{"id":78278,"date":"2024-07-29T11:44:34","date_gmt":"2024-07-29T18:44:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78278"},"modified":"2024-10-03T12:53:22","modified_gmt":"2024-10-03T19:53:22","slug":"potential-trump-presidency-housing-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/potential-trump-presidency-housing-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Here\u2019s What a Second Trump Presidency Could Mean For the Housing Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Donald Trump has said he wants to lower mortgage rates and loosen building regulations, which would make homes more affordable and increase supply. Several of his other stances would also impact housing affordability; for instance, his policies could slow immigration\u2013which would slow homebuilding\u2013and increase tariffs, which would result in higher rates.\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Housing affordability\u2013or lack thereof\u2013is an <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/gen-z-housing-affordability-important-vote\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">important topic<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for voters in the upcoming presidential election, and it will be a major issue for the next administration. While Donald Trump has acknowledged that housing affordability is a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/features\/2024-trump-interview-transcript\/?sref=fRZXrT1O\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">big problem<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, he has put forth limited details on his plans to tackle the issue.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump has said he wants to lower mortgage rates and reduce barriers to build new housing to improve housing affordability. But some of his stances could do the opposite: Trump\u2019s proposed tariff hikes could be inflationary and ultimately push mortgage rates up, and cutting back on immigration could lead to a slowdown in residential construction. Under a second Trump administration, housing would likely become more expensive and more would-be buyers would be sidelined. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>These are the specific ideas Trump has pointed to, according to a Bloomberg <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/features\/2024-trump-interview-transcript\/?sref=fRZXrT1O\"><b>interview<\/b><\/a><b> and his <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/538\/heard-economy-immigration-foreign-policy-rnc\/story?id=112179494\"><b>RNC address<\/b><\/a><b>, to address housing affordability:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Lower mortgage rates<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump sometimes hints that he would pressure the Fed to cut interest rates. But the Fed is politically independent, and it would be very difficult to alter that structure,, though some informal Trump advisers have leaked a drafted <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/economy\/central-banking\/trump-allies-federal-reserve-independence-54423c2f\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">plan<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Since then, Trump has said he would let Fed Chairman Jerome Powell <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/features\/2024-trump-interview-transcript\/?sref=fRZXrT1O\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">finish his term<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (it expires in 2026) if he agrees with Powell\u2019s decisions. Any breach of the Fed\u2019s independence would have disastrous consequences for the U.S. economy in the long run.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump\u2019s plan to address high mortgage rates is to boost domestic energy production in order to cut energy prices and lower inflation. In actuality, energy prices are volatile and the Fed purposely excludes energy costs when assessing underlying inflationary pressure. Although energy costs can affect the prices of other goods and services, energy itself\u00a0 was not the primary cause of high inflation over the past few years. The primary <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/what-caused-the-u-s-pandemic-era-inflation\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">drivers<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> were supply chain issues, the war in Ukraine, a shift in consumer preferences during the pandemic and pandemic-era fiscal stimulus.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Reduce regulatory barriers to building new housing, which would increase supply and dampen price growth<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are many regulatory barriers to building new housing, including zoning regulations, cost of permits and the cost of building according to regulations.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The National Association of Home Builders <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nahb.org\/-\/media\/NAHB\/news-and-economics\/docs\/housing-economics-plus\/special-studies\/2021\/special-study-government-regulation-in-the-price-of-a-new-home-may-2021.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">estimates<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> those government-imposed regulations account for about 24% of the cost of building a home. But a lot of regulations are at the local level, where it is more difficult for the federal government to influence policy.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>These are some of the potential implications of a second Trump presidency on the housing market, from the standpoint of a housing economist:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Trump\u2019s proposed tariff increases would have an inflationary impact on the US, which would ultimately cause rates to be higher for longer<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump is proposing <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/06\/27\/us\/politics\/trump-trade-tariffs-imports.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">huge increases on tariffs<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> across the board (10% on all imports from all countries) and particularly on China (60% for all imports). If he is elected, there is a good chance these will be implemented quickly as the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ustr.gov\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">USTR<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> has broad discretion to modify tariffs, and President Trump\u2019s Commerce Department already did the investigations required to provide legal justification for modifying tariffs in his first term.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Goldman Sachs <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/trumps-tariff-plans-could-lead-to-five-extra-fed-rate-hikes-goldman-sachs-chief-economist-says-27f56a3b\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">estimates<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> this policy would increase inflation by 1.1 percentage points and therefore necessitate the Federal Funds rate be 130 bps (equivalent to 5 rate hikes from the Fed at 25 bps each). That would almost certainly drive mortgage rates substantially higher, though the precise increase is difficult to forecast.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>One cornerstone of Trump\u2019s overall plan should he become president is <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/11\/11\/us\/politics\/trump-2025-immigration-agenda.html\"><b>cutting back on immigration<\/b><\/a><b>, especially crossings at the southern border, which could lead to less residential construction\u00a0<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The recent immigration surge has been a key part of the labor market\u2019s surprising <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/new-immigration-estimates-help-make-sense-of-the-pace-of-employment\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">resilience<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the face of the Fed\u2019s aggressive rate hikes. Border crossings are already on the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/07\/16\/us\/politics\/biden-border-immigration.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">decline<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, but further declines under a second Trump administration would mean less labor supply, a weaker labor market, and less economic growth. Critically for housing, there would be much less labor supply for the construction industry. That means there would be less residential construction, which would put a cap on supply growth and perhaps push up home prices.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The initial impact on housing demand would be minimal, as recent immigrants tend to produce little housing demand because they are largely housed in public housing or with family and friends. In the medium to long term, however, more immigrants does mean more housing demand. The recent immigration surge under President Biden means there may be more housing demand in the medium term, but if there is less immigration under a potential Trump presidency, it would bring down housing demand a bit in the future.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Extending tax cuts passed in Trump\u2019s first term would also be a drag on the housing market by pushing down homebuying demand<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The TCJA (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017) is set to expire in 2024. While President Biden would let it expire if he were still president (unsure about Kamala Harris, the likely Democratic presidential nominee), Trump is likely to want to renew it.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Keeping those tax cuts could ultimately <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/econ.wisc.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/89\/2023\/03\/Lomonosov-Dena-TCJA-and-Residential-Housing.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">drag down demand<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in places with high taxes, which tend to be blue states, by:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Reducing the tax benefits of homeownership<\/span><\/i>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The TCJA doubles the standard deduction, which reduces the fraction taxpayers who itemize (and therefore benefit from deducting property taxes and interest on a home mortgage) from 30% to 13%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It also limits the interest deduction associated with having a mortgage to the first $750,000 in principal value, down from $1 million previously.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Finally, it limits state and local tax deductions (SALT deductions) to $10,000, which most adversely affects blue states with higher state and local taxes. If the TCJA expires in 2025, that adverse effect would go away.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pushing up mortgage rates<\/span><\/i>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"4\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The TCJA includes regressive tax cuts (more beneficial for higher income people). Extending these tax cuts beyond 2025 has been <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.taxpolicycenter.org\/briefing-book\/how-did-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-change-personal-taxes\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">estimated<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to cost $3 trillion over a decade and would most benefit those in the top 20% of the income distribution.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"4\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This would increase the federal deficit absent any offset in spending, necessitating greater issuance of Treasury bonds. That pushes up interest rates, including mortgage rates.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>On the other hand, the tax cuts could still help improve supply.\u00a0<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The TCJA also includes a provision about spurring economic growth and creating jobs in <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/opportunity-zone-5207933\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">opportunity zones<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which are economically distressed communities that need investment. One goal of opportunity zones was to spur affordable housing development by providing tax incentives. The jury is still out on how much opportunity zones have helped increase housing supply; there hasn&#8217;t yet been a definitive analysis.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Trump generally favors rolling back government regulations and interventions, which would mean mortgage lending has a smaller role in the housing market\u00a0<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In his first term, President Trump largely <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/business\/story\/2021-01-11\/column-cfpb-biden\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">gutted<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Trump even <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2017\/11\/27\/trump-pick-mulvaney-for-cfpb-at-work-despite-legal-challenge.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">appointed<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/omb\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">OMB<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> director to also serve as the CFPB director, in an attempt to curb the agency\u2019s oversight in protecting consumer interests on financial matters. If Trump adopts a similar stance in his second term, mortgage lending standards could become looser, which would increase demand for housing as homebuyers find it easier to get a mortgage. But it would also increase risk in the mortgage system, and to borrowers.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/49233-wsj-trump-administration-set-to-release-plan-on-fannie-freddie-privatization\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">advocated<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.novoco.com\/public-media\/documents\/gse_presidential_memo_032719.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">privatizing<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in his first term. If he pursues the same in a second term, that could result in higher mortgage rates if mortgage backed securities (MBs) are no longer seen as explicitly guaranteed by the federal government. The GSEs were brought under government conservatorship during the financial crisis.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Trump continues to favor less government intervention, like he did in his first term, it\u2019s likely that the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.justice.gov\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Department of Justice<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> would be less aggressive in <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/04\/05\/realestate\/doj-realtors-nar-inquiry.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">investigating broker fees<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than it has been under President Biden. The caveat is that we don\u2019t have precedent to draw on because broker fees were not an area of focus during Trump\u2019s first term.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump acknowledges that housing is too expensive and that he wants to bring down mortgage rates and boost new construction. But many of the housing and economic policies from his first term, some of which he has mentioned recently in speeches and interviews, would make housing more expensive because they would increase mortgage rates. Additionally, the best way to address housing affordability is to increase supply, and while Trump acknowledges one solution is to up inventory, he doesn\u2019t have a concrete plan to address it. Housing affordability would likely worsen if Trump were to become president again, which would drag down demand. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Donald Trump has said he wants to lower mortgage rates and loosen building regulations, which would make homes more affordable and increase supply. Several of his other stances would also impact housing affordability; for instance, his policies could slow immigration\u2013which would slow homebuilding\u2013and increase tariffs, which would result in higher rates.\u00a0 Housing affordability\u2013or lack thereof\u2013is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13558,"featured_media":78280,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[693,632],"tags":[36,623,19],"dashboard":[],"coauthors":[622],"class_list":["post-78278","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-election-2024","category-from-our-economists","tag-economics","tag-national","tag-politics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Here\u2019s What a Second Trump Presidency Could Mean For the Housing Market<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Donald Trump has said he wants to lower mortgage rates and loosen building regulations to increase supply. 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