{"id":77310,"date":"2024-01-05T10:30:09","date_gmt":"2024-01-05T18:30:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=77310"},"modified":"2024-01-05T10:30:09","modified_gmt":"2024-01-05T18:30:09","slug":"latest-jobs-data-makes-march-rate-cut-slightly-less-likely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/latest-jobs-data-makes-march-rate-cut-slightly-less-likely\/","title":{"rendered":"Latest Jobs Data Makes March Rate Cut Slightly Less Likely"},"content":{"rendered":"

A look below the surface reveals a less-hot picture of the late-2023 labor market than the hot December jobs headline suggests. The latest jobs report is unlikely to impact mortgage rates much.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

On the surface, the <\/span>December jobs report<\/span><\/a> appears to be a hot dataset that should cause interest rates to increase and make the Fed less likely to cut in at their March meeting than financial markets expected. However, the details under the hood paint a muddy picture.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

More jobs were created in December and wages increased faster than expected.<\/b> Additionally, the unemployment rate didn\u2019t increase as expected, but that was largely because fewer people were searching for jobs, not because of greater job creation. This all points to a robust labor market.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, October and November payroll employment numbers were both revised down. There were a combined 71,000 fewer jobs in those months than we previously thought, making them look substantially weaker. Combine that with this week\u2019s news of weaker-than-expected <\/span>job openings data<\/span><\/a> in November, and <\/span>the labor market looks a bit more fragile.<\/b><\/p>\n

Rates shot up on this morning\u2019s release, but have subsequently retraced much, if not all, of the initial reaction as people digested the details. Short-term and long-term rates have been bouncing around as investors try to understand this complicated report.<\/span><\/p>\n

This morning\u2019s report slightly decreases the odds of the Fed cutting interest rates in March<\/b>\u2013that\u2019s the key date markets are focused on right now. But there is much data to come before that. We\u2019re looking ahead to Thursday\u2019s inflation report for December, as well as a couple more employment and inflation reports. Not to mention the Fed meeting at the end of January, where they are still relatively certain to hold steady.<\/span><\/p>\n

For homebuyers, this jobs report is unlikely to move mortgage rates much.<\/b> The weekly average mortgage rate was flat this week from last week, and it\u2019ll probably hold steady at just above <\/span>6.6%<\/span><\/a> next week, too. Longer term, mortgage rates should decline more if and when a March rate cut from the Fed becomes more certain\u2013and this report makes that possibility only slightly less likely. <\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A look below the surface reveals a less-hot picture of the late-2023 labor market than the hot December jobs headline suggests. The latest jobs report is unlikely to impact mortgage rates much.\u00a0 On the surface, the December jobs report appears to be a hot dataset that should cause interest rates to increase and make the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":77311,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[36,623],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-77310","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nA look below the surface reveals a less-hot picture of the late-2023 labor market than the hot December jobs headline suggests. 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