{"id":75574,"date":"2022-12-19T05:00:40","date_gmt":"2022-12-19T13:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=75574"},"modified":"2022-12-16T14:17:08","modified_gmt":"2022-12-16T22:17:08","slug":"housing-migration-trends-november-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-migration-trends-november-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Homebuyers Are Flocking to the Sun Belt, Attracted to Relatively Affordable Home Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"

The share of Redfin.com users moving away from their home metro is near its record high as 6%-plus mortgage rates and inflation cut into homebuying budgets. Places like Las Vegas and parts of Florida are especially popular.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Nationwide, 24.1% of homebuyers looked to move to a different metro during the three months ending in November, on par with the record high set in the summer and up from around 18% before the pandemic.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

High mortgage rates and the uncertain economy are discouraging Americans from moving, with home sales down <\/span>more than 30%<\/span><\/a> from a year ago. But among the people who <\/span>are <\/span><\/i>still buying homes, one in four are searching outside their hometown, typically in relatively affordable areas. That\u2019s largely because some remote workers are still relocating to more affordable parts of the country as high rates and inflation cut into their budgets.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sacramento<\/a>, the most popular migration destination in November, is an apt example. The Bay Area is the most common origin for homebuyers relocating to Sacramento. Though prices in the San Francisco<\/a> Bay Area have <\/span>started falling<\/span><\/a>, the typical home still costs three times more than it does in Sacramento: Roughly $1.5 million versus $540,000. For a remote worker moving from the Bay Area to Sacramento, the much less expensive home prices help offset 6%-plus mortgage rates.<\/span><\/p>\n

The flow of out-of-town buyers into popular destinations is slowing<\/h3>\n

Although the share of relocators remains essentially at its record high, the <\/span>number <\/span><\/i>of people moving to even the most popular destinations is falling amid high rates and economic woes. Fewer homebuyers looked to move to each of the 10 most popular migration destinations in November than a month earlier. Las Vegas<\/a>, for instance, had a net inflow of 6,400 in November, down from 7,100 in October and 8,700 in September. Miami<\/a> had a net inflow of 5,900, down from 6,700 in October and 8,000 in September.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cLas Vegas is still popular with out-of-town buyers, especially from coastal places like San Francisco, Los Angeles<\/a> and Seattle<\/a> who are seeking out lower home prices. But migration is slowing as the market cools,\u201d said Las Vegas Redfin agent Tzahi Arbeli<\/a>. \u201cThat\u2019s partly because people are hoping for rates to come down before they move, and it\u2019s also because people are worried about buying a home that may go down in value. From my point of view, there are a few upsides to buying now. There\u2019s more to choose from than there used to be, sellers are willing to negotiate and prices have dropped from their peak.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Sun Belt locations are popular with homebuyers<\/h3>\n

After Sacramento, Las Vegas was the most popular migration destination in November. It\u2019s followed by Miami, Tampa<\/a> and San Diego<\/a>. Popularity is determined by net inflow, which is the number of people looking to move into a metro minus the number of people looking to leave.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Half of the 10 most popular destinations are in Florida, despite Hurricane Ian <\/span>wreaking havoc<\/span><\/a> in the state in late September. Nearly all of them are in the Sun Belt, with warm and sunny weather. The typical home in eight of the top 10 destinations is more affordable than in the most common origin for homebuyers moving in, and seven of the top 10 are places with no state income tax.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Moving Into, by Net Inflow\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

Net inflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to move into a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to leave<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Rank<\/b><\/td>\nMetro<\/b>*<\/b><\/td>\nNet Inflow<\/b><\/td>\nTop Origin<\/b><\/td>\nTop Out-of-State Origin<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

1<\/span><\/td>\nSacramento, CA<\/span><\/td>\n7,000<\/span><\/td>\nSan Francisco, CA<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/span><\/td>\nLas Vegas, NV<\/span><\/td>\n6,400<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/span><\/td>\nMiami, FL<\/span><\/td>\n5,900<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/span><\/td>\nTampa, FL<\/span><\/td>\n4,900<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/span><\/td>\nSan Diego, CA<\/span><\/td>\n4,500<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/span><\/td>\nPhoenix, AZ<\/span><\/td>\n4,300<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/span><\/td>\nCape Coral, FL<\/span><\/td>\n4,000<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/span><\/td>\nNorth Port-Sarasota, FL<\/span><\/td>\n3,700<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/span><\/td>\nDallas, TX<\/span><\/td>\n3,600<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/span><\/td>\nOrlando, FL<\/span><\/td>\n3,300<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in September-November 2022<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Homebuyers are leaving expensive job centers<\/h3>\n

More homebuyers looked to leave San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York<\/a>, Washington, D.C.<\/a> and Chicago<\/a> than any other metro. That\u2019s determined by net outflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com users looked to leave an area than move in.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The places on this list haven\u2019t changed much from previous months, as homebuyers typically leave expensive coastal areas in favor of more affordable inland places.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But the number of homebuyers looking to leave all 10 metros has declined from last month, reflecting the slow housing market and Americans\u2019 general disinterest in moving while mortgage rates stay above 6%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Leaving, by Net Outflow<\/b><\/p>\n

Net outflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to leave a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to move in<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Rank<\/b><\/td>\nMetro<\/b>*<\/b><\/td>\nNet Outflow<\/b><\/td>\nPortion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere<\/b><\/td>\nTop Destination<\/b><\/td>\nTop Out-of-State Destination<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

1<\/span><\/td>\nSan Francisco, CA<\/span><\/td>\n32,200<\/span><\/td>\n24%<\/span><\/td>\nSacramento, CA<\/span><\/td>\nSeattle, WA<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\n30,400<\/span><\/td>\n20%<\/span><\/td>\nSan Diego, CA<\/span><\/td>\nLas Vegas, NV<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\n20,800<\/span><\/td>\n27%<\/span><\/td>\nMiami, FL<\/span><\/td>\nMiami, FL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/span><\/td>\nWashington, D.C.<\/span><\/td>\n16,200<\/span><\/td>\n18%<\/span><\/td>\nVirginia Beach, VA<\/span><\/td>\nVirginia Beach, VA<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\n7,200<\/span><\/td>\n17%<\/span><\/td>\nMilwaukee, WI<\/span><\/td>\nMilwaukee, WI<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/span><\/td>\nBoston, MA<\/span><\/td>\n6,000<\/span><\/td>\n18%<\/span><\/td>\nPortland, ME<\/span><\/td>\nPortland, ME<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/span><\/td>\nDetroit, MI<\/span><\/td>\n3,400<\/span><\/td>\n30%<\/span><\/td>\nCleveland, OH<\/span><\/td>\nCleveland, OH<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/span><\/td>\nDenver, CO<\/span><\/td>\n3,300<\/span><\/td>\n31%<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/span><\/td>\nHartford, CT<\/span><\/td>\n1,400<\/span><\/td>\n70%<\/span><\/td>\nBoston, MA<\/span><\/td>\nBoston, MA<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/span><\/td>\nSeattle, WA<\/span><\/td>\n1,400<\/span><\/td>\n17%<\/span><\/td>\nPhoenix, AZ<\/span><\/td>\nPhoenix, AZ<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in September-November 2022<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Below, we\u2019ve included a map of the most popular destinations for Redfin.com users who are leaving the <\/span>San Francisco<\/span><\/a> metro. To view similar maps for the metros in this report and other metros, please visit the area\u2019s <\/span>Redfin housing market page<\/span><\/a> and scroll down to the \u201cmigration\u201d section.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Methodology<\/h3>\n

Our migration analysis is based on about two million Redfin.com users who viewed for-sale homes online across more than 100 metro areas from September 2022 to November 2022. When we say \u201cNovember\u201d in this report, we\u2019re referring to the three months ending in November. To measure the share of homebuyers looking to relocate from one metro to another, we calculate the portion of overall home searchers that are migrants.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A Redfin.com user counts as a migrant if they viewed at least 10 for-sale homes in the third quarter and at least one of those homes was outside their home metro area. For instance, if a Redfin.com user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> views 10 homes in a three-month period and all of them are in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a>, that user counts as a full migrant to <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a>. If a user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> views 10 homes in a three-month period and five are in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a> but five are in <\/span>San Diego<\/span><\/a>, that user counts as half of a migrant to <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a> and half of a migrant to <\/span>San Diego<\/span><\/a>. If a user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> views 10 homes in a three-month period, nine in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> and one in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a>, that user counts as one-tenth of a migrant to <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The analysis includes combined statistical areas with at least 500 Redfin.com users based in that region and at least 500 users searching for homes in that region. For instance, a user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> searching for a home in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a> counts toward the first condition, a user based in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a> searching for a home in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> counts toward the second condition, and a user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> searching for a home in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> counts toward both. Redfin\u2019s migration data goes back to 2017.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The share of Redfin.com users moving away from their home metro is near its record high as 6%-plus mortgage rates and inflation cut into homebuying budgets. Places like Las Vegas and parts of Florida are especially popular. Nationwide, 24.1% of homebuyers looked to move to a different metro during the three months ending in November, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":75577,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[20,21],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[124],"class_list":["post-75574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-migration","tag-housing-affordability","tag-migration"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHomebuyers Are Flocking to the Sun Belt, Attracted to Relatively Affordable Home Prices<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The share of Redfin.com users moving away from their home metro is near its record high as 6%-plus mortgage rates and inflation cut into homebuying budgets. 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