{"id":76074,"date":"2023-04-10T05:00:45","date_gmt":"2023-04-10T12:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=76074"},"modified":"2023-04-07T13:06:18","modified_gmt":"2023-04-07T20:06:18","slug":"demand-down-second-homes-march-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/demand-down-second-homes-march-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Demand For Vacation Homes Is Down More Than 50% From Pre-Pandemic Levels"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The number of people locking in mortgages for second homes dropped to its lowest level since 2016 in February and remained nearly as low in March. Prospective second-home buyers are deterred by high costs, a slowing short-term rental market and the declining prevalence of remote work.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mortgage-rate locks for second homes were down 52% from pre-pandemic levels on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, compared with a 13% decline for primary homes. Second-home rate locks fell to their lowest level since 2016 in February and remained nearly as low in March.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-76075 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/mortgage-rate-locks-april-7.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1172\" height=\"761\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/mortgage-rate-locks-april-7.png 1172w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/mortgage-rate-locks-april-7-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/mortgage-rate-locks-april-7-1024x665.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/mortgage-rate-locks-april-7-768x499.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1172px) 100vw, 1172px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s according to a Redfin analysis of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www2.optimalblue.com\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Optimal Blue<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> data. A mortgage-rate lock is an agreement between a homebuyer and a lender that allows the homebuyer to lock in an interest rate on a mortgage for a certain period of time, offering protection against future interest-rate hikes. Homebuyers must specify whether they are applying to secure a mortgage rate for a primary home, a second home or an investment property. This analysis does not include cash purchases. We define \u201cpre-pandemic levels\u201d as January and February of 2020. We used early 2020 as a comparison point because it provides a baseline for mortgage demand before homebuyer activity fluctuated wildly during the pandemic.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Second-home demand is also down from a year ago and from January 2022, just before mortgage rates started rising from record lows. Mortgage-rate locks for second homes were down 49% year over year in March and down 71% from January 2022. Mortgage-rate locks for primary homes have dropped 29% year over year and 35% since January 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The drop in second-home demand follows a meteoric rise during the pandemic homebuying boom. Mortgage-rate locks for second homes reached a peak of 89% above pre-pandemic levels in August 2020. At that time, many affluent Americans bought homes in vacation destinations, encouraged by low mortgage rates, remote work, and limitations on traveling from place to place.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Second-home buyers are deterred by high rates, newly instituted loan fees, slowing rental market<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A scarcity of new listings, elevated mortgage rates, still-high home prices and persistent inflation, among other economic woes, are holding back demand for both primary and second homes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A variety of factors are causing the outsized<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">drop in second-home<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">demand:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Many potential second-home buyers are priced out because it\u2019s frequently more expensive to buy a vacation home than a primary home. The typical second home was worth $465,000 in 2022, versus $375,000 for a primary home. Additionally, the federal government increased loan fees for second homes in <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fhfa.gov\/Media\/PublicAffairs\/Pages\/FHFA-Announces-Targeted-Increases-to-Enterprise-Pricing-Framework.aspx#:~:text=For%20second%20home%20loans%2C%20upfront,loan%2Dto%2Dvalue%20ratio.&amp;text=%E2%80%8BThe%20Federal%20Housing%20Finance,11%20Federal%20Home%20Loan%20Banks.\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">April 2022<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vacation-home buyers are quicker to pull back from the market than primary-home buyers because second homes aren\u2019t a necessity.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Workers are returning to the office.\u00a0 Second homes are less attractive when there\u2019s less time to spend in them. While working from home is more common than it was before the pandemic, the share of job openings that allow remote work has <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/the-job-market-for-remote-workers-is-shrinking-11674526943\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">shrunk<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> since early 2022.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Buying a vacation home to rent it out is nowhere near as attractive as it was during the pandemic homebuying and investing boom. Owners of short-term rentals on sites like Airbnb are reporting a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/6223185\/airbnbs-empty-short-term-rentals\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">steep decline<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in business. That\u2019s because many people became vacation-rental hosts during the pandemic, which led to oversupply. Many local governments are also instituting new short-term-rental <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/cities-fighting-airbnbs-with-regulations-for-short-term-rentals-2022-5#dallas-texas-7\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">regulations<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, like new taxes and stricter permitting. The long-term rental market is also <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/redfin-rental-report-february-2023\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">cooling<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bank accounts are shrinking as stock markets <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/livecoverage\/stock-market-news-today-04-06-2023\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">decline<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, so would-be buyers have less cash on hand for down payments and monthly payments.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Many people with the means and desire to buy a second home have already done so, during the pandemic homebuying boom of 2020 and 2021.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cWith housing payments near their <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-scarce-new-listings-fast-market\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">all-time high<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">; a lot of people can\u2019t afford to buy one home right now, let alone a second,\u201d said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. \u201cAdd the recent increase in loan fees, inflation, shaky financial markets, the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/us-policy\/2022\/06\/21\/inflation-covid-aid-economy\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">end<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of pandemic-related financial stimulus and many companies calling workers back to the office, and it\u2019s simply a challenging time for most Americans to buy a vacation home.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But there are still some second-home buyers out there, especially in popular vacation destinations. Phoenix Redfin agent Van Welborn said some buyers are looking for vacation condos, especially in desirable neighborhoods.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cIt\u2019s mostly affluent cash buyers who don\u2019t have to worry about high rates,\u201d Welborn said. \u201cThey\u2019re motivated to buy now because they think they can get a vacation home for under asking price\u2013and in some cases, they\u2019re right. There are fewer buyers looking to buy properties to be used as short-term rentals, though, as they\u2019re finding that the market is saturated.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Interest in second homes first fell below pre-pandemic levels in March 2022 as mortgage rates rose and the loan-fee increase loomed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Methodology<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The data in this report is from a Redfin analysis of mortgage-rate lock data from real estate analytics firm <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www2.optimalblue.com\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Optimal Blue<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. It does not include cash purchases. Redfin created a seasonally adjusted index of Optimal Blue\u2019s data to adjust for typical seasonal patterns and allow for simple comparisons of second-home demand before, during and after the pandemic. We define \u201cpre-pandemic\u201d as January and February 2020 and set the index for that period to 100. Any data point above 100 represents second-home demand that\u2019s above pre-pandemic levels and any data point below 100 represents demand below pre-pandemic levels. This data is subject to revision.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A mortgage-rate lock is an agreement between a homebuyer and a lender that allows the homebuyer to lock in an interest rate on a mortgage for a certain period of time, offering protection against future interest-rate hikes. Homebuyers must specify whether they are applying to secure a mortgage rate for a primary home, a second home or an investment property. Roughly <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/f.hubspotusercontent10.net\/hubfs\/4225469\/Daily-Briefing-Files\/111720-Daily-Market-Briefing.pdf?utm_campaign=DAILY%20BRIEFING%3A%20Mortgage%20Market%20Trends%20%26%20Rate%20Activity&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_rJREAU041O7dLTCSSszK8thVgx5ZLbxG5gUSP3Lze1YmGVqPGf8qFS1a_J4OJT6bE92hQ0usjKIeSlZ79_9_KNdN5HA&amp;_hsmi=100118857&amp;utm_content=100118857&amp;utm_source=hs_email&amp;hsCtaTracking=dd6feab3-8164-4576-9814-7d1dcdea398c%7C32e55f2c-05c3-4f18-acdf-e0fec0b66c48\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">80%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of mortgage-rate locks result in actual home purchases.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The number of people locking in mortgages for second homes dropped to its lowest level since 2016 in February and remained nearly as low in March. Prospective second-home buyers are deterred by high costs, a slowing short-term rental market and the declining prevalence of remote work. Mortgage-rate locks for second homes were down 52% from [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":76076,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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