{"id":77406,"date":"2024-01-30T05:00:29","date_gmt":"2024-01-30T13:00:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=77406"},"modified":"2024-01-29T11:06:47","modified_gmt":"2024-01-29T19:06:47","slug":"housing-san-francisco-migration-q4-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-san-francisco-migration-q4-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"San Francisco Is Coming Back: Homebuyers are Leaving the Bay Area at Half the Pandemic-Era Rate"},"content":{"rendered":"

Far fewer homebuyers are leaving the Bay Area as life returns to pre-pandemic norms, with many tech companies requiring in-person work and the novelty of less expensive inland areas fading.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

The Bay Area had a net outflow of 26,000 homebuyers in the fourth quarter, down 13% year over year and down by a factor of two from September 2021, when moves away from the Bay Area peaked amid the pandemic-driven remote work boom. The rate of buyers leaving the Bay Area has slowed over the last two years as tech employees <\/span>return<\/span><\/a> to the office and San Francisco <\/span>comes back to life<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

This data is based on the searches of about 2 million Redfin.com users who viewed for-sale homes online across more than 100 metro areas from October 2023 to December 2023. Redfin\u2019s records go back through 2017; this data is subject to revision.\u00a0 Scroll down for the full methodology. This report focuses solely on the Bay Area, which we define as the\u00a0 San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland combined statistical area.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf San Francisco could talk, it would quote Mark Twain: \u2018The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated,\u2019\u201d said Ali Mafi<\/a>, a San Francisco Redfin Premier agent. \u201cThe news says it\u2019s a ghost town, but restaurant reservations at foodie hotspots are impossible to get, and Dolores Park is packed on the weekend with residents and tourists. With the big boom in AI and many tech companies requiring in-person work, San Francisco is as alive as ever. Homes are getting multiple offers, and I see the market getting more competitive as the year goes on.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Bay Area drops to second on list of places homebuyers are leaving<\/h3>\n

The Bay Area came in second to Los Angeles on the list of metros homebuyers looked to leave in the fourth quarter. That marks the first quarter in over two years the Bay Area has dropped out of the number-one spot. This is determined by net outflow, a measure of how many more homebuyers are looking to leave a metro than move in.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Bay Area\u2019s slowing net outflow is due partly to local residents staying put. At the height of the pandemic, many homebuyers\u2013especially remote tech workers\u2013moved away in favor of more affordable inland areas like Sacramento and Austin, TX where they could get more bang for their buck. That\u2019s not happening as much anymore, largely because major tech companies like Apple, Google and Meta are requiring workers to be in the office. The flow of homebuyers moving from the Bay Area to both Sacramento and Austin fell about 25% year over year in the fourth quarter.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, home prices have come down slightly, perhaps helping some people afford to buy in the area: The median sale price in San Francisco is still nearly $1.3 million, but that\u2019s near its lowest level since early 2019.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Methodology<\/h3>\n

Our migration analysis is based on about two million Redfin.com users who viewed for-sale homes online across more than 100 metro areas from October 2023 to December 2023. To measure the share of homebuyers looking to relocate from one metro to another, we calculate the portion of overall home searchers that are migrants.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A Redfin.com user counts as a migrant if they viewed at least 10 for-sale homes in the relevant three-month period and at least one of those homes was outside their home metro area. For instance, if a Redfin.com user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> views 10 homes in a three-month period and all of them are in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a>, that user counts as a full migrant to <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a>. If a user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> views 10 homes in a three-month period and five are in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a> but five are in <\/span>San Diego<\/span><\/a>, that user counts as half of a migrant to <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a> and half of a migrant to <\/span>San Diego<\/span><\/a>. If a user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> views 10 homes in a three-month period, nine in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> and one in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a>, that user counts as one-tenth of a migrant to <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The analysis includes combined statistical areas with at least 500 Redfin.com users based in that region and at least 500 users searching for homes in that region. For instance, a user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> searching for a home in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a> counts toward the first condition, a user based in <\/span>Phoenix<\/span><\/a> searching for a home in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> counts toward the second condition, and a user based in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> searching for a home in <\/span>Seattle<\/span><\/a> counts toward both. Redfin\u2019s migration data goes back to 2017.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Far fewer homebuyers are leaving the Bay Area as life returns to pre-pandemic norms, with many tech companies requiring in-person work and the novelty of less expensive inland areas fading.\u00a0 The Bay Area had a net outflow of 26,000 homebuyers in the fourth quarter, down 13% year over year and down by a factor of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":77408,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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For more information about working with a Redfin real estate agent to buy or sell a home, visit our Why Redfin page.","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/dana-andersonredfin-com\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77406","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13153"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77406"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77406\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77408"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77406"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77406"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77406"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=77406"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}