{"id":76931,"date":"2023-10-19T05:00:44","date_gmt":"2023-10-19T12:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=76931"},"modified":"2023-10-18T16:18:11","modified_gmt":"2023-10-18T23:18:11","slug":"housing-market-update-2023-fewest-home-sales-since-2008","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-2023-fewest-home-sales-since-2008\/","title":{"rendered":"Housing Market Update: 2023 on Pace For Fewest Home Sales Since 2008 As Mortgage Rates Hit 8%"},"content":{"rendered":"

Redfin economists say this is likely to be the slowest sales year since the Great Recession as persistently high mortgage rates and low inventory spook buyers.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

This year is likely to end with roughly 4.1 million existing home sales nationwide, the fewest since the housing bubble burst in 2008 after the subprime mortgage crisis.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What Redfin economists say: <\/b>\u201cBuyers have been in a bind all year,\u201d said Chen Zhao<\/a>, Redfin\u2019s economic research lead. \u201cHigh mortgage rates and still-high prices are making it <\/span>harder than ever<\/span><\/a> to afford a home, shutting many young people out of homeownership and causing homeowners to reevaluate whether 2023 is the right time to move. Mortgage rates are staying high longer than anticipated, keeping away everyone except those who <\/span>need<\/span><\/i> to move and pushing our sales projection for the year down to a 15-year low. The last time home sales were this low was during the Great Recession. At that time, tough economic conditions and slow demand pushed home prices down <\/span>30% year over year<\/span><\/a> in some parts of the country, creating an opportunity for first-timers to snatch up starter homes\u2013but this time, there\u2019s no deal to be had.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

What the numbers say: <\/b>The average daily mortgage rate hit <\/span>8%<\/span><\/a> this week, its highest level in 23 years. Rising rates have pushed buyers to the sidelines, with mortgage applications dropping to their <\/span>lowest level<\/span><\/a> since 1995 and Redfin\u2019s Homebuyer Demand Index\u2013a measure of tours and other early-stage demand indicators\u2013at its lowest level in a year. Pending U.S. home sales fell 8% year over year during the four weeks ending October 15; that\u2019s the smallest decline in a year and a half, but that\u2019s mostly because sales plummeted at this time in 2022. Low inventory is another factor dampening sales: There are 14% fewer homes for sale than a year ago as homeowners stay put to hold onto relatively low rates. But new listings have ticked up slightly this fall, giving buyers a small reprieve.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What real estate agents say: <\/b>Redfin agents recommend that buyers who are frustrated by low inventory and high housing costs consider new construction. Sales of newly built homes are holding up better than existing-home sales, largely because builders\u2013unlike regular homeowners\u2013aren\u2019t locked in by low rates, and they\u2019re often more motivated than homeowners to close a deal. Sales of U.S. new-construction homes increased 1.5% year over year in September as prices dropped about 4%, according to Redfin\u2019s data.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Leading indicators<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nValue (if applicable)<\/b><\/td>\nRecent change<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nSource<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n8% (Oct. 18)<\/span><\/td>\nHighest level in 23 years\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nUp from 7.1%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage News Daily\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n7.57% (week ending Oct. 12)<\/span><\/td>\nHighest level in 23 years<\/span><\/td>\nUp from 6.9%<\/span><\/td>\nFreddie Mac<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nDown 6% from a week earlier (as of week ending Oct. 13)<\/span><\/td>\nDown 21%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage Bankers Association<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nDown 6% from a month earlier (as of the week ending Oct. 15) to its lowest level in nearly a year<\/span><\/td>\nDown 6%<\/span><\/td>\nRedfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Google searches for \u201chome for sale\u201d<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nDown 23% from a month earlier (as of Oct. 14)<\/span><\/td>\nDown 22%<\/span><\/td>\nGoogle Trends<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Key housing-market data<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending October 15, 2023<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and\/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\nFour weeks ending October 15, 2023<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nNotes<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median sale price<\/b><\/td>\n$369,250<\/span><\/td>\n2.5%<\/span><\/td>\nPrices are up partly because elevated mortgage rates were hampering prices during this time last year<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median asking price<\/b><\/td>\n$385,048<\/span><\/td>\n5%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest increase in a year<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median monthly mortgage payment<\/b><\/td>\n$2,730 at a 7.57% mortgage rate<\/span><\/td>\n10%<\/span><\/td>\nJust $8 shy of the all-time high set two weeks earlier<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\n72,183<\/span><\/td>\n-8.4%<\/span><\/td>\nSmallest decline since May 2022, partly because pending sales fell rapidly at this time in 2022<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings<\/b><\/td>\n81,497<\/span><\/td>\n-1.9%<\/span><\/td>\nSmallest decline since July 2022<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Active listings<\/b><\/td>\n829,629<\/span><\/td>\n-13.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Months of supply\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n3.4 months<\/span><\/td>\n+0.2 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nHighest level since February.<\/span><\/p>\n

4 to 5 <\/span>months of supply<\/span><\/a> is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller\u2019s market conditions.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Share of homes off market in two weeks\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n39.1%<\/span><\/td>\nUp from 36%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median days on market<\/b><\/td>\n32<\/span><\/td>\n-3\u00a0 days<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes sold above list price<\/b><\/td>\n30.2%<\/span><\/td>\nUp from 29%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes with a price drop<\/b><\/td>\n6.7%<\/span><\/td>\nUnchanged<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average sale-to-list price ratio\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n99.2%<\/span><\/td>\n+0.3 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending October 15, 2023<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\nMetros with biggest year-over-year increases<\/b><\/td>\nMetros with biggest year-over-year decreases<\/b><\/td>\nNotes<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median sale price<\/b><\/td>\nAnaheim, CA (17.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

West Palm Beach, FL (12.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

New Brunswick, NJ (11.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Jose, CA (10.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Newark, NJ (10.6%)<\/td>\n

Austin, TX (-4.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Antonio, TX (-2.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Houston, TX (-2.3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

New York, NY (-1.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Jacksonville, FL (-1.1%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Declined in 9 metros (in 4 of those metros, the decline was smaller that 1%)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\nOrlando, FL (9.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

West Palm Beach, FL (9.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Las Vegas, NV (4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Jacksonville, FL (3.3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Milwaukee, WI (2.9%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Portland, OR (-25.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Sacramento, CA (-20.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Houston, TX (-18.3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Virginia Beach, VA (-18%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Newark, NJ (-17.7%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Declined in all but 9 metros<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings<\/b><\/td>\nOrlando, FL (19.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Miami, FL (15.3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

West Palm Beach, FL (13.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Fort Lauderdale, FL (10.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Jacksonville, FL (9.7%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Atlanta (-27.3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Houston (-22.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Nassau County, NY (-15.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Portland, OR (-14.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Columbus, OH (-14.4%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Increased in 12 metros<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Refer to our <\/span>metrics definition page<\/span><\/a> for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Redfin economists say this is likely to be the slowest sales year since the Great Recession as persistently high mortgage rates and low inventory spook buyers.\u00a0 This year is likely to end with roughly 4.1 million existing home sales nationwide, the fewest since the housing bubble burst in 2008 after the subprime mortgage crisis.\u00a0 What […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":76933,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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