{"id":75134,"date":"2022-09-28T05:00:51","date_gmt":"2022-09-28T12:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=75134"},"modified":"2022-09-27T15:11:12","modified_gmt":"2022-09-27T22:11:12","slug":"mortgage-rate-volatility-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/mortgage-rate-volatility-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Homebuyers Are Grappling With the Most Volatile Mortgage Rates in Over Three Decades"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A house hunter looking for a $500,000 home saw their potential total mortgage payment fall by $64,000 from July to August, and then jump by $118,000 from August to September.<\/span><\/i><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Seesawing mortgage rates, which have swung from nearly 6% to below 5% to above 6% in the last three months, are causing headaches for homebuyers. The typical house hunter who started searching in July and closed the deal on their new home in September saw their potential mortgage rate fluctuate by roughly half of a percentage point every four weeks. That&#8217;s the most volatile three-month period since 1987, when mortgage rates swung wildly after surging to a record high of nearly 19% earlier in the decade while the Fed worked to quell severe inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-75135\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/rate-chart-1-1024x700.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"700\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/rate-chart-1-1024x700.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/rate-chart-1-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/rate-chart-1-768x525.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/rate-chart-1.png 1295w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fast forward 35 years, and a new era of inflation and economic uncertainty has sent the average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate on another rollercoaster ride.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>For a house hunter looking to buy a $500,000 home, this could mean that:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When they started looking in early July, they expected their monthly payment to be $3,051. That equates to a total of $1.098 million over 30 years, assuming a 20% down payment and the prevailing 5.7% mortgage interest rate. Of that total payment, $435,777 is interest.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When they found their dream home in early August, they expected their monthly payment to be $2,874. That equates to a total of $1.035 million over 30 years, assuming a 20% down payment and the prevailing 4.99% mortgage rate. Of that total payment, $372,143 is interest.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When they locked in a mortgage rate for the home in late September, their final monthly payment turned out to be $3,202. That equates to a total of $1.153 million over 30 years, assuming a 20% down payment and the prevailing 6.29% mortgage rate. Of that total payment, $490,382 is interest.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In other words, the buyer\u2019s total expected payment declined by about $64,000 (5.8%) from July to August, and then shot back up by about $118,000 (11.4%) from August to September.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-75136\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/mortgage-chart-2-1024x694.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"694\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/mortgage-chart-2-1024x694.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/mortgage-chart-2-300x203.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/mortgage-chart-2-768x520.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/mortgage-chart-2.png 1327w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThe challenges homebuyers face in today\u2019s market go beyond the dwindling affordability caused by high mortgage rates and home prices,\u201d said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/taylormarr\/page\/3\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Taylor Marr<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. \u201cThe whiplash in mortgage rates between when homebuyers set their budget and when they make an offer is also making it extraordinarily difficult to plan ahead.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-75137\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/rate-chart-3-1024x707.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"707\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/rate-chart-3-1024x707.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/rate-chart-3-300x207.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/rate-chart-3-768x530.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/rate-chart-3.png 1302w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mortgage rates are seesawing because the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates as it works to tamp down sky-high inflation. The Fed last week <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/09\/21\/business\/economy\/fed-rates-inflation-powell.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">increased<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point to a range of 3% to 3.25%\u2014its third big hike in a row\u2014and predicted they\u2019ll reach 4.4% by the end of the year. While Freddie Mac\u2019s widely followed <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/pmms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">weekly data<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> now has mortgage rates at 6.29%\u2014the highest since 2008\u2014a separate daily <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage-rates\/30-year-fixed\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">gauge<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> has them as high as 7.08%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The volatility in mortgage rates will likely continue in the near term as the Fed seeks to combat inflation, but mortgage rates should fall in the next 12 to 18 months if inflation eases as expected, according to Justin Dimler of Bay Equity, Redfin\u2019s mortgage company.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThe good news for people who can still afford to buy a home and are set on making a purchase now is that they should be able to refinance to a lower rate in a year or two,\u201d said Dimler, a regional sales manager at Bay Equity in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/16163\/WA\/Seattle\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Seattle<\/a> area. \u201cI advise house hunters who qualified for a loan one or two months ago to get requalified by their mortgage adviser because the change in mortgage rates may mean they\u2019re no longer eligible to borrow as much as before.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While refinancing may become an option for homeowners in the coming months, buyers today should be aware that refinancing can come with significant <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lendingtree.com\/home\/refinance\/how-much-does-it-cost-to-refinance\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">costs<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Methodology<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin measured mortgage-rate volatility by calculating the standard deviation for a rolling 3-month window of the 4-week change in the 30-year-fixed mortgage rate. The most recent datapoint covers the 13-week period from June 30 to Sept .22, 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mortgage-rate data comes from Freddie Mac\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/pmms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Primary Mortgage Market Survey<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which measures weekly averages of the 30-year-fixed mortgage rate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For mortgage-payment calculations, we assumed a <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">20% down payment, 1.25% annual property-tax rate and a homeowner\u2019s insurance rate equal to 0.5% of the purchase price.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A house hunter looking for a $500,000 home saw their potential total mortgage payment fall by $64,000 from July to August, and then jump by $118,000 from August to September. Seesawing mortgage rates, which have swung from nearly 6% to below 5% to above 6% in the last three months, are causing headaches for homebuyers. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13346,"featured_media":75138,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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