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/Fires_chart-2026x2048.png 2026w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the areas within the fire perimeters, home purchases declined by an average of 38% during the three years after the blazes. That\u2019s in part because when homes in a community burn down, there are fewer properties available to sell, said Redfin Chief Economist <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/darylfairweather\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Daryl Fairweather<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. By comparison, purchases only declined by an average of 3% in areas that <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">surrounded<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> the fires.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home purchases inside the fire perimeters suffered the most during the first year after the fires, plummeting 43%. By year three, that decline had shrunk to 29%, as more homes were rebuilt and memories of the fires grew increasingly distant.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>How to read the charts:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The data in the charts below represent averages across all five wildfires. The charts show how home sales, prices, new construction, all-cash purchases and property taxes changed in the aftermath of the fires. In each chart, we show how a metric changed in the first, second and third years following the disasters, as well as the average change across those three years. When we measure change, we\u2019re comparing each metric to the average seen during the three years leading up to the fires. For example, fire-ravaged areas saw 43% fewer home purchases during the first year after the fires than they saw on average during the three years before the fires. That decline narrowed to 41% in the second year after the fires and 29% in the third year. The average decline during the three years after the fires was 38%, as shown by the horizontal red line in the chart below.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-73237\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/SALES-CHART-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1302\" height=\"899\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/SALES-CHART-1.png 1302w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/SALES-CHART-1-300x207.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/SALES-CHART-1-1024x707.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/SALES-CHART-1-768x530.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1302px) 100vw, 1302px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cImmediately after a big wildfire, there are people who are scared to move to the area,\u201d said <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/real-estate-agents\/c-anderson\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Christopher Anderson<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, a Redfin real estate agent in <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/12914\/CA\/Napa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Napa, CA<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which was hit by the Tubbs Fire in 2017. \u201cBut with time, that fear tends to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/climate-migration-real-estate-2021\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">subside<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. In Napa, that\u2019s partly because it\u2019s a beautiful place where folks really want to be. People feel confident that local leaders and homeowners will prioritize fire mitigation to keep the community safe. Many rural, less populous areas aren\u2019t so lucky.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are $628 billion worth of homes in California that face high <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/guides\/climate-change-housing-impact\/fire-risk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fire risk<\/a>, more than any other Western state <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wildfire-real-estate-risk-2021\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">analyzed<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by Redfin in June. Buying one of those homes comes with responsibility\u2014much of it financial. Home-insurance premiums have <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com\/2021\/05\/10\/homebuyers-in-northern-california-high-fire-zones-see-insurance-rates-go-through-the-roof\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">skyrocketed<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and private insurance companies now refuse to cover some at-risk regions. That has forced many house hunters to search for a home elsewhere or opt for the state\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfpnet.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">insurance plan<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which is significantly more expensive, Anderson said. Even with insurance, California homeowners frequently end up investing thousands of dollars in \u201chardening\u201d their properties against fires. That can mean cutting back vegetation and\/or replacing wood structures with <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/california-wildfires\/article\/How-one-foil-wrapped-home-survived-the-Caldor-16444302.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">metal<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> or stone.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cHomeowners are taking a much more active approach to wildfires than ever before. People have started buying pumps for their pools so they can use the water to extinguish a fire,\u201d Anderson said. \u201cLocal leaders are also being proactive. In some areas, they\u2019re hiring cherry pickers to trim back flammable trees, and a new law went into effect at the start of the year that <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vcstar.com\/story\/news\/2021\/07\/30\/new-real-estate-disclosure-spurs-owners-protect-homes-against-wildfire\/7807807002\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">requires<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> sellers in high-danger areas to disclose fire risk.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fire-Ravaged Areas See 21% Increase in Home Prices, While Areas Just Outside Fire Zones See 33% Growth<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While home purchases fell in the wake of California\u2019s most destructive wildfires, housing prices rose. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the three years after the fires, home prices climbed by 21% on average, compared with 33% growth in areas just outside the reach of the fires.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-73238\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/PRICES-CHART-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1302\" height=\"899\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/PRICES-CHART-2.png 1302w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/PRICES-CHART-2-300x207.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/PRICES-CHART-2-1024x707.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/PRICES-CHART-2-768x530.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1302px) 100vw, 1302px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cLike much of the U.S., California is facing an acute housing shortage. That means there are often intense <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/real-estate-bidding-wars-august-2021\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">bidding wars<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for the homes that <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">are<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for sale\u2014even those in fire-prone areas\u2014which contributes to the rise in prices,\u201d Fairweather said. \u201cThe wildfires themselves are also making housing more expensive. After a town burns, builders come in and construct new homes, which are typically more expensive. And homeowners who stay frequently invest in making their homes more fireproof, which increases property value.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fairweather continued: \u201cGovernments should focus on incentivizing builders to create more housing in places with low fire risk\u2014areas that don\u2019t require as much costly investment in mitigating the dangers of climate change.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cash Purchases Jump 17% in Wildfire-Hit Areas as Investors and Builders Swoop In, Compared With a 5% Drop Outside Fire Zones<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In areas directly impacted by the fires Redfin analyzed, there was a 17% average increase in all-cash home purchases during the three years after the fires. By comparison, home purchases paid for with cash declined 5% in areas located just outside of the fire perimeters.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-73239\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/CASH-FINAL-CHART.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1302\" height=\"899\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/CASH-FINAL-CHART.png 1302w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/CASH-FINAL-CHART-300x207.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/CASH-FINAL-CHART-1024x707.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/CASH-FINAL-CHART-768x530.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1302px) 100vw, 1302px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">An increase in home and land purchases by investors and homebuilders\u2014who frequently pay with cash\u2014is likely the driving force, according to Anderson.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cIn the Napa Valley, builders show up right after fires happen. Communities want to rebuild, so local authorities tend to fast-track permits and design reviews, and push properties hit by fires to the front of the line,\u201d Anderson said. \u201cThey build homes in four to six months after fires, whereas normally it can take a year and a half for a builder to get a shovel in the ground.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the areas Redfin analyzed that were directly impacted by fires, there was a 595% average increase in the number of homes built during the three years after the fires. That compares with a 6% decrease in the areas that fell outside of the fire perimeters. The surge in construction activity after wildfires contributes to the increase in home prices discussed earlier in this report.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-73240\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/CONSTRUCTION-FINAL-CHART.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1302\" height=\"899\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/CONSTRUCTION-FINAL-CHART.png 1302w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/CONSTRUCTION-FINAL-CHART-300x207.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/CONSTRUCTION-FINAL-CHART-1024x707.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/CONSTRUCTION-FINAL-CHART-768x530.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1302px) 100vw, 1302px\" \/>Builders wouldn\u2019t be rebuilding homes in high-risk areas if they weren\u2019t confident people would move in, and research shows they\u2019re right. More people are moving in than out of areas facing high risk from wildfires and other natural disasters tied to climate change, according to an August Redfin <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/climate-migration-real-estate-2021\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">report<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Recovering lost tax revenue is another incentive that drives communities to rebuild quickly after wildfires, Fairweather said. In the areas Redfin analyzed that were directly impacted by fires, property-tax revenue dropped 6% on average in the three years following the fires. By comparison, there was a 12% increase in property-tax revenue in places that weren\u2019t directly within the fires\u2019 reach.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-73241\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/FINAL-TAXES.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1302\" height=\"899\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/FINAL-TAXES.png 1302w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/FINAL-TAXES-300x207.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/FINAL-TAXES-1024x707.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/FINAL-TAXES-768x530.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1302px) 100vw, 1302px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Leaders Should Encourage Homebuilding in Low-Risk Areas<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As climate change continues to fuel life-threatening wildfires, local and federal leaders should develop plans to mitigate the risks of natural disasters and keep their communities safe. Here are several potential solutions, from Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Limit building in high-risk places:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> To limit the number of people living in high-risk areas, the federal or state government can incentivize construction elsewhere. This can be done by financially compensating communities that <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">don\u2019t<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> rebuild\u2014which can help ease the burden of lost tax revenue\u2014or by taxing the land or building types with the highest risk. Governments can also purchase land where homes have burnt down and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2021\/08\/23\/1028126348\/in-fire-scorched-california-town-aims-to-buy-the-highest-at-risk-properties\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">repurpose<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> it for another use, such as a nature preserve.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>Eliminate single-family zoning: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Banning single-family zoning and other restrictive zoning practices in cities that are resilient to climate change allows for more dense housing, and therefore more people, in those relatively safe areas. The federal government can also offer financial incentives to builders with projects in climate-resilient cities, and\/or compensate individuals for moving to those areas.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Raise awareness about risk: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In places with high fire danger, authorities should provide resources that make clear the level of risk a person faces by moving to the area. Redfin now <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/press.redfin.com\/news-releases\/news-release-details\/redfin-publishes-data-climatecheck-help-consumers-understand\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">publishes<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> climate-risk information for every location page on its website. Local leaders should also provide proactive<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/firesafemarin.org\/harden-your-home\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> guidance<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> on how homeowners can fortify their properties against fires, and detailed escape routes for residents to follow in the event of fires.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fire-Level Summary: Five Most Destructive California Wildfires, 2010-2020<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Figures in the table below represent the change from the three years before the fire to the three years after the fire, on average.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><b>Change in average home-sale price (per square foot)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Change in number of homes purchased (AKA homes sold)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Change in number of homes purchased with all cash<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Change in number of new homes built<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Change in average property tax revenue collected<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Camp Fire (2018)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Areas within fire perimeter<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">37%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-69%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">65%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">673%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-58%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Areas surrounding fire perimeter<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">14%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">23%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-39%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">15%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Woolsey Fire (2018<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Areas within fire perimeter<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">109%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Areas surrounding fire perimeter<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">27%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">10%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Thomas Fire (2017)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Areas within fire perimeter<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">21%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-25%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">14%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">94%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Areas surrounding fire perimeter<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">47%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">31%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">13%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Tubbs Fire (2017)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Areas within fire perimeter<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">25%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-14%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">61%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1,372%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-31%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Areas surrounding fire perimeter<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">35%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-4%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">59%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">12%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Valley Fire (2015)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Areas within fire perimeter<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">46%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-39%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-38%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">604%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-23%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Areas surrounding fire perimeter<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">4%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">16%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-30%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">9%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>All five fires<\/b><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Areas within fire perimeter<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">21%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-38%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">17%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">595%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-6%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Areas surrounding fire perimeter<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">33%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">12%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Methodology<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fire perimeter data comes from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection\u2019s Fire and Resource Assessment Program. We selected the five biggest California wildfires\u2014based on the number of residential properties within fire perimeters\u2014between 2010 and 2020. These fires were the Valley (2015), Tubbs (2017), Thomas (2017), Woolsey (2018), and Camp (2018) fires. To understand the impact of wildfires, we compared the affected areas three years before the fires to the affected areas three years after the fires. We also compared those areas to areas surrounding, but not within, the fire perimeters. We selected these surrounding areas by first measuring the distance from the center to the edge of the fire, and then expanding the fire perimeter by that distance on all sides.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Data on home sales, home-sale prices, taxes, all-cash purchases and new construction came from MLS and county records.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the three years after major fires, home prices rise 21% in directly-hit areas on average, compared with 33% growth just outside of fire zones. Home purchases start to recover by year three after a fire, following a 43% plunge in the first year after the blaze. New-home construction surges nearly 600% after fires amid [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13346,"featured_media":73242,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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