{"id":76701,"date":"2023-08-25T02:00:52","date_gmt":"2023-08-25T09:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=76701"},"modified":"2023-08-31T13:37:04","modified_gmt":"2023-08-31T20:37:04","slug":"housing-market-tracker-july-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-tracker-july-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Pending Home Sales Ticked Up in July But Still Hovered Near Recent Low"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pending sales have stabilized following months of steep declines, but homebuyer demand remains below pre-pandemic levels as house hunters grapple with elevated mortgage rates, high prices and a lack of supply.<\/span><\/i><\/h2>\n

Pending home sales inched up in July\u2014rising 0.7% from a month earlier to the highest level since the start of the year on a seasonally adjusted basis. Still, they were only 5.4% above the low point they hit in March. Pending sales fell 15.7% year over year, the smallest annual decline since last summer.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Pending sales have stabilized as the shock of elevated mortgage rates has subsided. They dropped to 367,000 in March\u2014the lowest since the onset of the pandemic\u2014and have been hovering around that level ever since (they clocked in at 387,000 in July) as prospective buyers continue to be discouraged by high housing costs and a lack of homes for sale.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cHome sales hit a bottom in 2022 and haven\u2019t meaningfully budged since,\u201d said Redfin Chief Economist <\/span>Daryl Fairweather<\/span><\/a>. \u201cFading recession <\/span>fears<\/span><\/a> and the prospect of further home price increases have brought some house hunters off the sidelines, but for the most part, buyers remain hesitant to jump into the market because their buying power is so much <\/span>lower<\/span><\/a> than it was a year ago.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate was 6.84% in July, up from 6.71% a month earlier and 5.41% a year earlier\u2014and it has climbed even higher since. As of Thursday, it was <\/span>7.23%<\/span><\/a>\u2014the highest since 2001. That, along with stubbornly high home prices, has sent the typical homebuyer\u2019s monthly mortgage payment up <\/span>substantially<\/span><\/a> from a year ago.<\/span><\/p>\n

The median home sale price rose 1.7% year over year to $421,872 in July\u2014the first annual increase since the start of the year. That\u2019s just 2.5% below the record high of $432,476 set in May 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Housing prices have remained high despite sluggish homebuyer demand because there are so few homes on the market, meaning the buyers who <\/span>are<\/span><\/i> out there are frequently competing for a small pool of properties. The total number of homes for sale (active listings) fell 3.9% month over month in July to the lowest level on record on a seasonally adjusted basis, and dropped<\/span> 19.5% from a year earlier. That\u2019s the biggest annual decline in more than two years.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a seller\u2019s market, but only because there\u2019s so little inventory,\u201d said Salt Lake City <\/span>Redfin Premier<\/span><\/a> real estate agent <\/span>Mitch Price<\/span><\/a>. \u201cBuyers are getting hammered by high interest rates, so they\u2019re not just jumping on whatever is available like they were before. They don\u2019t want to overpay, so they\u2019re waiting for the right home. As a seller, if you overprice your home, that\u2019s your doomsday ticket.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Housing supply is dwindling because high mortgage rates are dissuading homeowners from selling. New listings in July were little changed from a month earlier, rising 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis, but they were down 22.2% from a year earlier. Nearly <\/span>every<\/span><\/a> U.S. homeowner with a mortgage has an interest rate below 6%, prompting most to stay put because selling and buying a new home would likely mean taking on a much higher monthly payment.<\/span><\/p>\n

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July 2023 Highlights<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nJuly 2023<\/b><\/td>\nMonth-Over-Month Change<\/b><\/td>\nYear-Over-Year Change<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median sale price<\/b><\/td>\n$421,872<\/span><\/td>\n-0.8%<\/span><\/td>\n1.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pending sales, seasonally adjusted<\/b><\/td>\n387,374<\/span><\/td>\n0.7%<\/span><\/td>\n-15.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Homes sold, seasonally adjusted<\/b><\/td>\n421,244<\/span><\/td>\n0.5%<\/span><\/td>\n-13.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings, seasonally adjusted<\/b><\/td>\n465,301<\/span><\/td>\n0.5%<\/span><\/td>\n-22.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
All homes for sale, seasonally adjusted (active listings)<\/b><\/td>\n1,294,987<\/span><\/td>\n-3.9%<\/span><\/td>\n-19.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Months of supply<\/b><\/td>\n2.2<\/span><\/td>\n0.3<\/span><\/td>\n-0.2<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median days on market<\/b><\/td>\n29<\/span><\/td>\n0<\/span><\/td>\n8<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of for-sale homes with a price drop<\/b><\/td>\n16.6%<\/span><\/td>\n1.6 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n-2.5 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes sold above final list price<\/b><\/td>\n38.2%<\/span><\/td>\n-1.5 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n-9.0 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average sale-to-final-list-price ratio<\/b><\/td>\n100.1%<\/span><\/td>\n-0.2 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n-0.9 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of home offers written by Redfin agents that faced competition, seasonally adjusted<\/b><\/td>\n50.5%<\/span><\/td>\n0.0 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n2.5 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pending sales that fell out of contract, as % of overall pending sales<\/b><\/td>\n15.5%<\/span><\/td>\n0.4 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n1.0 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average 30-year fixed mortgage <\/b>rate<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n6.84%<\/span><\/td>\n0.13 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n1.43 ppts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Note: Data is subject to revision<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Metro-Level Highlights: July 2023<\/span><\/h3>\n

Data in the bullets below came from a list of the 91 U.S. metro areas with populations of at least 750,000. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. A full metro-level data table can be found in the \u201cdownload\u201d tab of the dashboard embedded below or <\/span><\/i>in the monthly section of the Redfin <\/span><\/i>Data Center<\/span><\/i><\/a>. <\/span><\/i>Refer to our <\/span><\/i>metrics definition page<\/span><\/i><\/a> for explanations of metrics used in this report. Metro-level data is not seasonally adjusted.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n