{"id":77047,"date":"2023-11-09T05:30:52","date_gmt":"2023-11-09T13:30:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=77047"},"modified":"2023-11-08T15:07:37","modified_gmt":"2023-11-08T23:07:37","slug":"housing-market-update-falling-mortgage-rates-reduce-payments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-falling-mortgage-rates-reduce-payments\/","title":{"rendered":"Housing Market Update: It\u2019s the Best Time to Buy Since Mid-September, As Mortgage Rates Fall and Sellers Drop Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mortgage-purchase applications are up 3% week over week as homebuyers act on a few pieces of buyer-friendly news: Mortgage rates have dropped from 8% to 7.4% in the last few weeks, there are more homes for sale than there have been all year, and price drops are at a record high.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Mortgage rates are falling quickly, dropping from a two-decade high of 8% to <\/span>7.4%<\/span><\/a> in the last three weeks. A series of macro-economic events and indicators helped bring rates down last week: The Fed <\/span>decided against<\/span><\/a> another interest-rate hike, the Treasury announced plans to issue less long-term debt than expected and the job market is growing <\/span>slower than expected<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Buyers should consider locking in a mortgage rate now<\/h3>\n

Redfin economists recommend that serious homebuyers consider locking in a mortgage now, while average rates sit at their lowest level since mid-September. That\u2019s because while rates could continue their downward trend, it\u2019s also possible they will increase soon. The trend could reverse if this month\u2019s economic news goes the other way; for instance, rates could increase if the November 14 CPI report shows higher-than-expected inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Though rates are more than double pandemic-era levels and some homebuyers are still priced out of the market, rates going from 8% to 7.4% shaves a few hundred dollars off a monthly mortgage payment in many areas. A homebuyer in Seattle, for instance, would pay <\/span>$4,984<\/span><\/a> per month for the median-priced home ($775,000) with a 7.4% mortgage rate, compared to $5,240 with an 8% rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m advising buyers to lock in a mortgage rate as soon as they drop to a number where they can make the math work,\u201d said Seattle Redfin Premier agent Hal Bennett<\/a>. \u201cPayments could go up hundreds of dollars overnight if the winds shift on mortgage rates, and all of a sudden you won\u2019t be able to afford the home you want or you won\u2019t qualify for a mortgage. This window of opportunity could be narrow.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Buyers are already taking note: Mortgage-purchase applications are <\/span>up 3%<\/span><\/a> week over week.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

New listings rise, price drops hit record high<\/h3>\n

There are a few other glimmers of hope emerging for buyers, too. While inventory remains low, there has been an unseasonal uptick in the total number of homes for sale, which is at its highest level since the start of the year. New listings rose 1.5% from a year ago during the four weeks ending November 5, just the second increase since July 2022.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, nearly 7% of home sellers dropped their asking price\u2013the highest portion on record. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0Leading indicators<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nValue (if applicable)<\/b><\/td>\nRecent change<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nSource<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n7.41% (Nov. 8)<\/span><\/td>\nDown from 7.88% a week earlier<\/span><\/td>\nUp from 7.25%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage News Daily\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/b><\/td>\n7.76% (week ending Nov. 2)<\/span><\/td>\nDown slightly from 7.79% a week earlier; still near highest level in 23 years<\/span><\/td>\nUp from 7.08%<\/span><\/td>\nFreddie Mac<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nUp 3% from a week earlier (as of week ending Nov. 3)<\/span><\/td>\nDown 20%<\/span><\/td>\nMortgage Bankers Association<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nDown 5% from a month earlier (as of the week ending Nov. 5)\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nDown 5%<\/span><\/td>\nRedfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Google searches for \u201chome for sale\u201d<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nDown 7% from a month earlier (as of Nov. 4)<\/span><\/td>\nDown 21%<\/span><\/td>\nGoogle Trends<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Touring activity<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\nDown 22% from the start of the year (as of Nov. 2)<\/span><\/td>\nAt this time last year, it was down 31% from the start of 2022<\/span><\/td>\nShowingTime<\/span><\/a>, a home touring technology company<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Key housing-market data<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending November 5, 2023<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and\/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\nFour weeks ending November 5, 2023<\/b><\/td>\nYear-over-year change<\/b><\/td>\nNotes<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median sale price<\/b><\/td>\n$368,500<\/span><\/td>\n3.7%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest increase in a year. Prices are up partly because elevated mortgage rates were hampering prices during this time last year<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median asking price<\/b><\/td>\n$379,725<\/span><\/td>\n4.9%<\/span><\/td>\nBiggest increase in over a year<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median monthly mortgage payment<\/b><\/td>\n$2,732 at a 7.76% mortgage rate<\/span><\/td>\n11%<\/span><\/td>\n$8 shy of all-time high set 2 weeks earlier<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\n67,446<\/span><\/td>\n-9%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings<\/b><\/td>\n77,821<\/span><\/td>\n1.5%<\/span><\/td>\nSecond year-over-year increase since July 2022. The increase is partly because new listings were falling at this time last\u00a0 year.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Active listings<\/b><\/td>\n863,500<\/span><\/td>\n-9.4%<\/span><\/td>\nSmallest decline since July. At their highest level since the start of 2023.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Months of supply\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n3.6 months<\/span><\/td>\n+0.2 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n4 to 5 <\/span>months of supply<\/span><\/a> is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller\u2019s market conditions.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes off market in two weeks\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n36.8%<\/span><\/td>\nUp from 33%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median days on market<\/b><\/td>\n34<\/span><\/td>\n-2\u00a0 days<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes sold above list price<\/b><\/td>\n29%<\/span><\/td>\nUp from 27%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of homes with a price drop<\/b><\/td>\n6.8%<\/span><\/td>\n+0.1 pt.<\/span><\/td>\nRecord high (tied with previous week)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average sale-to-list price ratio\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n99%<\/span><\/td>\n+0.4 pts.\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nLowest level since April<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending November 5, 2023<\/b><\/p>\n

Redfin\u2019s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\nMetros with biggest year-over-year increases<\/b><\/td>\nMetros with biggest year-over-year decreases<\/b><\/td>\nNotes<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Median sale price<\/b><\/td>\nNewark, NJ (14.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Anaheim, CA (12.3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

San Diego, CA (11.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Cincinnati, OH (11.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

New Brunswick, NJ (10.8%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Austin, TX (-5.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Fort Worth, TX (-2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Tampa, FL (-0.9%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Portland, OR (-0.6%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Declined in 4 metros\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pending sales<\/b><\/td>\nLas Vegas (3.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Anaheim, CA (1.1%)\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n

San Antonio, TX (-26.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Portland, OR (-21.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Sacramento, CA (-19.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Virginia Beach, VA (-17.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Seattle (-17.2%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Declined in all but 2 metros<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New listings<\/b><\/td>\nSan Jose, CA (17.8%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Phoenix (16.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Tampa, FL (10.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n

West Palm Beach, FL (9.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Montgomery County, PA (7.9%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Atlanta (-20.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Portland, OR (-16.7%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Seattle (-12.3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Newark, NJ (-10.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Providence, RI (-9.8%)<\/span><\/td>\n

Declined in roughly half the metros<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Refer to our <\/span>metrics definition page<\/span><\/a> for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Mortgage-purchase applications are up 3% week over week as homebuyers act on a few pieces of buyer-friendly news: Mortgage rates have dropped from 8% to 7.4% in the last few weeks, there are more homes for sale than there have been all year, and price drops are at a record high.\u00a0 Mortgage rates are falling […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":77061,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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