{"id":75445,"date":"2022-11-21T09:15:07","date_gmt":"2022-11-21T17:15:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=75445"},"modified":"2022-12-16T14:56:57","modified_gmt":"2022-12-16T22:56:57","slug":"housing-market-tracker-october-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-tracker-october-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Pending Home Sales Post Record Drop in October as Deal Cancellations, Price Cuts Hit Record High"},"content":{"rendered":"

The historic slowdown may ease in the coming months if inflation continues to cool.<\/span><\/i><\/h2>\n

Pending home sales fell the most on record in October and deal cancellations and price cuts hit record highs as buyers were spooked by the biggest mortgage-rate jump in over four decades.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pending sales dropped 32.1% year over year last month, the largest decline since at least 2013, when Redfin\u2019s records begin. Nearly 60,000 <\/span>home-purchase agreements fell through, equal to a record 17.9% of homes that went under contract. Meanwhile, almost <\/span>one-quarter (23.9%) of homes for sale experienced a price drop, double the rate of a year earlier.<\/span><\/p>\n

Surging mortgage rates also caused would-be sellers to stay put due to the <\/span>lock-in effect<\/span><\/a>. The average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate was 6.9% in October, up 3.83 percentage points from 3.07% one year earlier\u2014the largest year-over-year increase during any month since 1981. That contributed to a 24% year-over-year drop in new listings, the steepest decrease on record aside from April 2020, when the onset of the pandemic brought the housing market to a near halt.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe Fed\u2019s actions to curb inflation are causing the housing market to slow at a pace not seen since the financial crisis,\u201d said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao. \u201cThere are already early but promising signs that inflation is cooling, which caused mortgage rates to <\/span>drop<\/span><\/a> last week. If that progress continues, buyers who recently backed out of deals may return to the market and sellers may be less inclined to slash their prices.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, sale prices have room to fall<\/span>. The median U.S. home sale price declined 1.4% month over month\u2014the largest slowdown during any October since 2012\u2014but was up 4.9% from a year earlier.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prices may ease as listings linger on the market and competition slows. Homes that sold in October were on the market for a median of 35 days, up from 21 days a year earlier, and less than half (44.6%) of home offers written by Redfin agents faced competition. That compares with more than two-thirds (67.3%) in October 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

October Highlights<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nOctober 2022<\/b><\/td>\nMonth-Over-Month Change<\/b><\/td>\nYear-Over-Year Change<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median sale price<\/span><\/td>\n$397,549<\/span><\/td>\n-1.4%<\/span><\/td>\n4.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Homes sold, seasonally-adjusted<\/span><\/td>\n464,017<\/span><\/td>\n-3.4%<\/span><\/td>\n-26.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pending home sales, seasonally-adjusted<\/span><\/td>\n414,492<\/span><\/td>\n-5.9%<\/span><\/td>\n-32.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings, seasonally-adjusted<\/span><\/td>\n511,459<\/span><\/td>\n-5.4%<\/span><\/td>\n-24%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
All homes for sale, seasonally-adjusted<\/span><\/td>\n1,555,384<\/span><\/td>\n-1.2%<\/span><\/td>\n4.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Months of supply<\/span><\/td>\n2.7<\/span><\/td>\n0.3<\/span><\/td>\n1.2<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median days on market<\/span><\/td>\n35<\/span><\/td>\n3<\/span><\/td>\n14<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of for-sale homes with a price drop<\/span><\/td>\n23.9%<\/span><\/td>\n2.1 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n11.9 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes sold above final list price<\/span><\/td>\n28.8%<\/span><\/td>\n-3.2 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n-17 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average sale-to-final-list-price ratio<\/span><\/td>\n98.9%<\/span><\/td>\n-0.4 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n-1.9 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of home offers written by Redfin agents that faced competition (seasonally adjusted)<\/span><\/td>\n44.6%<\/span><\/td>\n-2.4 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n-22.7 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pending sales that fell out of contract, as % of overall pending sales<\/span><\/td>\n17.9%<\/span><\/td>\n1.3 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n5.7 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n6.9%<\/span><\/td>\n0.79 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n3.83 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Note: Data is subject to revision<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Metro-Level Highlights<\/span><\/h3>\n

Bulleted rankings below came from a list of the 93 U.S. metro areas that have populations of at least 750,000, with the exception of rankings of bidding-war rates and home-purchase cancellations. The bidding-wars ranking came from a list of 36 metros\u2014those that had<\/span><\/i> a monthly average of at least 50 offers submitted by Redfin agents from March 2021 to March 2022. The home-purchase cancellations ranking came from a list of the 50 most populous metro areas. All changes are year over year unless otherwise noted.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

For more metro-level trends, head to the Redfin <\/span><\/i>Data Center<\/span><\/i><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Prices<\/span><\/h4>\n