{"id":77439,"date":"2024-02-02T10:11:01","date_gmt":"2024-02-02T18:11:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=77439"},"modified":"2024-02-02T13:04:47","modified_gmt":"2024-02-02T21:04:47","slug":"january-jobs-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/january-jobs-report\/","title":{"rendered":"January\u2019s Hot Jobs Report Is Good and Bad For Homebuyers: Strong Labor Market Puts Money in Pockets, But Props Up Mortgage Rates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The latest jobs report came in stronger than expected. Together with the Fed press conference and news from the U.S. Treasury this past Wednesday, this week&#8217;s economic news is a wash for mortgage rates: They&#8217;re ending the week where they started.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.htm\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">January jobs report<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> came in with monster numbers. Although there are some statistical issues that cast doubt on the total accuracy of the numbers, the report still tells us that the labor market remains strong, and was even stronger last year than economists previously thought. That\u2019s positive for homebuyers because it means more Americans have more money in their pockets\u2013but negative because it pushes up mortgage rates.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The numbers: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The U.S. economy gained 353,000 jobs last month, compared with 185,000 expected. November and December 2023 data also revised up. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7% instead of ticking up to 3.8%, which was expected. Hourly wages grew much faster than anticipated: 0.6% month over month (versus 0.3% expected) and 4.5% year over year (versus 4.1% expected).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Why there\u2019s some doubt about the accuracy of these numbers: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The total jobs number is likely inflated due to issues with January\u2019s seasonal adjustment, which is the process that adjusts the real number for expected seasonal patterns to compare one month\u2019s numbers with another month\u2019s numbers. Before the pandemic, retailers hired a lot of workers during the holidays and laid them off in January, so seasonal adjustment accounts for that. In the post-pandemic era, the shift away from brick-and-mortar retail makes it so the seasonal adjustment typically overstate January\u2019s job gains because it\u2019s expecting a big decline that\u2019s actually much smaller. We saw the same outsized job gains in January 2023; February 2023 saw much smaller gains. Additionally, hourly wages came in higher than expected partly because the average workweek unexpectedly declined by 0.2 hours, which mechanically pushes up wages. Data this week from a more reliable estimate, the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/eci.nr0.htm\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">employment cost index<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, shows wage growth falling.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even accounting for those data concerns, the jobs report clearly shows an incredibly resilient labor market that\u2019s far from a recession.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Why a strong job market is both good and bad for the housing market: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">More people with more jobs earning more money is positive: It means more Americans can afford to buy homes and make monthly payments. It could also lead to more listings by encouraging some homeowners to sell and move up to a better house. On the flip side, a strong job market also has certain implications in this inflationary era: It implies slightly higher mortgage rates for longer, as the Fed tries to tame the economy and prevent inflation from rising again.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What this means for the Fed: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Fed is still likely to cut interest rates this year because inflation is showing signs of coming close to the target range. But this jobs report underscores what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a press conference earlier this week: A rate cut in March is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/fed-press-conference-january-2024\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">unlikely<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and this report makes it even less likely. Financial markets are now pricing the odds of a March rate cut at less than 20%, down from 33% after Wednesday\u2019s Fed press conference. Additionally, 10-year treasury yields are up about 16 bps. That erases the drops from earlier this week that resulted from the U.S. Treasury saying they wouldn\u2019t increase the supply of long term bonds. In the end, this week\u2019s economic news is a wash for rates. There was some rate volatility this week, but we\u2019re ending the week where we started.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Final takeaway for homebuyers: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mortgage rates are unlikely to meaningfully increase or fall in the next several months. This isn\u2019t the year to try to time the housing market for financial gain; it\u2019s the year to buy and\/or sell a home if it makes sense for your personal circumstances.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The latest jobs report came in stronger than expected. Together with the Fed press conference and news from the U.S. Treasury this past Wednesday, this week&#8217;s economic news is a wash for mortgage rates: They&#8217;re ending the week where they started. The January jobs report came in with monster numbers. Although there are some statistical [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":77440,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[632],"tags":[36,20,623],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-77439","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics","tag-housing-affordability","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>January\u2019s Hot Jobs Report Is Good and Bad For Homebuyers: Strong Labor Market Puts Money in Pockets, But Props Up Mortgage Rates - Redfin Real Estate News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The latest jobs report came in stronger than expected. 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She started her career at the White House Council of Economic Advisers, where she focused on labor and health economics.","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/chen-zhao\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77439","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13558"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77439"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77439\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77440"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77439"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77439"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77439"},{"taxonomy":"dashboard","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/dashboard?post=77439"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=77439"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}