{"id":76250,"date":"2023-05-23T04:00:55","date_gmt":"2023-05-23T11:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=76250"},"modified":"2023-05-22T19:32:54","modified_gmt":"2023-05-23T02:32:54","slug":"real-estate-local-home-price-growth-pandemic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/real-estate-local-home-price-growth-pandemic\/","title":{"rendered":"How Much Are Home Prices Rising or Falling? The Answer Depends More on Location Than it Has in Over a Decade"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prices are falling by double digits in the Bay Area and rising by double digits in South Florida\u2013a gap that\u2019s near a 30-year high. The wild pandemic-era housing market made price growth trends more local than they had been since 2009.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Real estate trends have been more local in the last year than they have been since 2009.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Metro-to-metro variations in home-price growth reached a 13-year high in spring 2022, at the tail end of the pandemic homebuying boom. Though variation has come down since then, price growth still fluctuates much more than before the pandemic as the housing market cools quickly from the homebuying boom in some parts of the country but holds steady in others.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The historic price-growth gap between San Francisco and Miami illustrates just how local the housing market remains, with the Bay Area losing homebuyers and South Florida attracting them. San Francisco home prices are down 10.1% year over year, while Miami prices are up 10.9% to a near-record high. That 21-percentage-point difference is near the biggest in over three decades (it hit a peak of 23 points in August 2022), and it\u2019s the largest gap among the major U.S. metros Redfin analyzed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

This is according to a Redfin analysis of <\/span>Case-Shiller Home Price Index<\/span><\/a> data from January 1988 through February 2023, the most recent month for which data is available. When we say \u201chome price\u201d in this report, we\u2019re referring to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks home values each month by comparing<\/span> repeat home sales<\/span><\/a> of single-family home sales over time. When we refer to \u201cnational average\u201d price changes, we\u2019re referring to a <\/span>composite<\/span><\/a> of the 20 major metro areas the index covers. Scroll down for more on methodology.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The wide gap in price growth between San Francisco and Miami reflects the starkly different homebuying experience in those two parts of the country. Some Bay Area house hunters who have been priced out for the last few years may finally be able to break into the market\u2013if they can afford today\u2019s elevated mortgage rates and still-high prices and find a home for sale amid the <\/span>supply shortage<\/span><\/a>. Meanwhile, many South Florida locals are finding it harder than ever to afford a home.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

San Francisco home prices are dropping largely because remote work has untethered many tech employees from the Bay Area, with domestic migration away from that part of the country more than doubling between 2020 and 2022. Additionally, layoffs in the technology industry and declining tech stocks\u2013combined with high mortgage rates and home prices that are still the most expensive in the country\u2013have diminished the Bay Area\u2019s\u00a0 pool of buyers. But Miami prices are still rising as the Sunshine State <\/span>continues to attract<\/span><\/a> remote workers fleeing more expensive parts of the country.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe stark difference in home-price dynamics between the Bay Area and Miami may be a reflection of a long-term, pandemic-fueled shift in where people choose to live,\u201d said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. \u201cThe fact that Miami prices are holding up well despite the national <\/span>pullback<\/span><\/a> in homebuying suggests the relative popularity of Florida is here to stay. Even though some employees are returning to offices at least <\/span>a few days a week<\/span><\/a>, the pandemic has given many Americans much more freedom on where they choose to live\u2013and a lot of them are choosing places where shelling out $1.5 million for a run-of-the-mill home isn\u2019t the norm.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The Bay Area is still much more expensive than South Florida, but as San Francisco\u2019s home prices fall and Miami\u2019s rise, the amount of money a homebuyer saves by moving across the country has diminished. San Francisco\u2019s median home-sale price was still 2.9 times higher than Miami\u2019s in February (roughly $1.42 million versus $483,000), but that\u2019s down from 4.4 times higher in February 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n

After San Francisco and Miami, the metros with the next-biggest gaps are also expensive West Coast tech hubs paired with relatively affordable Sun Belt locales.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n