{"id":75703,"date":"2023-01-23T10:10:35","date_gmt":"2023-01-23T18:10:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=75703"},"modified":"2023-03-02T17:29:20","modified_gmt":"2023-03-03T01:29:20","slug":"housing-migration-trends-q4-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-migration-trends-q4-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"A Record 25% of Home Searchers Looked to Move to a New Metro at the End of 2022 as High Housing Costs Drove Relocation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Economic uncertainty and 6%-plus mortgage rates caused fewer Americans to purchase homes in the fourth quarter. But those who did buy relocated at an unprecedented rate due to remote work and the allure of more affordable options.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

A record one-quarter (24.6%) of Redfin.com users looked to move to a different metro area<\/a> in the fourth quarter as remote work allowed the few Americans buying homes to seek out less expensive areas amid an ongoing housing affordability crunch. That\u2019s up from 22.1% a year earlier and around 18% before the pandemic.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The people who are buying homes are relocating at an unprecedented rate because elevated <\/span>mortgage rates<\/span><\/a>, still-high home prices and economic uncertainty are driving many of them\u2013especially remote workers\u2013to more affordable areas.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But those same factors also caused the overall pool of homebuyers to shrink, with pending home sales down more than 30% from a year ago at the end of 2022<\/a>.\u00a0Many homeowners are also reluctant to move because they don\u2019t want to <\/span>give up<\/span><\/a> their relatively low mortgage rate. Eight of the top 10 migration destinations in the fourth quarter all had fewer homebuyers looking to move in than a year earlier. Sacramento<\/a> and Las Vegas<\/a>, the most popular destinations, both had net inflows of around 5,500 in the fourth quarter, down from roughly 6,500 a year earlier. Phoenix, the fifth most popular destination, had a net inflow of about 4,000 in the fourth quarter, down from more 8,000. Net inflow is the number of people looking to move into a metro minus the number of people looking to leave.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cPhoenix<\/a> is typically a huge vacation-home market, but I\u2019ve seen a big decline in people purchasing second homes and investment properties lately. There are still out-of-towners buying homes and moving here full time, though that has also slowed down over the last several months as mortgage rates have risen,\u201d said local Redfin agent Heather Mahmood-Corley<\/a>. \u201cStill, the cost of living<\/a> in Phoenix is low compared to places like the Bay Area, Seattle<\/a>, Denver<\/a> and parts of the East Coast, where many out-of-towners are coming from. I helped one client buy a home in Washington State in 2016, and it has doubled in value. She sold that home last year and used the proceeds to buy a much bigger, nicer house in Phoenix.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sun Belt cities are the most popular destinations for relocators<\/h3>\n

After Sacramento and Las Vegas, Miami<\/a> was the most popular migration destination in the fourth quarter. It\u2019s followed by Tampa<\/a> and Phoenix. Popularity is determined by net inflow.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Although home prices have soared in popular destinations like Las Vegas<\/a> and Phoenix since the start of the pandemic as remote workers have moved in, they\u2019re still far more affordable than places like the Bay Area or New York.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The typical home in eight of the 10 most popular destinations is less expensive than the typical home in the most common origin. For example, Sacramento\u2019s $540,000 median sale price is significantly cheaper than $1.4 million in San Francisco, the top origin of out-of-towners coming to Sacramento. (Cape Coral, FL<\/a> and North Port<\/a>–Sarasota, FL<\/a>, with Chicago<\/a> as the top origin, are the exceptions). Warm weather is also attractive to relocators; all 10 of the top destinations are known for their sunny climates and five are in Florida.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Moving Into, by Net Inflow\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

Net inflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to move into a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to leave<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Rank<\/b><\/td>\nMetro<\/b>*<\/b><\/td>\nNet Inflow, Q4 2022<\/b><\/td>\nNet Inflow, Q4 2021<\/b><\/td>\nTop Origin<\/b><\/td>\nTop Out-of-State Origin<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

1<\/span><\/td>\nSacramento, CA<\/span><\/td>\n5,700<\/span><\/td>\n6,600<\/span><\/td>\nSan Francisco, CA<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/span><\/td>\nLas Vegas, NV<\/span><\/td>\n5,400<\/span><\/td>\n6,300<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/span><\/td>\nMiami, FL<\/span><\/td>\n5,300<\/span><\/td>\n9,500<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/span><\/td>\nTampa, FL<\/span><\/td>\n4,000<\/span><\/td>\n6,500<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/span><\/td>\nPhoenix, AZ<\/span><\/td>\n4,000<\/span><\/td>\n8,400<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/span><\/td>\nDallas, TX<\/span><\/td>\n3,400<\/span><\/td>\n6,700<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/span><\/td>\nCape Coral, FL<\/span><\/td>\n3,300<\/span><\/td>\n4,700<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/span><\/td>\nNorth Port-Sarasota, FL<\/span><\/td>\n2,900<\/span><\/td>\n4,500<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/span><\/td>\nHouston, TX<\/span><\/td>\n2,800<\/span><\/td>\n2,100<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/span><\/td>\nOrlando, FL<\/span><\/td>\n2,800<\/span><\/td>\n1,000<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in October-December 2022<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Homebuyers are leaving expensive coastal job centers<\/h3>\n

More homebuyers looked to leave San Francisco<\/a> than any other metro in the fourth quarter, followed by Los Angeles<\/a> and New York<\/a>. The ranking of places homebuyers are moving away from is determined by net outflow, a measure of how many more people are looking to leave a metro than move in.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington, D.C.<\/a> and Chicago<\/a> round out the top five, followed by several other large northern job centers. Those are typically the places homebuyers looked to leave, as they tend to be expensive.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

There are fewer homebuyers leaving most of those places than a year earlier, reflecting the slow housing market. The net outflow from seven of the top 10 metros was smaller in the fourth quarter than a year earlier.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Leaving, by Net Outflow<\/b><\/p>\n

Net outflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to leave a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to move in<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Rank<\/b><\/td>\nMetro<\/b>*<\/b><\/td>\nNet Outflow, Q4 2022<\/b><\/td>\nNet Outflow, Q4 2021<\/b><\/td>\nPortion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere<\/b><\/td>\nTop Destination<\/b><\/td>\nTop Out-of-State Destination<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

1<\/span><\/td>\nSan Francisco, CA<\/span><\/td>\n26,900<\/span><\/td>\n40,000<\/span><\/td>\n24%<\/span><\/td>\nSacramento, CA<\/span><\/td>\nSeattle, WA<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\n23,100<\/span><\/td>\n32,000<\/span><\/td>\n20%<\/span><\/td>\nSan Diego, CA<\/span><\/td>\nLas Vegas, NV<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\n17,600<\/span><\/td>\n19,300<\/span><\/td>\n27%<\/span><\/td>\nMiami, FL<\/span><\/td>\nMiami, FL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/span><\/td>\nWashington, D.C.<\/span><\/td>\n12,900<\/span><\/td>\n13,600<\/span><\/td>\n18%<\/span><\/td>\nVirginia Beach, VA<\/span><\/td>\nVirginia Beach, VA<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\n6,300<\/span><\/td>\n5,200<\/span><\/td>\n17%<\/span><\/td>\nMilwaukee, WI<\/span><\/td>\nMilwaukee, WI<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/span><\/td>\nBoston, MA<\/span><\/td>\n4,900<\/span><\/td>\n8,000<\/span><\/td>\n18%<\/span><\/td>\nPortland, ME<\/span><\/td>\nPortland, ME<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/span><\/td>\nDenver, CO<\/span><\/td>\n2,700<\/span><\/td>\n3,100<\/span><\/td>\n31%<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/span><\/td>\nDetroit, MI<\/span><\/td>\n2,200<\/span><\/td>\n1,000<\/span><\/td>\n30%<\/span><\/td>\nCleveland, OH<\/span><\/td>\nCleveland, OH<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/span><\/td>\nSeattle, WA<\/span><\/td>\n1,500<\/span><\/td>\n15,400<\/span><\/td>\n17%<\/span><\/td>\nPhoenix, AZ<\/span><\/td>\nPhoenix, AZ<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/span><\/td>\nHartford, CT<\/span><\/td>\n1,500<\/span><\/td>\n500<\/span><\/td>\n71%<\/span><\/td>\nBoston, MA<\/span><\/td>\nBoston, MA<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in October-December 2022<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Below is a map of the most popular destinations for Redfin.com users who are leaving the <\/a><\/span>Los Angeles<\/span> metro. To view similar maps for the metros in this report and other metros, please visit the area\u2019s <\/span>Redfin housing market page<\/span><\/a> and scroll down to the \u201cmigration\u201d section.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Methodology<\/h3>\n

Our migration analysis is based on about two million Redfin.com users who viewed for-sale homes online across more than 100 metro areas from October 2022 to December 2022. To measure the share of homebuyers looking to relocate from one metro to another, we calculate the portion of overall home searchers that are migrants.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A Redfin.com user counts as a migrant if they viewed at least 10 for-sale homes in the third quarter and at least one of those homes was outside their home metro area. For instance, if a Redfin.com user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> views 10 homes in a three-month period and all of them are in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a>, that user counts as a full migrant to <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a>. If a user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> views 10 homes in a three-month period and five are in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a> but five are in <\/span>San Diego<\/span><\/a>, that user counts as half of a migrant to <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a> and half of a migrant to <\/span>San Diego<\/span><\/a>. If a user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> views 10 homes in a three-month period, nine in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> and one in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a>, that user counts as one-tenth of a migrant to <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The analysis includes combined statistical areas with at least 500 Redfin.com users based in that region and at least 500 users searching for homes in that region. For instance, a user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> searching for a home in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a> counts toward the first condition, a user based in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a> searching for a home in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> counts toward the second condition, and a user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> searching for a home in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> counts toward both. Redfin\u2019s migration data goes back to 2017.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Economic uncertainty and 6%-plus mortgage rates caused fewer Americans to purchase homes in the fourth quarter. But those who did buy relocated at an unprecedented rate due to remote work and the allure of more affordable options. A record one-quarter (24.6%) of Redfin.com users looked to move to a different metro area in the fourth […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":75706,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[20,21],"coauthors":[124],"class_list":["post-75703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-migration","tag-housing-affordability","tag-migration"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nA Record 25% of Home Searchers Looked to Move to a New Metro at the End of 2022<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Economic uncertainty and 6%-plus mortgage rates caused fewer Americans to purchase homes in the fourth quarter. 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