{"id":76837,"date":"2023-09-26T05:00:35","date_gmt":"2023-09-26T12:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=76837"},"modified":"2023-10-05T10:19:18","modified_gmt":"2023-10-05T17:19:18","slug":"housing-migration-trends-august-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-migration-trends-august-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"A Record Share of Homebuyers Are Relocating, Many to Places Endangered By Climate Change"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sacramento and Las Vegas, which grapple with extreme heat, are the most popular destinations for relocating homebuyers. Four of the 10 most popular are in Florida, which faces risk of hurricanes and flooding.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

A record 26% of homebuyers are looking to move to a different part of the country, up from 24% a year ago and roughly 19% before the pandemic began.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The data in this report is based on the searches of about two million Redfin.com users who viewed for-sale homes online across more than 100 metro areas from June 2023 to August 2023. Scroll down for the full methodology.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Elevated mortgage rates\u2013the average mortgage rate was <\/span>over 7%<\/span><\/a> in August, its highest level in two decades\u2013have cooled the overall U.S. housing market, with fewer homes for sale overall and fewer buyers in the market. But a high portion of the homebuyers who <\/span>are <\/span><\/i>moving are relocating to different metro areas. There are 7% fewer Redfin.com users looking to move away from their home metro than a year ago, with seven of the 10 most popular destinations posting lower net inflows in August 2023 than August 2022. That\u2019s compared to a 16.5% decline for those Redfin.com users searching within their home metro.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Relocations are holding up better than in-metro moves largely because homebuyers are searching for affordability, and remote work gives many Americans the freedom to move. Nine of the 10 most popular migration destinations have a lower median home-sale price than the most common origin of homebuyers moving in.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sacramento, CA, for instance, is the most popular destination for relocating homebuyers. The typical home in that metro sells for $575,000, nearly a million dollars less than the typical home in San Francisco ($1,480,000), the most popular origin of buyers moving in. With a 7% mortgage rate, the monthly payment for the median-priced Sacramento home is $3,889, compared to $10,010 for the median-priced San Francisco home.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cHalf of the buyers I\u2019m working with are moving in from out of town, all but one from the Bay Area,\u201d said Alison Williams<\/a>, a Redfin Premier agent in Sacramento. \u201cMost of them are moving not necessarily because they can\u2019t afford the Bay Area, but because they want a bigger home and better quality of life. They\u2019re searching for high-end homes with spacious yards where they can raise a family. I\u2019m also working with a few investors who are looking to buy a home here and rent it out for a few years before moving in themselves.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sacramento, Las Vegas and Orlando are the most popular migration destinations<\/h3>\n

After Sacramento, Las Vegas and three Florida metros\u2013Orlando, North Port-Sarasota and Tampa\u2013are the most popular destinations for homebuyers looking to relocate. Popularity is determined by net inflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com users looked to move into an area than leave.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Myrtle Beach, SC climbed to #6 after debuting on Redfin\u2019s list of most popular destinations in July at #9. Another Florida metro, Cape Coral, is also in the top 10.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Those metros have a few things in common: They\u2019re more affordable than the most common origin of homebuyers moving in, and they face increasing climate risks. Sacramento and Las Vegas face <\/span>severe heat risk<\/span><\/a>; Orlando, North Port-Sarasota, Myrtle Beach and Cape Coral face <\/span>extreme wind\/hurricane risk<\/span><\/a>; and Tampa and Cape Coral are at <\/span>extreme risk of flooding<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While research has shown that homebuyers <\/span>consider<\/span><\/a> climate risk when deciding where to live, affordability is often a more significant factor. A recent <\/span>Redfin survey<\/span><\/a> found that roughly 8% of U.S. residents likely to move within the next year are doing so because they\u2019re concerned about the impact of climate change on their previous area, compared with 22% moving for a lower cost of living.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Moving Into, by Net Inflow\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

Net inflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to move into a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to leave<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Rank<\/b><\/td>\nMetro<\/b>*<\/b><\/td>\nNet Inflow, August 2023<\/b><\/td>\nNet Inflow, August 2022<\/b><\/td>\nTop Origin<\/b><\/td>\nTop Out-of-State Origin<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

1\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nSacramento, CA<\/span><\/td>\n5,100<\/span><\/td>\n8,900<\/span><\/td>\nSan Francisco, CA<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/span><\/td>\nLas Vegas, NV<\/span><\/td>\n5,000<\/span><\/td>\n6,800<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/span><\/td>\nOrlando, FL<\/span><\/td>\n4,300<\/span><\/td>\n2,200<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4 (tie)<\/span><\/td>\nNorth Port-Sarasota, FL<\/span><\/td>\n4,000<\/span><\/td>\n5,300<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4 (tie)<\/span><\/td>\nTampa, FL<\/span><\/td>\n4,000<\/span><\/td>\n7,100<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/span><\/td>\nMyrtle Beach, SC<\/span><\/td>\n3,700<\/span><\/td>\n3,100<\/span><\/td>\nWashington, D.C.<\/span><\/td>\nWashington, D.C.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/span><\/td>\nCape Coral, FL<\/span><\/td>\n3,600<\/span><\/td>\n5,400<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/span><\/td>\nDallas, TX<\/span><\/td>\n3,400<\/span><\/td>\n4,700<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/span><\/td>\nPortland, ME<\/span><\/td>\n3,300<\/span><\/td>\n3,100<\/span><\/td>\nBoston, MA<\/span><\/td>\nBoston, MA<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/span><\/td>\nHouston, TX<\/span><\/td>\n3,100<\/span><\/td>\n3,300<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in June 2023-August 2023<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Homebuyers are leaving expensive cities like San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles<\/h3>\n

Homebuyers are leaving San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles more than any other metro in the country. That\u2019s based on net outflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com users are looking to leave a metro than move in.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s typical for expensive job centers to top the list of places homebuyers are moving away from, as those people seek more affordable housing. Homebuyers leaving Los Angeles, for instance, are most commonly moving to Las Vegas, where homes are half the price. The story is similar for homebuyers leaving Seattle: They\u2019re most commonly moving to Spokane, WA, where the typical home sells for $430,000, compared with about $800,000 in Seattle.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Leaving, by Net Outflow<\/b><\/p>\n

Net outflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to leave a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to move in<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Rank<\/b><\/td>\nMetro<\/b>*<\/b><\/td>\nNet Outflow, August 2023<\/b><\/td>\nNet Outflow, August 2022<\/b><\/td>\nPortion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere<\/b><\/td>\nTop Destination<\/b><\/td>\nTop Out-of-State Destination<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

1<\/span><\/td>\nSan Francisco, CA<\/span><\/td>\n26,900<\/span><\/td>\n39,000<\/span><\/td>\n24%<\/span><\/td>\nSacramento, CA<\/span><\/td>\nSeattle, WA<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/span><\/td>\nNew York, NY<\/span><\/td>\n25,300<\/span><\/td>\n23,900<\/span><\/td>\n30%<\/span><\/td>\nMiami, FL<\/span><\/td>\nMiami, FL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/span><\/td>\nLos Angeles, CA<\/span><\/td>\n20,200<\/span><\/td>\n32,700<\/span><\/td>\n19%<\/span><\/td>\nLas Vegas, NV<\/span><\/td>\nLas Vegas, NV<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/span><\/td>\nWashington, D.C.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n14,500<\/span><\/td>\n18,600<\/span><\/td>\n19%<\/span><\/td>\nSalisbury, MD<\/span><\/td>\nSalisbury, MD<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\n5,000<\/span><\/td>\n3,900<\/span><\/td>\n17%<\/span><\/td>\nMilwaukee, WI<\/span><\/td>\nMilwaukee, WI<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/span><\/td>\nBoston, MA<\/span><\/td>\n4,600<\/span><\/td>\n10,100<\/span><\/td>\n21%<\/span><\/td>\nPortland, ME<\/span><\/td>\nPortland, ME<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/span><\/td>\nHartford, CT<\/span><\/td>\n3,400<\/span><\/td>\n750<\/span><\/td>\n79%<\/span><\/td>\nBoston, MA<\/span><\/td>\nBoston, MA<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/span><\/td>\nDetroit, MI<\/span><\/td>\n2,200<\/span><\/td>\n4,800<\/span><\/td>\n27%<\/span><\/td>\nGrand Rapids, MI<\/span><\/td>\nCape Coral, FL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9\u00a0 (tie)<\/span><\/td>\nDenver, CO<\/span><\/td>\n2,100<\/span><\/td>\n3,900<\/span><\/td>\n35%<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\nChicago, IL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9 (tie)<\/span><\/td>\nSeattle, WA<\/span><\/td>\n2,100<\/span><\/td>\n7,500<\/span><\/td>\n19%<\/span><\/td>\nSpokane, WA<\/span><\/td>\nPhoenix, AZ<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in June 2023-August 2023<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00a0<\/span>Below is a map of the most common origins of Redfin.com users who are moving to the Sacramento metro. To view similar maps for the metros in this report and other metros, please visit the area\u2019s <\/span>Redfin housing market page<\/span><\/a> and scroll down to the \u201cmigration\u201d section.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Map<\/a><\/p>\n

Methodology<\/b><\/h3>\n

Our migration analysis is based on about two million Redfin.com users who viewed for-sale homes online across more than 100 metro areas from June 2023 to August 2023. To measure the share of homebuyers looking to relocate from one metro to another, we calculate the portion of overall home searchers that are migrants.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A Redfin.com user counts as a migrant if they viewed at least 10 for-sale homes in the relevant three-month period and at least one of those homes was outside their home metro area. For instance, if a Redfin.com user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> views 10 homes in a three-month period and all of them are in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a>, that user counts as a full migrant to <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a>. If a user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> views 10 homes in a three-month period and five are in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a> but five are in <\/span>San Diego<\/span><\/a>, that user counts as half of a migrant to <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a> and half of a migrant to <\/span>San Diego<\/span><\/a>. If a user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> views 10 homes in a three-month period, nine in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> and one in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a>, that user counts as one-tenth of a migrant to <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The analysis includes combined statistical areas with at least 500 Redfin.com users based in that region and at least 500 users searching for homes in that region. For instance, a user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> searching for a home in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a> counts toward the first condition, a user based in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a> searching for a home in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> counts toward the second condition, and a user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> searching for a home in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> counts toward both. Redfin\u2019s migration data goes back to 2017.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sacramento and Las Vegas, which grapple with extreme heat, are the most popular destinations for relocating homebuyers. Four of the 10 most popular are in Florida, which faces risk of hurricanes and flooding.\u00a0 A record 26% of homebuyers are looking to move to a different part of the country, up from 24% a year ago […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":76839,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[630,20,623],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[124],"class_list":["post-76837","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-migration","tag-climate-change","tag-housing-affordability","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nA Record Share of Homebuyers Are Relocating, Many to Places Endangered By Climate Change<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Sacramento and Las Vegas, which grapple with extreme heat, are the most popular destinations for relocating homebuyers. 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