{"id":73776,"date":"2022-01-28T05:00:56","date_gmt":"2022-01-28T13:00:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=73776"},"modified":"2022-04-27T12:53:07","modified_gmt":"2022-04-27T19:53:07","slug":"migration-inflation-analysis-q4-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/migration-inflation-analysis-q4-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"Prices For Consumer Goods Are Rising Quickest in America\u2019s Top Migration Destinations"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Atlanta, Phoenix and Tampa have relatively high rates of inflation<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">between 8% and 9%<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">and they\u2019re all popular migration destinations. That\u2019s double the inflation rates in San Francisco and New York, places people are moving away from.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Migration into those places is one reason for rapidly rising prices of consumer goods and services.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Because of high inflation, including rising home prices, the financial advantage of living in what are now relatively affordable places is likely to diminish. <\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The most popular U.S. migration destinations tend to have high rates of inflation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Atlanta, the 10th most popular migration destination in the fourth quarter, saw prices of goods and services increase by 8.9% year over year during the same period, the highest inflation rate of all the metros included in this analysis.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Phoenix, with an 8.4% year over year increase in prices, came in number two for both inflation and migration in the fourth quarter. In Tampa\u2014the fifth most popular destination\u2014prices rose 8% year over year, the third highest inflation rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the flip side, San Francisco, the number-one place Americans moved away from during the fourth quarter, had the lowest inflation rate (4%). New York, which had the second-lowest inflation rate (4.6%), ranked number three on the list of places people are leaving, and Los Angeles\u2014number two on the list of places people are leaving\u2014had the seventh-lowest inflation rate (6%).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home prices are rising particularly quickly in the most popular migration destinations, one contributor to inflation. For instance, Atlanta home prices were up 22.8% year over year in December, compared with a 10.3% increase in San Francisco.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-73780 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/migration-and-inflation-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/migration-and-inflation-1.png 800w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/migration-and-inflation-1-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/migration-and-inflation-1-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This report is based on a Redfin analysis of the correlation between inflation (the rising prices of goods and services) and migration in metro areas where inflation data is available. The analysis measures the popularity of migration destinations by net inflow, or how many more Redfin.com users are looking to move into a metro area than move out of it. Inflation rates are measured by the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/cpi\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Consumer Price Index<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, the average change over time in prices for goods and services such as fuel and energy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">National consumer prices <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/01\/12\/cpi-december-2021-.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">jumped 7%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in December from a year earlier, reaching their highest level in nearly 40 years. Policymakers consider 2% an <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/faqs\/5D58E72F066A4DBDA80BBA659C55F774.htm#:~:text=The%20Federal%20Reserve%20has%20not,percent%20or%20a%20bit%20below.&amp;text=Having%20at%20least%20a%20small,deflation%20if%20the%20economy%20weakens.\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">acceptable level<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of inflation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As an example of varying inflation rates in different areas, gas prices were up <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/regions\/west\/news-release\/consumerpriceindex_phoenix.htm\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">67.2%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> year over year in December in the Phoenix metro, and prices of cars and trucks were up 34.4%. Prices also rose in the Los Angeles metro, the number-one origin for people moving to Phoenix, but not as much: gas prices were up <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/regions\/west\/news-release\/consumerpriceindex_losangeles.htm\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">46.5%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and the price of cars and trucks increased by 13.7%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cMigration is one reason among many why the cost of everything from food to fuel is rising,\u201d said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/taylormarr\/\">Taylor Marr<\/a>. \u201cAn influx of people moving to a popular, relatively affordable place like Atlanta increases demand for housing and transportation, pushing up prices on those things and contributing to soaring prices on everything else, from food to utility bills.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cA person moving from New York City to Atlanta will probably enjoy lower housing costs in their new hometown. That means they\u2019re able to spend more on other things, which in turn means local businesses can charge higher prices,\u201d Marr continued. \u201cThe new residents are winners because the cost of living is still low compared to where they came from, even with higher inflation. A lot of locals are also winners because they have more home equity, or maybe their business has improved because they have more customers. But some locals, especially renters and people with jobs that require them to commute, are worse off due to rising rents and soaring prices on everyday expenses like gas in the car and groceries and wages that haven\u2019t kept up.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wages in Atlanta were up <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/regions\/southeast\/news-release\/employmentcostindex_atlanta.htm\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> year over year as of September 2021, compared with a 4.6% nationwide increase. With a nearly 9% inflation rate in Atlanta, locals have less disposable income than they did last year. But at the same time, Atlanta\u2019s unemployment rate was just <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/eag\/eag.ga_atlanta_msa.htm\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2.2%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> as of November, compared with the national average of 3.9%, illustrating the area\u2019s relatively strong economy.<\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"4\"><b>Popular migration destinations have relatively high inflation rates<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Q4 2021<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><b>Atlanta<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Phoenix<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Tampa<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Ranking, YoY inflation rate<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#1<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#2<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#3<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Inflation rate, YoY<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">8.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">8.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">8%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Ranking on list of metros Redfin.com users are moving into<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#10<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#2<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#5<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Net inflow* of Redfin.com users<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">4,921<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">11,047<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7,678<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Share of Redfin.com searchers from users outside the metro\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">20%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">35.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">46.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Median home-sale price\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$350,000 (+22.8% YoY)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$435,000 (+28% YoY)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$338,000 (+24.3% YoY)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Average monthly rent<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$2,016 (+12.1% YoY)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$2,107 (+26% YoY)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$2,076 (+28.1% YoY)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Most popular out-of-state origin of home searchers coming from out of town, median home-sale price &amp; average monthly rent<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New York City<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$640,000 (+8.5% YoY)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$3,718 (+34.5% YoY)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Los Angeles<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$835,000 (+14.4% YoY)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$3,394 (+9.6% YoY)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New York City<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$640,000 (+8.5% YoY)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$3,718 (+34.5% YoY)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"4\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Median sale price\/rental data is from December 2021<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">*Net inflow = how many more Redfin.com home searchers looked to move into a metro area than leave.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"4\"><b>Places people are leaving have relatively low migration rates<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Q4 2021<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><b>San Francisco<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>New York<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Los Angeles<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Ranking, YoY inflation rate<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#23<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#22<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#17<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Inflation rate, YoY<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">4%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">4.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">6%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Ranking on list of metros Redfin.com users are leaving<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#1<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#3<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#2<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Net outflow*<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">48,904<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">27,769<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">39,586<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Share of Redfin.com searchers from users outside the metro<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">23.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">27.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">19.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Median home-sale price\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$1,488,000 (+10.3% YoY)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$640,000 (+8.5% YoY)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$835,000 (+14.4% YoY)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Average monthly rent<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$3,520<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$3,718 (+34.5% YoY)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$3,394 (+9.6% YoY)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Most popular out-of-state destination, median home-sale price &amp; average monthly rent<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Seattle<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$727,000 (+16.9% YoY)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$2,233 (+20.9% YoY)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Philadelphia<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$259,000 (+7.9% YoY)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$2,724 (+13.2% YoY)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Phoenix\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$435,000 (+28% YoY)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$2,107 (+26% YoY)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"4\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Median sale price\/rental data is from December 2021<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">*Net outflow = how many more Redfin.com home searchers looked to leave a metro area than move in.<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h4>As more Americans move to affordable metros, rapidly rising prices will diminish the financial advantage of relocating<\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The financial advantage of living in places like Phoenix and Tampa is likely to fade as more and more people relocate, which will eventually slow migration.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cResidents moving away and less demand for goods and services is one reason why inflation is lower in places like New York and Los Angeles,\u201d Marr said. \u201cOver time, higher inflation in Phoenix than Los Angeles, for example, will diminish the financial advantage of living in Phoenix. The flow of people moving from traditionally expensive cities to more affordable areas will slow down because, quite simply, prices are rising so fast that those places won\u2019t be as affordable anymore.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Americans are showing significantly<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/q4-2021-housing-migration-trends\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> more interest<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in relocating than before the pandemic, with 31.2% of Redfin.com users looking to move to a different metro area in the fourth quarter, up from about 26% in 2019.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As of now, people moving to Atlanta, Phoenix and Tampa tend to come from cities where housing is more expensive, attracted to the current relatively low cost of housing and other goods and services.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For instance, the most popular out-of-town origin for Redfin.com users moving into both Atlanta and Tampa is New York City, where housing costs nearly twice as much. Los Angeles, where the median sale price is $835,000 and the average monthly rental payment is roughly $3,400, is the most popular origin for Redfin.com users moving into Phoenix ($435,000; $2,100).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>Migration and inflation have become more correlated since the pandemic started<\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As the share of Americans moving to different parts of the country has increased over the last two years, so has the relationship between migration and inflation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although there was a small correlation between popular migration destinations and high inflation rates from 2010 to 2020, the relationship has grown since the start of the pandemic. Nearly half (43%) of the variation in inflation rates between metro areas in 2021 can be explained by domestic migration. In the preceding decade, a much smaller share\u201324%\u2013of the variation could be explained by migration.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Atlanta, Phoenix and Tampa have relatively high rates of inflation\u2014between 8% and 9%\u2014and they\u2019re all popular migration destinations. That\u2019s double the inflation rates in San Francisco and New York, places people are moving away from.\u00a0 Migration into those places is one reason for rapidly rising prices of consumer goods and services.\u00a0 Because of high inflation, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":73778,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[36,20],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[124,93],"class_list":["post-73776","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing-market-news","tag-economics","tag-housing-affordability"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Prices For Consumer Goods Are Rising Quickest in America\u2019s Top Migration Destinations<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Atlanta, Phoenix and Tampa have relatively high rates of inflation\u2014between 8% and 9%\u2014and they\u2019re all popular migration destinations. 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