{"id":74618,"date":"2022-07-01T12:26:52","date_gmt":"2022-07-01T19:26:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=74618"},"modified":"2023-08-02T15:44:17","modified_gmt":"2023-08-02T22:44:17","slug":"economist-faq-slowing-housing-market-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/economist-faq-slowing-housing-market-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Redfin Economist Q&#038;A: How Rising Rates and Economic Uncertainty Could Impact Home Prices, Migration, Rentals and More"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin economists answered questions about what\u2019s likely to happen in the housing market as the economy stumbles.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">High mortgage rates will likely keep homebuyer demand below the pandemic peak. Whether mortgage rates go up or down from here depends largely on whether inflation calms down or remains stubbornly high.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home prices are past their peak but probably won&#8217;t fall below pre-pandemic levels at the national level.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The cooling housing market will prop up demand for rentals in the short term. An influx of newly constructed units could help cool the rental market in the long term.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fewer people will move from one metro to another amid high rates, and pandemic boomtowns will attract fewer new residents.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin economists advise sellers that it\u2019s less risky to sell now than wait until next year.\u00a0 And buyers who are wary of high mortgage rates can consider adjustable-rate mortgages and consider refinancing opportunities in the future.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mortgage rates have doubled since the beginning of the year to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-asking-prices-decline\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">nearly 6%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, taking a toll on affordability and demand. The monthly payment on a $400,000 home rises <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/rising-mortgage-rates-purchasing-power-drops-2022\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">more than $550<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> with rates going from 3% to 6%. That increase, along with the slumping stock market and recession fears, have already pushed many buyers out of the market and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-homebuying-demand-dipped-further\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">cooled<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> the housing market from its red-hot pandemic peak.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What will happen if the Fed raises interest rates again? Are home and\/or rental prices going to decline? Should prospective sellers put their plans on hold? See the answers to those questions and other insights from Redfin\u2019s economists below.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>If\/when the Fed raises interest rates again, will mortgage rates go up?<\/h4>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Federal Reserve instituted the <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2022\/06\/15\/1105026915\/federal-reserve-interest-rates-inflation\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">biggest interest-rate hike<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in nearly three decades last month in an effort to dampen consumer demand and combat inflation.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/taylormarr\/\">Taylor Marr<\/a>, Redfin Deputy Chief Economist:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> A lot of factors have come together to push mortgage rates to their highest level in 13 years and dampen home sales. High inflation expectations and the Fed tapering their purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) both contributed to the interest-rate hikes, which have in turn pushed up mortgage rates. The bright spot for homebuyers is that the spike in mortgage rates has already happened. The current 6% mortgage rates already have future interest-rate expectations baked in. I expect interest rates to remain high and the housing market to remain relatively quiet for the next few months.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Chen Zhao, Redfin Economics Research Lead: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The consensus in the economist community is that the Fed will raise interest rates again in July by 50-75 basis points followed by three smaller hikes later this year. As long as those expectations remain unchanged, mortgage rates will probably hold steady. But if inflation remains high or another economic factor causes the Fed to respond aggressively, the Fed could increase rates <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">more <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">than expected and mortgage rates could rise again.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Is a recession coming? If so, how will that impact the housing market?<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/darylfairweather\/\">Daryl Fairweather<\/a>, Redfin Chief Economist:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The likelihood of the U.S. entering a recession late this year or in 2023 has increased over the last few months. But even if there is a recession, the housing market looks resilient. In the long run, housing is a stable investment and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/qz.com\/1170694\/housing-was-the-worlds-best-investment-over-the-last-150-years\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">less risky<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than other assets.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>TM<\/strong>: Home prices have passed their peak. A lot of homes are less valuable now than they were a few months ago\u2013but they\u2019re still more valuable than they were three years ago, and they\u2019ll likely stay that way. The impact to housing depends largely on the severity of the recession. Unemployment increasing sharply\u2013which <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/2022\/06\/03\/jobs-report-may\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">hasn\u2019t happened yet<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and isn\u2019t expected to happen\u2013would put an additional strain on demand because people will have less money. But if the recession is mild, mortgage rates could fall and housing demand wouldn\u2019t slow down further.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>CZ<\/strong>: I agree that its impact on housing depends on employment. Some people who lose their jobs would have to sell their homes, and maybe there\u2019s not a huge market of people looking to buy because they\u2019re also financially constrained. Even in a mild recession, the unemployment rate would likely tick up to 5% or 6%, a noticeable increase but not nearly as high as <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/opub\/mlr\/2018\/article\/great-recession-great-recovery.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Great Recession levels<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. It does seem like we\u2019re set up for a\u00a0 textbook recession that\u2019s fairly mild: Demand got too hot. Let\u2019s cool it down. Right now, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpmorganchase.com\/institute\/research\/household-income-spending\/household-pulse-cash-balances-through-march-2022\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">individual bank accounts<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and businesses remain fairly healthy.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>What\u2019s going to happen to home prices?<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>DF<\/strong>: Home prices will decline year over year if there\u2019s a recession, and they\u2019ll decline from their peak even if we don\u2019t enter a recession. But prices aren\u2019t likely to fall below pre-pandemic levels nationwide. We\u2019re seeing a lot of negative news, and economists are prepping for a worst-case scenario. But remember, that doesn\u2019t mean the worst is going to happen.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>TM<\/strong>: Some markets will see year-over-year price declines, and some won\u2019t. Places that had big demand booms during the pandemic like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/2287\/ID\/Boise\">Boise<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/16409\/CA\/Sacramento\">Sacramento<\/a> will likely see prices decline, while places that remain relatively affordable may not. The most expensive metro areas, and those with a lot of tech workers like the Bay Area, are also likely to see prices decline as the stock market falters.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>CZ<\/strong>: For homeowners, buyers and sellers, all that matters is what happens in your neighborhood. That\u2019s going to vary a lot from place to place. Buyers and sellers should pay attention to their local area.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>TM<\/strong>: For a lot of homeowners, the decline is only on paper. If you\u2019re not selling or refinancing your home in the next six months or year, your home being worth a little less now than it was a few months ago won\u2019t impact you. Home values typically rise over time.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>How will interest rates impact the rental market?<\/h4>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rental prices rose sharply during the pandemic. Nationwide, rents were <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/redfin-rental-report-may-2022\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">up 15%<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> year over year in May, with the median monthly asking rent surpassing $2,000 for the first time.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>TM<\/strong>: Short term, the cooling housing market will prop up demand for single-family rentals, sustaining monthly rental price growth. Long term, it could go either way. The cooling market could continue to intensify demand and push up prices. But there are roughly a million rental units being built in the U.S., and some homeowners are choosing to rent out their properties rather than sell in the uncertain market. Both of those factors could help with supply and affordability for renters in the coming months.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Will migration patterns change due to how much more expensive homeownership has suddenly become?<\/h4>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/may-2022-housing-migration-trends\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">record share<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of Redfin.com users looked to move to a different metro area during the first five months of 2022, continuing a pandemic-driven trend of relocation. A lot of homebuyers have moved from one metro area to another since the start of the pandemic\u2013often from expensive coastal areas to more affordable places like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/14240\/AZ\/Phoenix\">Phoenix<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/10201\/NV\/Las-Vegas\">Las Vegas<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/18142\/FL\/Tampa\">Tampa<\/a>\u2013largely because doing so became more feasible with remote work.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>TM<\/strong>: I expect migration to decline for the same reason <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-homebuying-demand-dipped-further\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">home sales are declining<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: When mortgage rates are up, people stay put. That\u2019s the \u201clock-in\u201d effect, where homeowners <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/homeowners-stay-put-as-mortgage-rates-rise\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">want to keep<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> their low mortgage rate. But as a <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">share<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of housing activity, migrants may still make up a larger portion of homebuyers than before the pandemic. High housing costs will also impact where people are going and change migration patterns. The pandemic boomtowns, like Austin and Boise, will be among the first to dry up because they\u2019re so much more expensive than they used to be. We\u2019ve already <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/homebuyer-migration-san-antonio\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">seen that happen<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/30818\/TX\/Austin\">Austin<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/13415\/TN\/Nashville\">Nashville<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/17150\/UT\/Salt-Lake-City\">Salt Lake City<\/a>. Places that are still relatively affordable, like San <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/16657\/TX\/San-Antonio\">Antonio<\/a>, may become more popular.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>How will interest rates and\/or a recession impact new construction?<\/h4>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The pandemic-driven buying boom intensified an existing housing shortage, drove up home prices and put a spotlight on the need for more newly constructed homes. As of the first quarter, there were <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/metros-building-new-construction-q1-2022\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">promising signs<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that homebuyers were making progress adding new supply after years of a shortfall, with building permits up\u2013especially in Sun Belt hotspots.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>TM<\/strong>: New construction of for-sale homes is often the first sector to take a hit from rising rates and economic cooldowns, so construction will continue to slow. Some projects that are already in progress may be converted from for-sale properties to rentals. One bright spot for builders is that the cost of lumber, which rose sharply during the pandemic, has actually started to decrease. Lumber prices are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2022\/05\/27\/lumber-prices-nosedive-what-to-expect-next\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">way down<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from the pandemic peak. But still, other material costs are still rising and builder sentiment is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/05\/17\/home-builder-sentiment-falls-to-2-year-low-on-declining-demand-rising-costs.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">down<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>What\u2019s your advice for sellers who regret not selling sooner because they could have earned more on their home in February or March?<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>DF<\/strong>: If you\u2019re thinking of selling your home, it\u2019s less risky to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-selling-tips-shifting-market\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">do it now<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than wait until next year. I advise pricing slightly below comparable homes in your neighborhood to get buyers\u2019 attention. I can\u2019t tell you exactly what\u2019s going to happen in the future, but I can tell you that prices are still high right now, even if they\u2019re a little lower than they were a few months ago. A year from now, we may be in a recession and prices may be lower.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>TM<\/strong>: Be realistic. A lot of home sellers are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-price-drops-hit-new-record\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">dropping asking prices<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> because they\u2019re pricing too high. That\u2019s mostly because their expectations are unrealistic: Maybe they\u2019re basing prices on one-off information, like a neighbor\u2019s home selling for $100,000 over list price a few months ago. You should be making decisions based on data, which will tell you we\u2019re past the days of getting 30 offers and selling for six figures above list price.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>What\u2019s your advice for buyers who regret not buying a home earlier this year, when their mortgage payment would have been lower?<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>CZ<\/strong>: You have options. Remember that you aren\u2019t locked into a 30-year mortgage with a 6%-plus rate. Homebuyers have the option of refinancing in the future when rates come down. I would also consider an adjustable-rate mortgage. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/adjustable-rate-mortgages-vs-fixed-2022\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Buyers can save<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> tens of thousands of dollars over a few years by taking out an ARM, which have lower interest rates, instead of a fixed-rate mortgage. Borrowers can also refinance their ARM into a fixed-rate loan down the line. ARMs are risky because it\u2019s hard to predict where rates will be when the loan resets, but they\u2019re a good option for some buyers, maybe those who aren\u2019t risk averse or those who know they won\u2019t keep the home for long.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>TM<\/strong>: If you\u2019re going to live in your home for seven years or longer, remember that not only can you change your mortgage rate by refinancing, but your home value will likely go up. You don\u2019t need to worry about year to year changes in prices. Even if the value of your new home declines next year, the housing market is very unlikely to crash. Ride the ups and downs. Housing is a stable place to invest; it\u2019s steadier than the stock market right now. And one great way for buyers to cope with high interest rates in a cooler market is to \u201c<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketmortgage.com\/learn\/mortgage-points\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">buy down<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201d the mortgage rate with higher points. That essentially means buyers pay more upfront for lower monthly interest payments.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>DF<\/strong>: Take advantage of the fact that you\u2019re <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/real-estate-bidding-wars-may-2022\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">less likely<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to encounter a bidding war than earlier in the year. You\u2019re much less likely to pay six figures over the asking price in a competitive frenzy. That could outweigh the impact of higher mortgage rates and actually save you money.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Redfin economists answered questions about what\u2019s likely to happen in the housing market as the economy stumbles.\u00a0 High mortgage rates will likely keep homebuyer demand below the pandemic peak. Whether mortgage rates go up or down from here depends largely on whether inflation calms down or remains stubbornly high.\u00a0 Home prices are past their peak [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":74619,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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