{"id":78212,"date":"2024-07-16T05:00:15","date_gmt":"2024-07-16T12:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78212"},"modified":"2024-10-03T12:54:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-03T19:54:00","slug":"swing-state-housing-affordability-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/swing-state-housing-affordability-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"In Swing States, Typical Homebuyer\u2019s Monthly Payment Has Nearly Doubled Since The Last Presidential Election"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Swing-state housing payments have nearly doubled since the 2020 election, as home prices and mortgage rates have soared.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To look at affordability another way, the typical swing-state home has gone from affordable to unaffordable for the typical family since the 2020 election. The typical family would spend 33% of their earnings to afford the median-priced home in a swing state; back in 2020, they would have spent 22% of their earnings.<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Just over one-third of all homes listed for sale in swing states so far this year were affordable to a household earning the median income, down from two-thirds in 2020.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Broken down by race, a family earning the median swing-state income for Black households would spend nearly half of their earnings on the typical home, up from one-third of their earnings in 2020. The typical swing-state home is just barely affordable to white families.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The median monthly housing payment for homebuyers in swing states has nearly doubled since the 2020 presidential election, rising 92% to an all-time high of $2,161, as both home prices and mortgage rates have soared.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This report is based on a Redfin analysis of housing-market data and incomes for blue (Democratic-leaning), red (Republican-leaning) and swing states, from 2016-2024. The data is annual for 2016-2023; the 2024 data includes January through May.\u00a0 Please see the end of this report for more on methodology.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Housing costs have also skyrocketed in red and blue states since 2020: Homebuyers\u2019 median housing payment has risen 95% to a record $2,066 in red states and 83% to a record $3,311 in blue states. This report focuses on swing states because voters in those states will decide the winner of the 2024 presidential election, and housing affordability\u2013or lack thereof\u2013is a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-affordability-election-2024\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">crucial issue<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> on voters\u2019 minds. We consider this year\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/25\/upshot\/introducing-2024-poll-tracker.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">swing states<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to be Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-78213 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/unnamed-10.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"616\" height=\"479\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/unnamed-10.png 616w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/unnamed-10-300x233.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 616px) 100vw, 616px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The median home-sale price in swing states have increased nearly 40% over that period, reaching a record high of $316,063 in 2024. The average mortgage rate is currently <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/pmms\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">6.89%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, more than double the record low of 2.65% at the start of 2021\u2014intensifying affordability challenges even further.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Typical swing-state home has gone from affordable to unaffordable for the average family since the 2020 election<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The steep increase in prices and mortgage rates has made the median-priced home ($316,063) unaffordable to the typical swing-state resident, using the rule of thumb that a household should spend no more than 30% of their income on monthly housing costs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A household earning the median swing-state income ($79,155) would spend 32.8% of their earnings to afford the typical home; back in 2020, that same household would have had to spend a much smaller share of their income (21.8%) on the typical home.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The affordability trajectory in red states has been very similar to that of swing states. A household earning the median red-state income would spend 32.9% of their income on the median-priced home, up from 21.4% in 2020. In blue states, a household earning the median income would spend 41.3% of their income on the median-priced home, up from 28.6% in 2020.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-78214 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/unnamed-11.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"617\" height=\"517\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/unnamed-11.png 617w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/unnamed-11-300x251.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 617px) 100vw, 617px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A swing-state family must earn $86,421 if they want to spend no more than 30% of their income on payments for the median-priced home. That\u2019s nearly double the $45,140 they needed to earn in 2020.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Just one-third of swing-state listings are affordable to the typical family, down from two-thirds in 2020<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To look at affordability another way, just over one-third (35.1%) of all homes listed for sale in swing states so far this year were affordable to a household earning the median income, down from two-thirds (65.5%) in 2020.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In red states, just over one-third (36.6%) of listings are affordable on the median income, down from 69% in 2020. In blue states, just one-quarter (25.2%) of homes are affordable on the median income, down from half (50%) in 2020.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-78215 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/unnamed-12.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"615\" height=\"468\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/unnamed-12.png 615w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/unnamed-12-300x228.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 615px) 100vw, 615px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Housing affordability is a major factor in this year\u2019s presidential election<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">More than <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/gen-z-housing-affordability-important-vote\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">nine in 10<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> adult Gen Zers say housing affordability is important when deciding who to vote for in the upcoming presidential election, making it a top issue for voters of that generation, according to a Redfin-commissioned survey fielded in February. While several other topics have since risen to the forefront of election news\u2013including President Biden\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/27\/us\/politics\/biden-debate-democrats.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">age<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, an <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/07\/14\/us\/politics\/shooting-trump-rally.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">assassination attempt<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> at a rally for Donald Trump and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2024\/07\/15\/us\/trump-rnc-news-biden\">announcement<\/a> of Trump\u2019s running mate\u2013housing affordability is a mainstay in politics because it directly impacts nearly everyone in the country. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cVoters in swing states care about housing affordability because soaring home prices and mortgage rates, along with a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-sales-fall-to-near-record-low\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">shortage<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of homes for sale, have made homeownership <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/renters-becoming-homeowners-2024\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">feel impossible<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for some Americans. That\u2019s especially true for young people who are earning low incomes and haven\u2019t yet built up their savings, making them feel it would be an uphill battle to reach their parents\u2019 level of financial success,\u201d said Redfin Senior Economist <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/elijah-delacampa\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Elijah de la Campa<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0 \u201cWhile swing states have historically had lower housing costs than blue states\u2013and most still do\u2013markets in swing states have not been immune to the affordability crunch the country has been facing for the last several years. The inability to afford a home is making a lot of voters <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-affordability-election-2024\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">feel bad<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> about the economy and their financial prospects.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The flip slide of rising housing costs is that it also means home values are rising, which is a boon to homeowners\u2019 pocketbooks. The average U.S. homeowner has seen their home\u2019s value <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-value-december-2023\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">increase significantly<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> over the last several years, which means many of them are holding a lot of wealth via housing equity. Still, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/gen-z-housing-affordability-important-vote\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">at least 80%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of millennials, Gen Xers and baby boomers\u2013who are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/homeownership-rate-by-generation-2023\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">more likely<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than younger Americans to own a home\u2013said housing affordability will factor into their vote in the upcoming presidential election. That\u2019s partly because some people who already own homes would like to move up to a bigger or better home, but are unable to do so because the increase in housing costs has outpaced the increase in their equity, and because mortgage rates have risen so much they\u2019re reluctant to give up their low rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">President Biden has released a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/briefing-room\/statements-releases\/2024\/03\/07\/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-plan-to-lower-housing-costs-for-working-families\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">plan<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to lower housing costs. Donald Trump <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/how-donald-trump-plans-fix-housing-market-1811663\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">has said<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> he has a strategy to combat the expensive housing market.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Homes have become unaffordable in swing states\u2013and red and blue states\u2013 because housing costs have increased faster than incomes<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Homes in swing states have gone from affordable to unaffordable because housing costs have increased more than three times faster than incomes. The estimated median household income in swing states is $79,155, up 28% from $62,019 in 2020. As stated above, the median monthly housing payment has risen 92% over that period.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Housing costs have skyrocketed faster than incomes mostly because of the pandemic-fueled homebuying frenzy: Remote work and ultra-low mortgage rates in 2020 and 2021 drove up demand, which pushed up prices. Homebuying demand was especially strong in Sun Belt swing states at the height of the pandemic: Phoenix, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Charlotte, NC, were all among the 10 U.S. metros that gained the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/homebuyer-migration-2021-rising-home-prices\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">most residents<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in 2021.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now, high mortgage rates and a shortage of homes for sale are driving up costs even more. The good news for aspiring homebuyers is that mortgage rates are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/july-2024-inflation-report\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">likely to decline<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> sometime this year, when the Fed starts cutting interest rates.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Typical Black family would have to spend half of their income to afford a home in swing states<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s more difficult for Black and Hispanic families to afford homes in swing states than it is for white and Asian families.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A family earning the median swing-state income for Black households would spend nearly half (48.2%) of their earnings to afford the typical home; back in 2020, that same household would have spent 32.7% on the typical home. The typical Hispanic family in a swing state would spend 38.3% of their income on the median-priced home, up from 26.8% in 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-78216 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/unnamed-13.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"616\" height=\"487\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/unnamed-13.png 616w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/unnamed-13-300x237.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 616px) 100vw, 616px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The typical home is affordable to median-earning white families in swing states, but just barely: They\u2019d spend 29.8% of their earnings on a home, up from 19.8% in 2020. Asian families would spend 24.8% of their income, up from 16.7% in 2020.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Black and Hispanic voters are set to be <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2024\/05\/11\/working-class-latino-black-voters-biden-trump\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">especially important<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in deciding how toss-up states vote this year. President Biden has seen his support among Black voters in swing states <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/elections\/4724965-just-over-half-of-black-voters-back-biden-in-two-swing-states-poll\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">decline<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> since 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Housing costs also increased substantially between the 2016 and 2020 elections<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This isn\u2019t the first time housing affordability has been <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-06-18\/housing-affordability-hits-the-2020-campaign-trail\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">an issue<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in a faceoff between Biden and Trump. Home prices had already soared in advance of the 2020 presidential election, partly because the pandemic housing boom had already begun.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The median home price in swing states increased 40% from 2016 to 2020. It increased by 27% in blue states, and 28% in red states.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Methodology<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This report is based on a Redfin analysis of housing-market data and incomes for blue (Democrat-leaning), red (Republican-leaning) and swing (could be either Democratic or Republican) states. We consider this year\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/25\/upshot\/introducing-2024-poll-tracker.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">swing states<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to be Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. We define blue states as the remaining states that voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election; red states are defined as the remaining set that voted for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The analysis includes data for 2016 through 2024. The data is annual for 2016-2023; 2024 includes January through May.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Median household incomes come from the U.S. Census Bureau\u2019s American Community Survey (ACS). <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Incomes for 2023 and 2024 are estimated using the ACS 2022 median household income and 12-month moving average nominal wage growth rates compiled from the Current Population Survey and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For this report, we use the average of yearly median household incomes for each group of states \u2013 red, blue and swing\u2013weighted by states\u2019 population.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Median home sale and list prices come from MLS data. We use the average of median monthly home sale and list prices for each year and group of states weighted by the monthly number of homes sold and active listings\u00a0 in each state, respectively. The mortgage rate used to calculate monthly housing payments is the same across the entire U.S, and is defined as the prevailing average mortgage interest rate for the month. Our affordability calculations use the weighted median home-sale and list prices and monthly mortgage rates, in addition to the assumption of a 15% down payment, and includes principal, interest, taxes and insurance. We consider a home \u201caffordable\u201d if a household would spend no more than 30% of their income on monthly housing costs at the for-sale price. We consider a listing \u201caffordable\u201d if a household would spend no more than 30% of their income on monthly housing costs at the list price. The share of listings considered affordable is defined as the number of affordable listings divided by the total number of active listings.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We use the words \u201chousehold\u201d and \u201cfamily\u201d interchangeably in this report.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Swing-state housing payments have nearly doubled since the 2020 election, as home prices and mortgage rates have soared.\u00a0 To look at affordability another way, the typical swing-state home has gone from affordable to unaffordable for the typical family since the 2020 election. The typical family would spend 33% of their earnings to afford the median-priced [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13153,"featured_media":78217,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[27,693,8],"tags":[20,623,19],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[124],"class_list":["post-78212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-affordability","category-election-2024","category-housing-market-news","tag-housing-affordability","tag-national","tag-politics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>In Swing States, Typical Homebuyer\u2019s Monthly Payment Has Nearly Doubled Since The Last Presidential Election<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"To look at affordability another way, the typical swing-state home has gone from affordable to unaffordable for the typical family since the 2020 election. 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