The U.S. housing market slowed considerably in the spring, with 5.5%-plus mortgage rates sending many buyers to the sidelines<\/a> and cooling competition<\/a>. With the market already slowing from its pandemic peak, we analyzed which metros are most susceptible to home-price declines if the country officially enters a recession<\/a>\u2013and which are most resilient to an economic downturn.<\/p>\n Relatively affordable northern metros\u2013several of them in the Rust Belt, such as Cleveland<\/a> and Buffalo, NY<\/a>\u2013are most resilient in the event of a recession. Prospective homebuyers in those areas can move ahead with confidence that they\u2019re less likely to see home values decline. <\/span><\/p>\n Redfin\u2019s analysis of housing markets in the 98 U.S. metros where sufficient data was available uses several housing-related indicators for each metro, including home-price volatility, average debt-to-income ratio and home-price growth. Each metro is assigned an overall risk score, relative to the other metros in the analysis: 100 represents the highest likelihood of a housing market downturn, including year-over-year home-price declines, while 0 represents the lowest likelihood. Scroll to the bottom of this report for the full methodology.<\/p>\n