{"id":76353,"date":"2023-06-14T04:00:21","date_gmt":"2023-06-14T11:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=76353"},"modified":"2023-06-20T15:04:30","modified_gmt":"2023-06-20T22:04:30","slug":"high-mortgage-rates-lock-in-homeowners-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/high-mortgage-rates-lock-in-homeowners-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Nearly Everyone With a Mortgage Has an Interest Rate Below 6%, Prompting Many to Stay Put"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Roughly 4 in 5 homeowners with mortgages have an interest rate below 5%, and nearly one-quarter have a rate below 3%.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With rates now close to 7%, many homeowners aren\u2019t moving, which is intensifying a shortage of homes for sale.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rates would need to fall quite a bit to motivate homeowners to put their home on the market. Roughly one-quarter of likely home sellers say they would feel more urgency to sell if rates were to drop to 5% or lower, according to a recent Redfin survey. The share increases to nearly 80% if rates were to 3% or lower.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">More than nine of every 10 (91.8%) U.S. homeowners with mortgages have an interest rate below 6%. That\u2019s down just slightly from the record high of 92.9% hit in mid-2022.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-76354 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/mortgage-holders-1024x744.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"744\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/mortgage-holders-1024x744.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/mortgage-holders-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/mortgage-holders-768x558.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/mortgage-holders-1536x1116.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/mortgage-holders.png 1600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That means well <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">over <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">92% of homeowners with mortgages have mortgage rates below the current weekly average of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/pmms\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">6.71%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which is near the highest level in over 20 years. Homeowners holding onto their comparatively low mortgage rates is the main reason for today\u2019s major <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-new-listings-lowest-level-on-record\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">shortage<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of new listings.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is according to a Redfin analysis of Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data as of the fourth quarter of 2022, the most recent period for which data is available. This analysis is limited to households with outstanding mortgages. See the bottom of this report more on methodology.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Here\u2019s the full breakdown of where today\u2019s homeowners fall on the mortgage-rate spectrum:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Below 6%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 91.8% of U.S. mortgaged homeowners have a rate below 6%, down from a record high of 92.9% in the second quarter of 2022, as noted above.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Below 5%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 82.4% have a rate below 5%. That\u2019s down from a peak of 85.7% in the first quarter of 2022.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Below 4%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 62% have a rate below 4%, also down from a record high (65.3%) hit in the first quarter of 2022.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Below 3%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 23.5% an interest rate below 3%, near the highest share on record. The highest was 24.6% in the first quarter of 2022.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Many would-be sellers are staying put rather than listing their home to avoid taking on a much higher mortgage rate when they purchase their next house. This \u201clock in\u201d effect has pushed inventory down to record lows this spring. New listings of homes for sale and the <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">total <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">number of listings have both dropped to their <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-new-listings-lowest-level-on-record\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">lowest level<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> on record for this time of year, which is fueling homebuyer competition in some markets and preventing home prices from falling further even amid tepid demand.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even though the share of homeowners with mortgage rates below 5% or 6% has come down slightly because more people have bought homes with today\u2019s elevated rates, it\u2019s still true that nearly every homeowner would take on a higher mortgage rate if they moved. That\u2019s making most people who don\u2019t <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">need <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">to move stay put, which means it\u2019s slim pickings for buyers. Pending home sales are down <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-new-listings-lowest-level-on-record\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">about 17%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from a year ago.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cHigh mortgage rates are a double whammy because they\u2019re discouraging both buyers and sellers\u2013and they\u2019re discouraging sellers so much that even the buyers who <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">are <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">out there are having trouble finding a place to buy,\u201d said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/taylormarr\/\">Taylor Marr<\/a>. \u201cThe lock-in effect is unlikely to go away in the near future. Mortgage rates probably won\u2019t drop below 6% before the end of the year, and most homeowners wouldn\u2019t be motivated to sell unless rates dropped further. Some of them simply don\u2019t want to take on a 6%-plus mortgage rate and some can\u2019t afford to.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Just over one-quarter (27%) of U.S. homeowners who are considering listing their home in the next year would feel more urgency to sell if rates dropped to 5% or below. That\u2019s according to a Redfin survey conducted by Qualtrics in early June. Roughly half (49%) would feel more urgency if rates were to drop to 4% or below, and the share increases to 78% if they were to drop to 3% or below\u2014a situation that is highly unlikely any time in the near future. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThe only people selling right now are the ones who need to,\u201d said Atlanta <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/premier\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin Premier<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> agent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/real-estate-agents\/jasmine-harris\">Jasmine Harris<\/a>. \u201cThe last three potential sellers I\u2019ve met are people who are moving out of the country. I\u2019m also working with someone who\u2019s moving out of town for a new job and another person who needs a smaller home for health reasons. So there are some homes coming on the market, but not nearly as many as there would be if rates weren\u2019t so high. In more typical times, we\u2019d also have people selling simply because they wanted to move to a different neighborhood or wanted a bigger home and\/or one with different features.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s worth noting that for some homeowners, the fact that home prices soared throughout the pandemic means they have enough equity to justify selling and taking on a higher rate. Home prices have come down from the peak they hit in 2022, but the median U.S. sale price is still more than 30% higher than it was just before the pandemic started. People who are buying a less expensive home than the one they\u2019re selling, perhaps because they\u2019re relocating to a more affordable part of the country or downsizing, may be more likely to move even if it means taking on a higher rate.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>The typical monthly mortgage payment has increased $1,000 over the last three years as rates have risen from record lows and home prices have increased<\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The typical homebuyer purchasing today\u2019s median-priced U.S. home (roughly $380,000) at the current average 6.7% mortgage rate would take on a monthly payment of roughly <\/span><b>$2,600<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, a record high. That\u2019s up more than $300 from a year ago and up more than $1,000 from three years ago, using the median sale price and average mortgage rates from those time periods.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nearly everyone has a mortgage rate below the one they would get if they bought a home today, but the difference in monthly payments varies depending on each individual situation. A mortgage holder in the 3% to 4% range is more likely to feel handcuffed to their home than someone in the 5% to 6% range, for instance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Consider these hypothetical homeowners:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Bought in 2018<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Buyer A bought their home when the median U.S. home price was around $280,000 and the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was around 4.5%. Their <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/mortgage-calculator\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">monthly mortgage payment<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is about <\/span><b>$1,540<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, more than <\/span><b>$1,000 lower<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than the $2,600 it would be if they bought a home at today\u2019s median home price with today\u2019s rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Bought in late 2020<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Buyer B bought their home when the typical home was selling for around $320,000 and the average rate was about 3%. Their monthly payment is also around <\/span><b>$1,540 <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">per month, more than <\/span><b>$1,000 lower<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than it would be if they bought a home with today\u2019s prices and rates.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Bought in mid-2022<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Buyer C bought their home when the typical home was selling for about $425,000 and rates were around 5%. Their monthly payment is around <\/span><b>$2,400 <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">per month. That\u2019s just <\/span><b>$200 lower<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than it would be today, as home prices have come down since then and rates were already on the rise. That buyer may not feel locked in by their mortgage rate, but they\u2019re also not very likely to consider selling their home, as they just bought it one year ago.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4><b>Methodology<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This report is based on a Redfin analysis of fourth quarter 2022 data from the FHFA\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fhfa.gov\/DataTools\/Downloads\/Pages\/National-Mortgage-Database-Aggregate-Data.aspx\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">National Mortgage Database<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which is a nationally representative 5% sample of residential mortgages in the U.S. The fourth quarter is the most recent period for which data on outstanding mortgages is available. Homebuyer mortgage rates don\u2019t typically change significantly from quarter to quarter, as most homebuyers take out 30-year mortgages.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin applied FHFA\u2019s data to the roughly 80 million owner-occupied households we estimate existed in the U.S. in 2022 based on Census data. We refer to these households as \u201chomeowners\u201d throughout this analysis. Roughly 60% of homeowners have an outstanding mortgage.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i>Editor&#8217;s note: This report has been updated. A previous version erroneously stated that 60% of mortgage holders have lived in their home for four years or less; in fact, 60% of mortgage holders have either gotten a new mortgage or refinanced an existing mortgage within the last four years.\u00a0<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Roughly 4 in 5 homeowners with mortgages have an interest rate below 5%, and nearly one-quarter have a rate below 3%.\u00a0 With rates now close to 7%, many homeowners aren\u2019t moving, which is intensifying a shortage of homes for sale. Rates would need to fall quite a bit to motivate homeowners to put their home [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":76356,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[20,623],"coauthors":[124],"class_list":["post-76353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-housing-market-news","tag-housing-affordability","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Nearly Everyone With a Mortgage Has an Interest Rate Below 6%, Prompting Many to Stay Put<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With rates now close to 7%, many homeowners aren\u2019t moving, which is intensifying a shortage of homes for sale.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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Redfin is a full-service real estate brokerage that uses modern technology to make clients smarter and faster. 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