{"id":75335,"date":"2022-10-28T05:00:28","date_gmt":"2022-10-28T12:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=75335"},"modified":"2022-10-27T15:37:49","modified_gmt":"2022-10-27T22:37:49","slug":"relocation-red-purple-counties-pandemic-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/relocation-red-purple-counties-pandemic-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Americans Flocked to Red and Purple Counties in Key Senate-Race States During the Pandemic"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pandemic-fueled migration to red and purple counties in key states has made them somewhat less white. Increasing diversity could swing some of those purple places blue in this year\u2019s Senate midterms.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But migration and shifts in racial makeup may fall short of counteracting the forces favoring Republicans this year. The Republican party is steadily gaining momentum, according to polling, and migration could favor the GOP if a lot of people moved to places that more closely matched their political views.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Purple counties in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, all key to this year\u2019s Senate elections, gained thousands of residents and became more diverse during the pandemic. Like the nation as a whole, migration to those states could favor either Democrats or Republicans.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">More residents moved into red and purple counties in states key to this year\u2019s Senate elections in 2021 than any year in the last decade.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Red (Republican-leaning) counties in key states gained roughly 340,000 residents from migration in 2021, the biggest gain since at least 2012. Purple (swing) counties in key states gained about 289,000 residents, also the largest increase in the last 10 years.\u00a0 \u201cKey\u201d states are those in which either candidate has a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2022\/10\/15\/senate-swing-state-polls-midterms-00061877\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">shot at winning<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the upcoming Senate elections: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-75336 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/unnamed-1024x614.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"614\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/unnamed-1024x614.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/unnamed-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/unnamed-768x461.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/unnamed-1536x922.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/unnamed.png 1600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The trend is similar for purple counties in non-key states, with those gaining roughly 271,000 residents. Red counties in non-key states gained about 509,000 residents.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>Migration into toss-up counties in key states increased diversity, which could help Democrats in the upcoming midterms<\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Red and purple counties in key states have become more diverse since the pandemic began, continuing a decade-long trend. Both red and purple counties in key states are less white by about one percentage point than they were in 2019, before the pandemic began.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-75337 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/unnamed-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1138\" height=\"745\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/unnamed-1.png 1138w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/unnamed-1-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/unnamed-1-1024x670.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/unnamed-1-768x503.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1138px) 100vw, 1138px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Specifically, Hispanic Americans make up a slightly larger share of the population in purple counties in key states than they did before the pandemic, with their population share increasing by half of a percentage point from 2019 to 2021. Black and Asian Americans each barely increased their population share in purple counties in key states during the pandemic, but they have both trended upward over the last decade. 2021 is the most recent year for which this data is available; diversification likely continued throughout 2022.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"7\"><b>Share of population by race, key states only,\u00a0 2019 vs. 2021<\/b><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Red = Republican-leaning; purple = swing; blue = Democratic-leaning\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Red counties: 2019<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Red counties: 2021<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Purple counties: 2019<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Purple counties: 2021<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Blue counties: 2019<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Blue counties: 2021<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">White*<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">80.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">79.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">60.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">59.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">51.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">50.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Black or African American*\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">12%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">12.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">27.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">27.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hispanic<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">8.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">20.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">21.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">13.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">14%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Asian*<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">5.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">5.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"7\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">*Non-hispanic members of race<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Some racial groups were not included, so figures in each column may not add up to 100%.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Each 12-month period ends halfway through the year. 2019 covers July 2018 through July 2019, and 2021 covers July 2020 through July 2021.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Which party wins control of the Senate is a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2022-election-forecast\/senate\/?cid=rrpromo\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">toss-up<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> as of the end of October, according to polling. This year\u2019s midterm elections are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/elections\/2022\/09\/25\/control-house-senate-2022-election-polls\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">significant<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> because they may determine the direction of the country on the economy, climate change and abortion, among other issues.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increasing diversity <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">could<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> shift votes in purple counties toward Democrats. Eighty-seven percent of Black Americans voted for President Biden in the 2020 election, as did nearly two-thirds (65%) of Latino people and 61% of Asian people, according to a 2020 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/election\/2020\/exit-polls\/president\/national-results\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CNN exit poll<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThese changes in racial makeup are small but noteworthy,\u201d said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/taylormarr\/page\/3\/\">Taylor Marr<\/a>. \u201cThe pandemic-driven wave of relocation to suburbs and rural areas\u2013which tend to lean more conservative than city centers\u2013made those toss-up places more diverse. The demographic shift isn\u2019t big enough to turn solidly red places blue, but it could move the needle in purple areas.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Marr continued: \u201cMigration from California to Phoenix <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/document\/d\/1Gp7jUlVA_1Ia-2SgVHi4hTH-Ge35O6oG75NJHsctjn8\/edit\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">helped<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Democrats win Arizona in the 2020 presidential election for the first time in 24 years, and similar migration trends could tip the Senate midterms in Democrats\u2019 favor in closely matched states like Georgia and Nevada.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>But there are strong forces that could counteract increased diversity and favor Republicans<\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Shifting demographics alone aren\u2019t necessarily enough to tip the scales in this year\u2019s midterms.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The impact of migration and increasing diversity in purple counties is somewhat offset by a parallel trend of people moving to areas that match their existing political views, according to Marr.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cAmericans sorting themselves into neighborhoods to live near people similar to them, highlighted in the book \u2018<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.thebigsort.com\/home.php\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Big Sort<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2019, has progressed over the past four decades,\u201d Marr said. \u201cWhen people relocate, they often choose an area made up of people similar to them. Some of the people, regardless of their race, who left liberal places and moved into red or purple counties were likely frustrated by local responses to the pandemic and relocated to places that <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.scheller.gatech.edu\/news\/2021\/from-la-to-boise-how-migration-has-changed-during-the-covid-19-pandemic.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">better matched<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> their lifestyles and political preferences.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A Redfin survey conducted in October supports the self-sorting trend. Just 8% of U.S. residents would be enthusiastic about moving to an area where most residents don\u2019t share their political views. Nearly half (46%) would be hesitant to move to such a place.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Other signs also point to Republican momentum in this year\u2019s Senate race. The party that holds the presidency <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/vitalstats_ch2_tbl4.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">typically fares worse<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than the opposing party in midterm elections, and today\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/10\/24\/briefing\/republican-polling-midterms.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">voters are concerned<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> about the state of the economy, which typically favors Republicans.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Additionally, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/1960778\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">studies show<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that people who recently moved are less likely than other Americans to make it to the polls.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>Purple counties in Nevada, Georgia and Arizona\u2013key to the Senate midterms\u2013gained thousands of residents and became more diverse in 2021<\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Of the 10 states likely in play for this year\u2019s Senate midterms, Nevada and Georgia are particularly <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2022-election-forecast\/senate\/?cid=rrpromo\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">closely matched<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> as of the end of October. Arizona is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/senate\/2022\/arizona\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">leaning Democrat<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, but it could feasibly go either way. Winning both Nevada and Georgia would be a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2022\/10\/22\/senate-swing-state-polls-2022-00062752\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">major boon<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for either party\u2019s chance of controlling the Senate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In Nevada, roughly 20,000 residents moved into purple counties in 2021. The state\u2019s purple counties became nearly one percentage point less white, the biggest racial shift in at least a decade. In Georgia, purple counties gained roughly 4,000 residents in 2021. Georgia\u2019s purple counties are about half a percentage point less white.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And in Arizona, purple counties soared in popularity last year, gaining nearly 80,000 residents. Arizona\u2019s purple counties became nearly three-quarters of a percentage point less white, the biggest racial shift in at least a decade.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increasing diversity in all three states could favor the Democratic Senate candidates.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Additionally, those states typically attract new residents from traditionally blue (Democrat-leaning) areas. For instance, homebuyers moving to Las Vegas from out of town mostly come from Los Angeles, the Bay Area and Seattle. Homebuyers moving into Atlanta typically come from New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But like the nation as a whole, other forces, like the state of the economy, may favor the Republican party in this year\u2019s midterms. And while some of those relocators are bringing a Democratic vote with them, others are moving somewhere that more closely aligns with their conservative values.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>Blue counties in key states lost residents, but it\u2019s not likely to impact the midterm Senate elections<\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Blue (Democrat-leaning) counties in key states followed the opposite trend as red and purple counties, <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">losing <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">about 127,000 residents from out-migration in 2021, the biggest population decline in at least the last decade. Blue counties in most key states became less white than they were before the pandemic, but not as quickly as red and purple counties.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But movement out of blue counties is more pronounced in states that <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">aren\u2019t <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">key to the Senate midterms, with those ones losing nearly 1.3 million residents. That means blue counties in key states are unlikely to lose their Democratic majorities.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>Methodology<\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This report is based on a Redfin analysis of U.S. Census county-level annual domestic migration data (note that each 12-month period ends midway through the year\u2014for instance, 2021 covers July 2020 to July 2021) and U.S. Census demographic data by race, ethnicity and age.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The political categories of blue (Democrat), red (Republican) and purple (swing) are based on 2020 election results. Red counties had at least a 20-percentage-point margin of victory for the Republican candidate, while blue counties had at least a 20 percentage point margin for the Democratic candidate. The remaining counties were classified as purple. Historical county-level data uses the most recent general election (2012, 2016, or 2020) to assign counties into a political category.\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The migration and demographics analysis does not expressly include other factors in elections like <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2022\/10\/15\/senate-swing-state-polls-midterms-00061877\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">public sentiment<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> about current events. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pandemic-fueled migration to red and purple counties in key states has made them somewhat less white. Increasing diversity could swing some of those purple places blue in this year\u2019s Senate midterms. But migration and shifts in racial makeup may fall short of counteracting the forces favoring Republicans this year. The Republican party is steadily gaining [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":75338,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[19],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[124,93],"class_list":["post-75335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-migration","tag-politics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Americans Flocked to Red and Purple Counties in Key Senate-Race States During the Pandemic<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pandemic-fueled migration to red and purple counties in key states has made them somewhat less white, which could favor Democrats in the upcoming midterms. 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