{"id":77347,"date":"2024-01-11T08:16:58","date_gmt":"2024-01-11T16:16:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=77347"},"modified":"2024-01-11T08:16:58","modified_gmt":"2024-01-11T16:16:58","slug":"december-inflation-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/december-inflation-report\/","title":{"rendered":"December\u2019s Inflation Report Unlikely to Impact Mortgage Rates"},"content":{"rendered":"

Consumer prices rose slightly more than expected to close 2023, but the news shouldn\u2019t move mortgage rates much or impact the overall housing market.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

The December <\/b>CPI report<\/b><\/a> is unlikely to have much of an impact on financial markets or mortgage rates.<\/b> Consumer prices rose slightly more than expected in December, but not enough to change expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates several times in 2024. And there\u2019s plenty of time for additional economic datasets to come in before the Fed\u2019s March 20 meeting. That will be the first Fed meeting of the year for which the outcome remains uncertain;\u00a0 the next Fed meeting is in January, but markets are almost certain they\u2019ll hold interest rates steady then.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Overall inflation came in slightly hot, but core CPI was mostly in line with expectations. <\/b>Overall inflation increased more than expected in December, and by more than it did in November: Consumer prices rose 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year, compared with increases of 0.1% and 3.1%, respectively, in November. But because the volatility of gas prices makes overall CPI a poor measure of underlying inflation, we focus more on core CPI, which strips away fuel and food prices. December\u2019s core CPI came in at 0.3% month over month and 3.9% year over year, similar to November\u2019s readings and in line with expectations.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Shelter inflation is likely to fall in the coming months, bringing core CPI down.<\/b> These numbers are a little disappointing after the rapid deceleration of core CPI in late 2023. The main barrier to CPI falling more quickly toward the Fed\u2019s 2% goal is shelter, which accounted for more than half of December\u2019s total increase in inflation. Shelter inflation rose 0.5% from the month before, faster than expected. However, <\/span>rent prices<\/span><\/a> for new leases consistently came in flat or fell during the end of 2023, suggesting there\u2019s much more room for shelter inflation to come down. That means inflation is very likely to continue declining this year, even if we hit some bumps.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Financial markets are laser-focused on the Fed\u2019s March 20 meeting\u2013and this inflation report will be in the rearview mirror by then.<\/b> Investors are pricing in an interest-rate cut at that meeting, even though Fed officials have expressed skepticism that they\u2019ll actually cut rates at that meeting. The December inflation report makes the Fed a little less likely to cut in March\u2013but not much. The Fed will have time to digest two more inflation reports and several other economic datasets by then.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This inflation report shouldn\u2019t impact homebuyers or sellers.<\/b> Yields on 10-year treasuries rose a few basis points when this morning\u2019s inflation news came out, but they\u2019ve almost fully retreated. Mortgage rates typically follow 10-year treasury yields. Overall, today\u2019s news is unlikely to impact mortgage rates or the housing-market outlook, and shouldn\u2019t change the picture for homebuyers or sellers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Consumer prices rose slightly more than expected to close 2023, but the news shouldn\u2019t move mortgage rates much or impact the overall housing market.\u00a0 The December CPI report is unlikely to have much of an impact on financial markets or mortgage rates. Consumer prices rose slightly more than expected in December, but not enough to 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