{"id":76520,"date":"2023-07-24T04:00:19","date_gmt":"2023-07-24T11:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=76520"},"modified":"2023-08-31T14:07:32","modified_gmt":"2023-08-31T21:07:32","slug":"climate-migration-real-estate-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/climate-migration-real-estate-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Migration Into America\u2019s Most Flood-Prone Areas Has More Than Doubled Since the Start of the Pandemic"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\">\n<h4><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nearly 400,000 more people moved into than out of the most flood-prone counties in 2021 and 2022\u2014a 103% increase from the prior two years.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\">\n<h4><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The counties most vulnerable to wildfires and heat have also seen more people move in than out as the housing affordability crisis pushes Americans into disaster-prone areas.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\">\n<h4><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New Orleans and Paradise, CA buck the trend; more people are leaving than moving in following extreme devastation from hurricanes and fires.<\/span><\/i><\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The most flood-prone U.S. counties saw 384,000 more people move in than out in 2021 and 2022\u2014a 103% increase from the prior two years, when 189,000 more people moved in than out. The same trend took hold in the places most vulnerable to wildfires and heat as the pandemic homebuying boom and a housing affordability crisis pushed Americans into disaster-prone areas.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The counties with the highest wildfire risk saw 446,000 more people move in than out over the past two years, a 51% increase from 2019 and 2020. And the counties with the highest heat risk saw 629,000 more people move in than out, a 17% uptick.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-76521\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/climate-chart-1-1024x709.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"554\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/climate-chart-1-1024x709.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/climate-chart-1-300x208.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/climate-chart-1-768x532.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/climate-chart-1.png 1302w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is according to a Redfin analysis of domestic migration data from the U.S. Census Bureau and climate-risk scores from <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/firststreet.org\/risk-factor\/heat-factor\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First Street Foundation<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. We analyzed the counties in the contiguous U.S. that rank in the top 10% for flood and fire risk and the top 33% for heat risk, as measured by the share of residential properties at high risk.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Remote work and record-low mortgage rates during the pandemic prompted scores of Americans to leave expensive coastal cities like San Francisco and New York for the Sun Belt in search of more affordable housing, warm weather and\/or lower taxes. States including Florida, Texas and Arizona exploded in popularity despite increasing risk from storms, drought, wildfires and extreme heat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cIt\u2019s human nature to focus on current benefits, like waterfront views or a low cost of living, over costs that could rack up in the long run, like property damage or a decrease in property value,\u201d said Redfin Chief Economist <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/darylfairweather\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Daryl Fairweather<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. \u201cIt\u2019s<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> also human nature to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.behavioraleconomics.com\/resources\/mini-encyclopedia-of-be\/ambiguity-uncertainty-aversion\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">discount<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> risks that are tough to measure, like climate change.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Many disaster-prone areas are relatively affordable because homebuyers and renters have a larger pool of homes to choose from. America is increasingly building housing in places endangered by climate change; m<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ore than half (55%) of homes built so far this decade face fire risk, while 45% face drought risk, a separate Redfin <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/homes-built-disaster-prone-areas\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">analysis<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> found. By comparison, just 14% of homes built from 1900 to 1959 face fire risk and 37% face drought risk. New homes are also more likely than older homes to face heat and flood risk.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThe consequences of climate change haven\u2019t fully sunk in for many Americans because oftentimes, homeowners and renters don\u2019t foot the whole bill when disaster strikes,\u201d Fairweather said. \u201cInsurers and government programs frequently subsidize the cost of rebuilding after storms hit, and mortgages mean homeowners are ceding some risk to lenders\u2014especially if their house goes into foreclosure after a storm. But with natural disasters intensifying and insurers <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/business\/consumer\/homeowners-go-without-insurance-in-states-where-its-too-expensive-rcna88578\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">pulling<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> out of disaster-prone areas including Florida and California, Americans may start feeling a greater sense of urgency to mitigate climate dangers\u2014especially if their home\u2019s value is at risk of declining.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nearly half (48.7%) of people who moved in the last year believe the increasing frequency or intensity of natural disasters, extreme temperatures, and\/or rising sea levels will likely impact home values in their area in the next 10 years. That\u2019s according to a survey of roughly 2,000 U.S. residents commissioned by Redfin and conducted by Qualtrics in May and June 2023. Still, only about 5% of people who moved in the last year or plan to move in the next year listed climate change as a reason for their relocation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin.com publishes climate-risk data for nearly every for sale and off-market U.S. home to help house hunters make more informed decisions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Coastal Florida Is Top Migration Destination Despite Increasing Flood Risk<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the past two years, nearly 60,000 more people moved into than out of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/471\/FL\/Lee-County\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lee County, FL<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which includes <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/6208\/FL\/Fort-Myers\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fort Myers<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/2654\/FL\/Cape-Coral\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cape Coral<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and was ravaged by Hurricane Ian in September. That\u2019s the largest net inflow of the 306 high-flood-risk counties Redfin analyzed, and represents an increase of about 65% from the prior two years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-76522 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/flood_map-e1689970859197-1024x673.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"673\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/flood_map-e1689970859197-1024x673.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/flood_map-e1689970859197-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/flood_map-e1689970859197-768x505.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/flood_map-e1689970859197-1536x1010.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/flood_map-e1689970859197-2048x1346.png 1826w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/flood_map-e1689970859197.png 1825w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Florida is home to eight of the 10 high-flood-risk counties that experienced the largest net inflows during the past two years. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Half of homes in Lee County face high flood risk. Still, homebuilders continue to build and homebuyers continue to buy. The Cape Coral metro area has more than made up for the plunge in new listings caused by the storm, and home sales have also rebounded, a separate Redfin <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/hurricane-ian-housing-lookback-2023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">analysis<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> found.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cBuilders in Cape Coral have not stopped\u2014they\u2019re just building like nothing happened,\u201d said local <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/premier\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin Premier<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> real estate agent <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/real-estate-agents\/isabel-ariassquires\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Isabel Arias-Squires<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. \u201cThat\u2019s largely because there\u2019s plenty of demand for new homes. Many folks who moved into Florida from the Northeast or the West during the pandemic are leaving, but they\u2019re quickly being replaced by new out-of-staters. Some people just want to be on the water no matter what, and\/or they want to move here for family, weather or political reasons. The Cape is not slowing down.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Parts of coastal Florida may start to skew wealthier as the high cost of rebuilding after storms pushes lower-income residents to more affordable, inland areas, Fairweather said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The good news is that homes being built in Florida today tend to be more <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/climate-solutions\/2022\/10\/01\/punta-gorda-hurricane-ian-damage\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">resilient<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than older homes because they must adhere to stricter, modern building codes, and many areas are constructing more resilient infrastructure. In the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/24686\/FL\/Orlovista\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Orlo Vista<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> neighborhood near <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/13655\/FL\/Orlando\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Orlando<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, for example, there\u2019s a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/climate-environment\/2023\/06\/19\/florida-flooding-hurricane-preparation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$23 million<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> project underway to expand retention ponds and install new water pumps after the area faced significant flooding from Hurricane Ian.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>People Are Leaving Storm-Prone Louisiana as Insurance Costs Soar<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While people are still moving to Florida, they\u2019re leaving flood-prone Louisiana, which has among the largest concentration of high-risk homes. Nearly every home in <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/1265\/LA\/Orleans-Parish\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Orleans Parish<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/1255\/LA\/Jefferson-Parish\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jefferson Parish<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014the areas including and surrounding <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/14233\/LA\/New-Orleans\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New Orleans<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014faces high flood risk. Both saw roughly 15,000 more people move out than in over the past two years, adding to outflows from the prior two years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThe rise in homeowners insurance rates across Louisiana is decreasing the amount of money people have to put toward buying a home, diminishing their purchasing power,\u201d <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">said local <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/premier\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin Premier<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> real estate agent <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/real-estate-agents\/jes-menes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jes Menes<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cElevated insurance costs are also driving some landlords to increase rents, making housing more expensive for tenants.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Louisiana\u2019s insurance commissioner recently <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/05\/31\/climate\/climate-change-insurance-wildfires-california.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">said<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> the state\u2019s insurance market is \u201cin crisis\u201d because so many insurers have either failed or <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fox8live.com\/2022\/07\/16\/42000-louisiana-homeowners-dropped-by-insurance-company-friday-state-insurance-commissioner-addresses-crisis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">backed<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> out. Louisiana boosted premiums for its state-mandated insurance program 63% to an average of $4,700 a year in December, and also said it would subsidize private insurers in an attempt to get them to return.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Inland California, Utah and Arizona See Populations Swell as Fire Risk Grows<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/335\/CA\/Riverside-County\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Riverside County, CA<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014home to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/15935\/CA\/Riverside\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Riverside<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/14315\/CA\/Palm-Springs\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Palm Springs<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014nearly 600,000 homes face high wildfire risk. That\u2019s the most among the 306 high-fire-risk counties Redfin analyzed, and represents two-thirds of the county\u2019s total homes. Nearly 40,000 more people have moved into than out of Riverside County in the past two years\u2014the third highest net inflow of the counties we analyzed and a 36% jump from the prior two years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-76523 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fire_map-e1689970915803-1024x673.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"673\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fire_map-e1689970915803-1024x673.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fire_map-e1689970915803-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fire_map-e1689970915803-768x505.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fire_map-e1689970915803-1536x1010.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fire_map-e1689970915803-2048x1346.png 1826w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fire_map-e1689970915803.png 1825w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Inland Empire has <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lamag.com\/culturefiles\/exodus-from-l-a-and-orange-counties-feeds-inland-empire-growth-spurt\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">grown<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in popularity partly because it offers more affordable housing costs than coastal California cities including Los Angeles and San Francisco. Parts of Utah, Nevada and Arizona have seen their populations swell for the same reason.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/2920\/UT\/Washington-County\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Washington County, UT<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, an area in the southwestern corner of Utah that includes Zion National Park and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/16751\/UT\/St-George\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">St. George<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, 95.5% of homes face high fire risk, and drought is also a major issue. It saw 15,000 more people move in than out over the past two years. The story is similar in <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/2918\/UT\/Utah-County\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Utah County<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which is just south of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/17150\/UT\/Salt-Lake-City\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Salt Lake City<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and includes <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/16042\/UT\/Provo\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Provo<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There is at least one part of the country that\u2019s seeing a net <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.chicoer.com\/2021\/08\/17\/butte-one-of-11-california-counties-to-lose-population\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">outflow<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of residents in the wake of wildfires. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/306\/CA\/Butte-County\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Butte County, CA<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is home to the town of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/14376\/CA\/Paradise\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Paradise<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, most of which was destroyed by the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fire.ca.gov\/our-impact\/remembering-the-camp-fire\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Camp Fire<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in 2018. It lost nearly 2,000 more people than it gained in 2021 and 2022\u2014one of the biggest declines among the 306 counties Redfin analyzed. During the prior two years, it had a net outflow of 17,000\u2014more than any other county Redfin analyzed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin Chief Economist <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Daryl Fairweather<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> has her own climate migration story. She left Seattle in 2020 to escape wildfire smoke and moved to Wisconsin. It was free from smoke for the first few years she was there, but this June was <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/06\/28\/us\/canada-wildfire-smoke-air-quality-midwest.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">hit<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> with four days of unhealthy smoke from wildfires in Canada.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;There&#8217;s nowhere to hide,\u201d Fairweather said. \u201cEvery place on planet earth will have to deal with the ramifications of climate change. The midwest may be insulated from sea level rise, but it still faces risk from storms, heat waves and drought.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>People Flock to Phoenix for Affordability, Stumbling Into Extreme Heat and Drought<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/220\/AZ\/Maricopa-County\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Maricopa County, AZ<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, home to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/14240\/AZ\/Phoenix\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Phoenix<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, 76,000 more people moved in than out during the past two years\u2014the largest net inflow among the 1,019 high-heat-risk counties Redfin analyzed. In all of those counties, roughly 100% of homes face high heat risk.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/county\/2682\/TX\/Collin-County\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Collin County, TX<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, just north of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/30794\/TX\/Dallas\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Dallas<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and home to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/city\/30868\/TX\/Plano\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Plano<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, saw the second biggest net inflow, at 61,000, followed by Lee County, at 57,000. Many parts of the U.S. are grappling with multiple climate risks at once. Lee County is a good example, facing high risk from both flooding and heat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-76524 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/heat_map-e1689970962121-1024x678.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"678\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/heat_map-e1689970962121-1024x678.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/heat_map-e1689970962121-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/heat_map-e1689970962121-768x509.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/heat_map-e1689970962121-1536x1017.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/heat_map-e1689970962121.png 1812w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The explosion in Phoenix\u2019s population has coincided with a dire climate crisis: a lack of water. Arizona recently said it will <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/06\/01\/climate\/arizona-phoenix-permits-housing-water.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">stop<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> issuing homebuilding permits in some parts of the Phoenix area as migration and extensive development strains limited water resources. That will cap the number of new communities that can be built in the area, which could eventually increase the cost of housing.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Still, Maricopa County <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/newsroom\/press-releases\/2023\/population-estimates-counties.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">gained<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> more residents than any other U.S. county in 2022, attracting scores of remote workers from expensive coastal cities like Seattle, where the cost of living is significantly higher. The influx of out-of-towners has caused home prices to surge, but Phoenix remains much more affordable than many major job hubs. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The typical home in Phoenix sells for about $450,000\u2014roughly half the $800,000 cost of the typical home in Seattle, the most common <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-migration-trends-may-2023\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">origin<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of people moving to Phoenix.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Phoenix has <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/article\/us-heat-wave-temperatures.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">experienced<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> more than 20 consecutive days of 110-degree-plus temperatures this summer, breaking the prior streak of 18 set in 1974. And it\u2019s not just Phoenix; July 3-5 were the hottest days <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/07\/06\/climate\/climate-change-record-heat.html#:~:text=Earth's%20Hottest%20Days%20on%20Record%20Were%20July%203%2D5&amp;text=A%20chart%20shows%20daily%20average,high%20of%2062.9%20degrees%20Fahrenheit.&amp;text=Already%2C%20the%20surge%20has%20been%20striking.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ever recorded<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> on planet Earth.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Methodology<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Climate risk data for fire, flood and heat comes from the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/riskfactor.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First Street Foundation<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which assigns six different climate-risk categories to properties across the U.S.\u2014<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">minimal, minor, moderate, major, severe and extreme. For this report, a &#8220;high-risk&#8221;\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">property is one that falls into the major, severe and extreme category for a climate <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">risk. The climate risk scores are based on a property&#8217;s current risk as well as how that risk is expected to grow over the next 30 years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We identified counties in the contiguous U.S. that rank in the top 10% for flood and fire risk and the top 33% for heat risk, as measured by the share of residential properties at high risk. We chose the top 33% for heat risk because in all of these counties, nearly every property faces high heat risk. For every county identified, we calculated the net domestic migration during 2019-2020 and 2021-2022 using the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/programs-surveys\/popest\/data.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">U.S. Census Bureau&#8217;s Vintage Population Estimates<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> data. Net domestic migration is the difference between the number of people moving into an area and the number moving out. A positive number indicates in-migration and a negative number indicates out-migration.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nearly 400,000 more people moved into than out of the most flood-prone counties in 2021 and 2022\u2014a 103% increase from the prior two years.\u00a0 The counties most vulnerable to wildfires and heat have also seen more people move in than out as the housing affordability crisis pushes Americans into disaster-prone areas.\u00a0 New Orleans and Paradise, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13346,"featured_media":76526,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[52,43,42],"tags":[565,630,21,623],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[125,115],"class_list":["post-76520","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-change","category-housing-equality-policy","category-migration","tag-climate","tag-climate-change","tag-migration","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Migration to Flood-Prone Areas Has More Than Doubled Since 2020<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The U.S. counties most endangered by flooding, fire and heat have seen more people move in than out over the past two years.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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