{"id":75603,"date":"2022-12-22T05:00:59","date_gmt":"2022-12-22T13:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=75603"},"modified":"2022-12-21T15:14:28","modified_gmt":"2022-12-21T23:14:28","slug":"housing-market-tracker-november-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-tracker-november-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Home Sales Slumped 35% in November, the Biggest Decline on Record"},"content":{"rendered":"

A surge in mortgage rates in early November caused sales and prices to slow, but there are early signs that demand may be creeping back as rates reverse course.<\/span><\/i><\/h2>\n

Home sales fell 35.1% year over year in November on a seasonally-adjusted basis\u2014the largest decline in Redfin\u2019s records that date back to 2012.<\/span> Home-price growth also lost momentum. The median U.S. home-sale price rose just 2.6% from a year earlier, the smallest gain since May 2020, when the onset of the coronavirus pandemic brought the housing market to a near halt.<\/span><\/p>\n

The housing market continued to cool in November as elevated housing costs kept buyers and sellers on the sidelines. New listings slumped 28.4% year over year, the biggest drop on record aside from April 2020. Despite the decrease in listings, overall supply rose 4.6% from a year earlier\u2014a sign that homes lingered on the market as demand ebbed. Indeed, the typical for-sale home took 37 days to go under contract, up from 23 days a year earlier.<\/span><\/p>\n

But there are early signs that demand may be starting to creep back as mortgage rates fall. There was a slight downtick in the portion of home-purchase agreements that were canceled in November, and mortgage applications and Redfin\u2019s Homebuyer Demand Index have both been <\/span>on the rise<\/span><\/a>. Still, these early indicators haven\u2019t translated into more home sales.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mortgage rates <\/span>reversed<\/span><\/a> course in late November, dropping below 6.5% after soaring to the highest level in roughly two decades (7.08%) earlier in the month, but they\u2019re still twice as high as they were a year ago. The recent decline was driven by signs of easing inflation, which this week prompted the Federal Reserve to <\/span>slow<\/span><\/a> the pace of interest-rate hikes. But the Fed signaled that it has more work to do to quell inflation and isn\u2019t yet finished raising rates.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe worst of inflation is likely in the rearview mirror,\u201d said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao. \u201cWe do anticipate that mortgage rates will decline slightly further in 2023 as the Fed\u2019s actions continue to bring inflation down, which should ultimately bring more homebuyers back to the market. Still, we have a ways to go until we reach recovery mode, and we may see sales continue to ebb in the short term.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Zhao continued: \u201cProspective buyers in places like San Francisco and Austin, where prices have already fallen from a year ago, should pay close attention to a potential turnaround; it could be the time to take action as demand and competitive offers could pick up in the coming months.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

November Highlights<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nNovember 2022<\/b><\/td>\nMonth-Over-Month Change<\/b><\/td>\nYear-Over-Year Change<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median sale price<\/span><\/td>\n$393,682<\/span><\/td>\n-1.5%<\/span><\/td>\n2.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Homes sold, seasonally-adjusted<\/span><\/td>\n420,213<\/span><\/td>\n-5.5%<\/span><\/td>\n-35.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pending home sales, seasonally-adjusted<\/span><\/td>\n388,608<\/span><\/td>\n-2.8%<\/span><\/td>\n-35.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings, seasonally-adjusted<\/span><\/td>\n467,945<\/span><\/td>\n-4.3%<\/span><\/td>\n-28.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
All homes for sale, seasonally-adjusted<\/span><\/td>\n1,511,555<\/span><\/td>\n0.6%<\/span><\/td>\n4.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Months of supply<\/span><\/td>\n2.7<\/span><\/td>\n0.1<\/span><\/td>\n1.3<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median days on market<\/span><\/td>\n37<\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n15<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of for-sale homes with a price drop<\/span><\/td>\n20.8%<\/span><\/td>\n-1.8 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n10.8 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes sold above final list price<\/span><\/td>\n26.4%<\/span><\/td>\n-2.7 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n-18 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average sale-to-final-list-price ratio<\/span><\/td>\n98.5%<\/span><\/td>\n-0.4 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n-2.2 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of home offers written by Redfin agents that faced competition (seasonally adjusted)<\/span><\/td>\n40.4%<\/span><\/td>\n-3.5 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n-26.9 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pending sales that fell out of contract, as % of overall pending sales<\/span><\/td>\n16.8%<\/span><\/td>\n-0.4 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n4.7 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/span><\/td>\n6.81%<\/span><\/td>\n-0.09 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n3.74 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Note: Data is subject to revision<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Metro-Level Highlights: Pandemic Boomtowns, Pricey Coastal Cities Drove Market Slowdown<\/span><\/h3>\n

Data in the bullets below came from a list of the 90 U.S. metro areas with populations of at least 750,000, unless otherwise noted. <\/span><\/i>For national and metro-level charts and trends, head to the Redfin <\/span><\/i>Data Center<\/span><\/i><\/a>. <\/span><\/i>Refer to our <\/span><\/i>metrics definition page<\/span><\/i><\/a> for explanations of metrics used in this report.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n