{"id":75340,"date":"2022-10-31T05:00:26","date_gmt":"2022-10-31T12:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=75340"},"modified":"2022-11-04T17:30:09","modified_gmt":"2022-11-05T00:30:09","slug":"housing-migration-trends-q3-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-migration-trends-q3-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Homebuyers Are Looking to Move to Sacramento, Miami and Other Relatively Affordable Places as High Rates, Inflation Cut Into Budgets"},"content":{"rendered":"

Surging mortgage rates and persistently high home prices are motivating many of the buyers who remain in the market to relocate to more affordable areas, but migration may slow as the economy continues to soften.<\/h2>\n

Nearly one-quarter (24.2%) of homebuyers nationwide looked to move to a different metro area in the third quarter, a record high. That\u2019s up from 23.3% in the second quarter, 21.6% a year ago and about 18% before the pandemic.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Redfin has refined the methodology of its migration analysis, which measures the share of Redfin.com users looking to relocate from one metro area to another. Scroll to the bottom of this report for more details on our updated methodology.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Affordability is a priority for homebuyers as mortgage rates surpass 7%<\/a>, more than doubling in the last year. Those high rates, along with inflation<\/a> and still-high home prices, are discouraging<\/a> many prospective homebuyers from moving. But those who are <\/i>still in the market are likely to prioritize living somewhere relatively affordable, like Sacramento<\/a> or Las Vegas<\/a>. The uptick in remote work\u2013more than one-third<\/a> of American job-holders can work from home full time\u2013means relocating for lower home prices is feasible.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWith a recession looming and household expenses high, many people can\u2019t afford to buy a home in an expensive area and\/or want to save money in case of an emergency, which makes relocating somewhere more affordable an attractive option,\u201d said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao. \u201cMigration will likely slow in the coming months because the softening labor market and job losses<\/a> will push more people to stay put or move in with family, though some may need to relocate for new employment opportunities. Plus, many remote workers who wanted to relocate already have.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sacramento, Miami and Las Vegas are most popular spots for out-of-town homebuyers<\/h3>\n

Sacramento<\/a> was the most popular destination for Redfin.com users looking to relocate, followed by Miami<\/a>, Las Vegas<\/a>, San Diego<\/a> and Tampa<\/a>. Popularity is determined by net inflow, which is the number of people looking to move into a metro minus the number of people looking to leave.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Sunny, relatively affordable areas are typically the most popular relocation destinations. Take Sacramento<\/a>, for example. While its $560,000 median sale price is higher than the national average, it\u2019s a fraction of the $1.5 million median price in nearby San Francisco<\/a>, the most common origin of newcomers to Sacramento<\/a>. New York<\/a>, where the typical home costs $680,000, is the most common origin for buyers moving to Miami<\/a> ($475,000 median sale price). Nine of the 10 most popular destinations have more affordable home prices than their top origins (Cape Coral, FL<\/a>, with Chicago<\/a> as the most common origin, is the exception).\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cMore than half of my buyers in Sacramento<\/a> are from outside the area,\u201d said local Redfin agent Samantha Rahman<\/a>. \u201cThey\u2019re mostly remote workers coming from the Bay Area who may need to commute to the office a few times a month but are saving significantly on housing costs. It makes even more sense to relocate to a more affordable region now than it did when mortgage rates were low, as lower-priced homes offset some of the expense of high rates and rack up less interest.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Moving Into, by Net Inflow<\/h3>\n

Net inflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to move into a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to leave<\/i>
\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
Rank<\/b><\/th>Metro<\/b>*<\/b><\/th>Net Inflow<\/b><\/th>Top Origin<\/b><\/th>Top Out-of-State Origin<\/b><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>Sacramento, CA<\/a><\/td>8,700<\/td>San Francisco, CA<\/a><\/td>Chicago, IL<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>Miami, FL<\/a><\/td>8,000<\/td>New York, NY<\/a><\/td>New York, NY<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>Las Vegas, NV<\/a><\/td>7,000<\/td>Los Angeles, CA<\/a><\/td>Los Angeles, CA<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>San Diego, CA<\/a><\/td>6,800<\/td>Los Angeles, CA<\/a><\/td>Chicago, IL<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>Tampa, FL<\/a><\/td>6,700<\/td>New York, NY<\/a><\/td>New York, NY<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>Phoenix, AZ<\/a><\/td>5,200<\/td>Los Angeles, CA<\/a><\/td>Los Angeles, CA<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>Cape Coral, FL<\/a><\/td>5,200<\/td>Chicago, IL<\/a><\/td>Chicago, IL<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>North Port<\/a>-Sarasota, FL<\/a><\/td>5,200<\/td>New York, NY<\/a><\/td>New York, NY<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>Dallas, TX<\/a><\/td>4,100<\/td>Los Angeles, CA<\/a><\/td>Los Angeles, CA<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>Portland, ME<\/a><\/td>3,300<\/td>Boston, MA<\/a><\/td>Boston, MA<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
\n*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in Q3 2022<\/em><\/p>\n

People are leaving San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York<\/h3>\n

Homebuyers typically look to leave expensive coastal job centers, and the third quarter was no exception.\u00a0<\/p>\n

More homebuyers looked to leave San Francisco<\/a> than any other major metro, followed by Los Angeles<\/a>, New York<\/a>, Washington, D.C.<\/a> and Boston<\/a>. That\u2019s determined by net outflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com users looked to leave an area than move in.<\/p>\n

Homebuyers leaving New York<\/a> are most commonly searching in Miami<\/a>, where the weather is warmer and homes are less expensive. And buyers looking to depart Boston<\/a> are flocking to Portland, ME<\/a>, where the typical home costs roughly $200,000 less.<\/p>\n

Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Leaving, by Net Outflow<\/h3>\n

Net outflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to leave a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to move in<\/i>
\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
Rank<\/b><\/th>Metro<\/b>*<\/b><\/th>Net Outflow<\/b><\/th>Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere<\/b><\/th>Top Destination<\/b><\/th>Top Out-of-State Destination<\/b><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>San Francisco, CA<\/a><\/td>37,800<\/td>24%<\/td>Sacramento, CA<\/a><\/td>Seattle, WA<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>Los Angeles, CA<\/a><\/td>33,600<\/td>20%<\/td>San Diego, CA<\/a><\/td>Las Vegas, NV<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>New York, NY<\/a><\/td>23,600<\/td>27%<\/td>Miami, FL<\/a><\/td>Miami, FL<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>Washington, DC<\/a><\/td>18,900<\/td>18%<\/td>Salisbury, MD<\/a><\/td>Salisbury, MD<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>Boston, MA<\/a><\/td>9,300<\/td>19%<\/td>Portland, ME<\/a><\/td>Portland, ME<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>Chicago, IL<\/a><\/td>5,700<\/td>16%<\/td>Milwaukee, WI<\/a><\/td>Milwaukee, WI<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>Detroit, MI<\/a><\/td>4,600<\/td>32%<\/td>Cleveland, OH<\/a><\/td>Cleveland, OH<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>Denver, CO<\/a><\/td>3,700<\/td>31%<\/td>Chicago, IL<\/a><\/td>Chicago, IL<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>Seattle, WA<\/a><\/td>3,500<\/td>17%<\/td>Phoenix, AZ<\/a><\/td>Phoenix, AZ<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>Minneapolis, MN<\/a><\/td>2,200<\/td>29%<\/td>Chicago, IL<\/a><\/td>Chicago, IL<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
\n*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in Q3 2022<\/em><\/p>\n
\n

Methodology<\/h3>\n

Our migration analysis is based on about two million Redfin.com users who viewed for-sale homes online across more than 100 metro areas in the third quarter. We have recast our migration methodology to more accurately account for homebuyers searching outside their home metro in multiple other metros. That\u2019s why the historical shares in this report are lower than in past reports. The overall national trend remains the same: a steady uptick in the share of Redfin.com users looking to relocate over the last five years, with much of the increase occurring since the pandemic began. Metro-level trends are also largely unchanged with the methodology adjustment; the most popular destinations are typically relatively affordable Sun Belt metros.<\/p>\n

To measure the share of homebuyers looking to relocate from one metro to another, we calculate the portion of overall home searchers that are migrants.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A Redfin.com user counts as a migrant if they viewed at least 10 for-sale homes in the third quarter and at least one of those homes was outside their home metro area. For instance, if a Redfin.com user based in Seattle<\/a> views 10 homes in a three-month period and all of them are in Phoenix<\/a>, that user counts as a full migrant to Phoenix<\/a>. If a user based in Seattle<\/a> views 10 homes in a three-month period and five are in Phoenix<\/a> but five are in San Diego<\/a>, that user counts as half of a migrant to Phoenix<\/a> and half of a migrant to San Diego<\/a>. If a user based in Seattle<\/a> views 10 homes in a three-month period, nine in Seattle<\/a> and one in Phoenix<\/a>, that user counts as one-tenth of a migrant to Phoenix<\/a>. Our previous methodology would have counted a user who searched in both Phoenix<\/a> and San Diego<\/a> as two separate migrants, while the refined version used in this report counts that user as one migrant and divides their activity between Phoenix<\/a> and San Diego<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The analysis includes combined statistical areas with at least 500 Redfin.com users based in that region and at least 500 users searching for homes in that region. For instance, a user based in Seattle<\/a> searching for a home in Phoenix<\/a> counts toward the first condition, a user based in Phoenix<\/a> searching for a home in Seattle<\/a> counts toward the second condition, and a user based in Seattle<\/a> searching for a home in Seattle<\/a> counts toward both. Redfin\u2019s migration data goes back to 2017.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Surging mortgage rates and persistently high home prices are motivating many of the buyers who remain in the market to relocate to more affordable areas, but migration may slow as the economy continues to soften. Nearly one-quarter (24.2%) of homebuyers nationwide looked to move to a different metro area in the third quarter, a record […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":75343,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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