{"id":78222,"date":"2024-07-16T15:04:21","date_gmt":"2024-07-16T22:04:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78222"},"modified":"2024-07-16T15:05:15","modified_gmt":"2024-07-16T22:05:15","slug":"rent-cap-worsen-housing-affordability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/rent-cap-worsen-housing-affordability\/","title":{"rendered":"A Federal Cap on Rent Hikes Would Ultimately Make Housing Less Affordable"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The White House has proposed a national rent control policy, which sounds appealing in theory but would eventually increase costs for renters because it would exacerbate the supply shortage. If the policy were to go into effect now, it would impact some metros in the Northeast and Midwest\u2013like <\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Boston, Washington, D.C., Chicago and Minneapolis\u2013that are seeing rents rapidly rise.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The White House <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/briefing-room\/statements-releases\/2024\/07\/16\/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-major-new-actions-to-lower-housing-costs-by-limiting-rent-increases-and-building-more-homes\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">announced<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> a series of new actions aimed at housing affordability today, including:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Asking Congress to implement a 5% cap on rent increases for corporate landlords for existing units<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Repurposing some public land to build affordable housing units<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Distributing grants to rehabilitate distressed housing, build more affordable housing, and revitalize neighborhoods<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Caps on rent hikes are appealing politically to renters in the short term because they limit rent increases. But they only make housing affordability worse in the long term, because they exacerbate the supply shortage.<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The root of the housing affordability issue is a severe shortage of housing units. Estimates range from <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/research\/forecast\/20240516-economic-growth-moderated-start-year?utm_source=www.resiclubanalytics.com&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=u-s-housing-market-is-1-5-million-housing-units-below-a-balanced-market-finds-freddie-mac\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1.5 million<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jchs.harvard.edu\/blog\/estimating-national-housing-shortfall\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">5.5 million<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> or more. The best way to address the lack of affordability in both the for-sale and rental markets is to build more housing units.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For developers to be incentivized to build more housing, they need to feel like they would make a profit. If rent increases are capped below what supply and demand would otherwise dictate, then builders have little incentive to build more housing units.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The result of caps on rent increases is lower rent in the short term, but a worse housing shortage in the longer term, which would worsen affordability. Experiences like that of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/europe\/2021\/03\/09\/after-a-year-berlins-experiment-with-rent-control-is-a-failure\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Berlin, Germany<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> should be instructive for the U.S.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This proposal expressly carves out exceptions for landlords with fewer than 50 units (mom and pops), new construction, and instances where there was \u201csubstantial renovation or rehabilitation\u201d to address the disincentive for landlords to invest in building or renovating units. However, it does not specify how long the new construction exception is good for. After the first year, a newly constructed unit becomes an existing unit and is likely to fall under the rent cap rule.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Some may argue that the cap on rent hikes wouldn\u2019t be binding because nationwide rent growth is largely <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/rents-fall-in-florida-austin-june-2024\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">flat<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> right now. However, that overlooks metro-to-metro variation. Many metros in the Northeast and Midwest\u2013including Boston, Washington, D.C., Chicago and Minneapolis\u2013are experiencing rent growth greater than 5% year over year. And national rent growth vastly exceeded 5% recently during the pandemic.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>The other proposals aimed at increasing housing supply in this announcement only nibble at the edges, but are a step in the right direction. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">President Biden\u2019s other proposals, which include using federal land to build more housing units and giving grants to communities to build them, should help increase supply. But they don\u2019t go far enough to entirely solve the supply problem because they wouldn\u2019t create enough new units. The federal government could make a much bigger difference if it were to pressure localities to allow for denser housing. That pressure can be applied by tying federal funding to local regulation, similar to how the rent cap proposal is structured.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The White House has proposed a national rent control policy, which sounds appealing in theory but would eventually increase costs for renters because it would exacerbate the supply shortage. If the policy were to go into effect now, it would impact some metros in the Northeast and Midwest\u2013like Boston, Washington, D.C., Chicago and Minneapolis\u2013that are [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":78223,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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Zhao","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg83fdc0124d9fcdfe5e5d8583a850a63f","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Chen_Zhao-150x150.jpg","caption":"Chen Zhao"},"description":"Chen Zhao is the head of economics research, where she produces research on the housing market for public and internal audiences. Previously, she was an executive director leading housing finance and financial markets research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute. Prior to joining JPMCI, Chen was an economics consultant at Analysis Group, Inc., where she worked on financial litigation cases and led teams conducting health economics and outcomes research on behalf of pharmaceutical companies. While in graduate school, Chen was with the Center for Economic Studies and the Social Economic and Housing Statistics Division at the US Census Bureau, where she conducted applied microeconomics research using large scale restricted-access linked survey-administrative data. She started her career at the White House Council of Economic Advisers, where she focused on labor and health economics.","url":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/chen-zhao\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78222","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13558"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78222"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78222\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78223"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78222"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78222"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78222"},{"taxonomy":"dashboard","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/dashboard?post=78222"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=78222"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}