{"id":73947,"date":"2022-02-24T16:15:51","date_gmt":"2022-02-25T00:15:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=73947"},"modified":"2022-02-24T16:20:40","modified_gmt":"2022-02-25T00:20:40","slug":"russia-ukraine-impact-housing-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/russia-ukraine-impact-housing-market\/","title":{"rendered":"How the Russian Invasion of Ukraine Could Impact the U.S. Housing Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr says the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting economic uncertainty is likely to impact the U.S. housing market in several key ways.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On a large scale, Redfin\u2019s housing-market outlook for slowing home-price growth and plateauing sales is unchanged despite economic volatility. That\u2019s because opposing forces could simultaneously slow mortgage-rate increases and dampen demand.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Financial uncertainty has already slowed rising rates, which could prevent monthly payments from becoming less affordable for buyers.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But plummeting stock markets could make it harder for homebuyers to pull together the cash for a down payment, and could erode consumer confidence.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rising gas prices could also dampen homebuyer demand.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The conflict could also decrease Russian demand for U.S. homes.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Waking up to the news of the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2022\/02\/24\/world\/russia-attacks-ukraine\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Russian invasion<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of Ukraine was devastating, and we were saddened to see videos of missile strikes and photos of battles igniting across the country. We want to take a moment to address how the conflict on the other side of the world could impact the U.S. housing market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The escalating conflict in Europe will make the global economy weaker, resulting in opposing pressure on mortgage rates: The Federal Reserve <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2022\/01\/26\/1075598074\/federal-reserve-decision-statement-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-unemployment\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">fighting inflation<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is pushing rates up, while the conflict is pulling them down. Even with uncertainty and economic volatility, our most recent <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-2022-forecast\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">housing-market outlook<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2013which predicts slowing sales volume and price growth, as well as small mortgage-rate increases throughout the year\u2013is unchanged.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>The swift rise in mortgage rates is slowing<\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Financial uncertainty is slowing the rise in mortgage rates, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sitting at <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/pmms\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3.89%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the week ending February 24. That\u2019s down slightly from the 3.92% peak the week before, but up from roughly 3.1% at the beginning of the year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pumping the brakes on rising mortgage rates could help homebuyers by making monthly payments slightly smaller than they otherwise would have been.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>Economic uncertainty may reduce homebuyers\u2019 ability to make down payments<\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Global markets don\u2019t like conflict and investors don\u2019t like uncertainty, which means the financial markets are volatile and weakened.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That impacts the housing market because many homebuyers rely on selling stock or tapping into their 401(k) for a down payment, which is especially true as <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/newly-listed-homes-in-short-supply-down-12-in-january\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">rising home prices<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> increase the amount of cash necessary for a down payment. This will have a particularly big impact in expensive tech hubs like the Bay Area, Seattle and Austin.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Volatility in the financial markets may also erode consumer confidence around the U.S., which <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.conference-board.org\/topics\/consumer-confidence\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">already fell<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> earlier this month.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>Rising gas prices could dampen homebuyer demand<\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oil prices <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/oil-price-surge-threatens-u-s-growth-11645709556?mod=article_inline\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">spiked 7%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> initially to more than $100 a barrel, and rising energy prices is one of the biggest drivers of this year\u2019s record-setting inflation. That\u2019s relevant to the housing market in several key ways.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First, rising energy prices can prolong inflation, which means the Fed has more reason to fight inflation by increasing rates, which could further push up mortgage interest rates and slow homebuyer demand.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Second, increasing gas prices can ripple through the economy quickly. As President Biden <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/02\/22\/world\/europe\/biden-ukraine-speech-transcript.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">said<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> yesterday, \u201cdefending freedom will have costs for us.\u201d Moody\u2019s Analytics estimates <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/02\/22\/world\/europe\/biden-ukraine-speech-transcript.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">GDP growth<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> will be half a point lower than previous predictions in the third quarter of this year as a result of rising gas prices. That could lead to weakening job growth, limited pay raises and Americans having less money to spend on homes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Finally, homebuyer demand for commuter exurbs typically <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2008\/06\/25\/business\/25exurbs.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">declines<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> when oil prices spike, though that effect may be less pronounced in the era of remote and hybrid work.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>The conflict could dampen Russian homebuying in the U.S.<\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Russia\u2019s economy is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/russias-ruble-stocks-crater-as-invasion-of-ukraine-draws-sanctions-11645715129\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">suffering<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the wake of the attacks, with its stock market dropping, currency depreciating and threats of sanctions. That could impact the desire and ability of Russian homebuyers to purchase properties in the U.S.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Russians have historically purchased a fair amount of property in the U.S., specifically <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/investigates\/special-report\/usa-trump-property\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">South Florida<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>Redfin\u2019s most recent housing-market outlook is unchanged: Strong but stabilizing homebuyer demand<\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With the impact of Russia\u2019s attack on Ukraine in mind, our most recent housing-market outlook remains unchanged. The forecast is relatively conservative. It shows total home sales slowing to 6.6 million by the end of 2022, sale-price growth slowing to 5%, and continued yet smaller increases in mortgage rates throughout the year, eventually reaching about 4.3%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here are some highlights of the most recent housing-market data, which shows strong but stabilizing homebuyer demand:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin reported this week that new listings of homes for sale have been <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-demand-up-prices-record-high\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">growing<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for 4 consecutive weeks, which is evidence that January\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/newly-listed-homes-in-short-supply-down-12-in-january\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">shortfall<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in listings was temporary and buyers should soon have more to choose from.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Homebuyer demand remains strong this week, with pending sales rising this week rising for the first time since mid-January and the average home selling for 0.5% above its asking price. Fifty-eight percent of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within two weeks on the market, an all-time high.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The National Association of Realtors <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/newsroom\/existing-home-sales-surge-6-7-in-january\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">reported<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that existing home sales jumped 6.7% in January from the month before to 6.5 million. Prices rose 15.4% year over year.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Prices of newly built homes rose <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/marketsNews\/idUSL1N2UY16E?il=0\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">13.4%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from a year ago to $423,300.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mortgage applications <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/2022-press-releases\/february\/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x288963\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">dropped 10%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> week over week for the week ending February 18 to their lowest level since December 2019. However, the Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index\u2013a measure of requests for home tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents\u2013<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-demand-up-prices-record-high\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">increased<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.showingtime.com\/impact-of-coronavirus\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">touring activity<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> remains largely in line with 2021.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Affordability is a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fanniemae.com\/newsroom\/fannie-mae-news\/economic-growth-expected-slow-fed-wrangles-inflation\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">major concern<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for homebuyers, with the typical mortgage payment up <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-demand-up-prices-record-high\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">24%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from a year ago. But homes are still <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fanniemae.com\/research-and-insights\/forecast\/interest-rates-move-inflation-hits-new-high\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">slightly more affordable<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than they were in the 2000s, when loose credit restrictions led to record home sales.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We will continue to keep an eye on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on the U.S. housing market.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr says the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting economic uncertainty is likely to impact the U.S. housing market in several key ways. On a large scale, Redfin\u2019s housing-market outlook for slowing home-price growth and plateauing sales is unchanged despite economic volatility. That\u2019s because opposing forces could simultaneously slow 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He is passionate about housing and urban policy and an advocate for increased mobility and affordability. He laid the framework for our migration data and reports and diligently tracks the housing market and economy. Before Redfin, Taylor built financial market index funds for Vanguard at the University of Chicago. Taylor went to graduate school for international economics in Berlin, where he focused on behavioral causes of the global housing bubble and subsequent policy responses. Taylor\u2019s research has been featured in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and The Economist. He was also recently the President of the Seattle Economics Council and collaborates frequently with the Fed, HUD, and the Census Bureau. 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