{"id":76779,"date":"2023-09-13T08:03:05","date_gmt":"2023-09-13T15:03:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=76779"},"modified":"2023-09-13T08:42:26","modified_gmt":"2023-09-13T15:42:26","slug":"disappointing-inflation-report-year-end-rate-hike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/disappointing-inflation-report-year-end-rate-hike\/","title":{"rendered":"Disappointing Inflation Report Increases Odds of a November or December Rate Hike"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Fed remains unlikely to hike rates at next week\u2019s policy meeting<\/i><\/strong><\/p>\n

The latest<\/span> inflation report<\/span><\/a> on consumer prices in August came in a hair above expectations. Focusing on the month-over-month numbers, headline inflation came in at 0.6%, which was in line with expectations, because of higher gas prices. Core inflation was 0.3%, which was slightly above expectations of 0.2% and last month’s read of 0.2%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Today\u2019s report is a bit less straightforward than recent months\u2019 reports. The past two consumer price index (CPI) reports contained straightforward good news for inflation. Coupled with excellent news on the job market side, sentiment clearly swung to the \u201csoft landing\u201d side. This report is disappointing, but it\u2019s important to remember that the path to the Fed\u2019s target was never going to be a smooth one. Overall, the inflation rate is coming down on a bumpy and jagged path, just like we\u2019d expect it to.<\/span><\/p>\n

Worries About Still-Hot Labor Market Persist
\n<\/b>Still, today\u2019s report was disappointing for two reasons:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Headline inflation (everything including food and energy) jumped way up to 0.6% month over month because gas prices were up 11%. But the Fed doesn\u2019t pay much attention to headline inflation because it\u2019s a poor predictor of future inflation. Food and energy prices are inherently noisy, so it\u2019s not a good measure of underlying price pressure in the economy.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Core inflation (everything excluding food and energy) came in a little higher than expected at 0.3% month over month. It had been at 0.2% for the past two months and we had expected that to continue. Since the Fed\u2019s target is 2-2.5% annual inflation, 0.2% is consistent with that, but 0.3% is too high. But of course there will be ups and downs over the course of the year, so this isn\u2019t cause for panic, but it is a reason to remain wary. Within core inflation, shelter inflation came down, but core services excluding shelter was up sharply. This does lead to worries about the still-hot labor market and whether we will need unemployment to increase in order to finally get inflation to target.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The Fed is Unlikely to Surprise Us With a September Rate Hike
    \n<\/b>However, the Fed remains extremely unlikely to hike next week. If there is anything to know about the modern day Federal Reserve, it is that they do not surprise markets. Markets are not expecting a hike next week, and since the Fed is in its quiet period right now, the only way to warn the market about an impending hike would be to leak it to the press, which they did in <\/span>    June 2022<\/span><\/a>, but this isn\u2019t a big enough surprise for them to pull something like that again. Also, the Fed Funds rate is well within the range where it\u2019s dragging down the economy, which means that monetary policy is working even without another hike.<\/span><\/p>\n

    A Year-End Rate Hike is a Possibility, Not a Certainty
    \n<\/b>The Fed is in fine-tuning mode right now, and this data shifts the balance in favor of another hike in November or December. However, it\u2019s not absolutely clear at this point that another hike is needed, and certainly not immediately. While we\u2019re all reading the tea leaves of every number in every report, it\u2019s also important to remember that the data is noisy from month to month. Everything could look very different next month depending on whether inflation ticks up or down from here. Since we\u2019re already at 5.5% on the federal funds rate and the Fed just hiked in July, we have the luxury to wait for the next meeting and let more data come in.<\/span><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The Fed remains unlikely to hike rates at next week\u2019s policy meeting The latest inflation report on consumer prices in August came in a hair above expectations. Focusing on the month-over-month numbers, headline inflation came in at 0.6%, which was in line with expectations, because of higher gas prices. Core inflation was 0.3%, which was […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":76642,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[623],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-76779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDisappointing Inflation Report Increases Odds of a November or December Rate Hike - Redfin Real Estate News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/disappointing-inflation-report-year-end-rate-hike\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Disappointing Inflation Report Increases Odds of a November or December Rate Hike\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Fed remains unlikely to hike rates at next week\u2019s policy meeting The latest inflation report on consumer prices in August came in a hair above expectations. 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