{"id":78311,"date":"2024-08-05T03:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-05T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/?p=78311"},"modified":"2024-08-02T10:58:58","modified_gmt":"2024-08-02T17:58:58","slug":"climate-migration-real-estate-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/climate-migration-real-estate-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Thousands More People Are Moving In Than Out of Fire- and Flood-Prone America, Fueled by Migration to Texas and Florida"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong><i>America\u2019s high-fire-risk counties saw a net inflow of 63,000 people last year, driven by migration to Texas.\u00a0<\/i><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong><i>High-flood-risk counties saw a net inflow of 16,000, driven by migration to Florida.\u00a0<\/i><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong><i>Texas and Florida have attracted a lot of people in recent years because they offer low taxes, <\/i>relatively affordable housing prices and are building more homes than anywhere else in the nation.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong><i>Recent shifts in migration patterns in California and Florida may indicate that residents are becoming more responsive to climate risk. California\u2019s high-fire-risk areas, for example, saw more people leave than move in last year\u2014a reversal from 2022.\u00a0<\/i><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Scores of people are moving to the parts of America endangered by wildfires, flooding and extreme heat, even as those dangers become more frequent and intense.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">America\u2019s high-fire-risk counties saw 63,365 more people move in than out in 2023. Much of that net inflow was people moving to Texas. But the story differs from state to state; among California\u2019s high-fire-risk areas, more people left than moved in. That marks a reversal from 2022, indicating that people may be growing more responsive to fire risk in the Golden State.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The nation\u2019s high-flood-risk counties saw 16,144 more people move in than out. Florida drove a large share of the migration to high-flood-risk counties, but a smaller share than it did in 2022, indicating that people may be growing more responsive to flood risk in the Sunshine State.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-78313\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/main-climate-migration-chart-1-1024x709.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"554\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/main-climate-migration-chart-1-1024x709.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/main-climate-migration-chart-1-300x208.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/main-climate-migration-chart-1-768x532.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/main-climate-migration-chart-1-1536x1063.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/main-climate-migration-chart-1-2048x1418.png 1733w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/main-climate-migration-chart-1.png 1734w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The opposite occurred in low-risk areas; America\u2019s low-fire-risk counties saw a net <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">outflow<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of 38,401 people in 2023, and low-flood-risk counties experienced a net outflow of 6,892.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is based on a Redfin analysis of domestic migration data from the U.S. Census Bureau and climate-risk scores from <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/firststreet.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First Street<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Census migration data for 2023 covers July 2022-July 2023, and Census migration data for 2022 covers July 2021-July 2022. We define a high-risk county as one that ranks in the top 10% when it comes to the share of homes facing high fire or flood risk. For fire, this means counties with 62.4%-98.9% of homes facing high risk are counted as high-risk counties. For flood, it means counties with 24.2%-99.5% of homes facing high risk are high-risk counties. The remaining counties are referred to as low-risk counties. A net flow is the number of people who moved into an area minus the number of people who moved out. Climate risk scores are based on a property&#8217;s current risk as well as how that risk is expected to grow over the next 30 years.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cBallooning insurance costs and intensifying natural disasters are driving thousands of Americans out of risky areas, but those people are quickly being replaced by other people for whom climate change isn\u2019t the top concern,\u201d said Redfin Senior Economist <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/author\/elijah-delacampa\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Elijah de la Campa<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. \u201cFor a lot of Americans, things like cost of living and proximity to family take precedence over catastrophe risk, which can feel less immediate and more abstract. But the cost-benefit calculus seems to be shifting in places like California and Florida, where skyrocketing home insurance costs and an uptick in high-profile disasters have had a tangible impact on residents and made national news.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Roughly 1 in 11 (8.8%) people who plan to move soon cited concern for natural disasters or climate risks as a reason, according to a <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin-commissioned survey of roughly 3,000 U.S. homeowners and renters conducted by Qualtrics in February 2024. But other responses were much more common: Wanted more space (32.4%), lower cost of living (26.4%) and to be closer to family (16.4%), to name a few.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While this analysis primarily focuses on fire and flood risk, we also took a look at extreme heat. The trend is similar; high-heat-risk counties saw a net inflow of 271,413 people last year. We define a high-heat-risk county as one where 100% of homes face high risk. Inflow numbers are much higher for heat because there are so many counties where 100% of homes face high risk (910, to be exact; compared with zero for fire and flood risk).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong>A Lot of People Are Moving to Texas, Which Faces High Fire Risk<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Migration to fire-prone Texas fueled a significant portion of the national net inflow to high-fire-risk areas last year. Let\u2019s do the math:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A total of 97,535 people moved into high-fire-risk U.S. counties, while 34,170 moved out, which is how we got a net inflow of 63,365 in section one.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">35,175 of the aforementioned 97,535\u2014or 36.1%\u2014were people who moved to Texas. That\u2019s up from 28.7% in 2022. All in all, high-fire-risk counties in Texas saw a net inflow of 30,156\u2014a big chunk of the nationwide net inflow.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas is home to five of the 10 high-fire-risk counties that saw the largest net inflows of people last year. Four of those counties are located in the area surrounding Dallas-Fort Worth, which is home to a lot of state park land.<\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><b>County<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>State county is in<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Net inflow (2023)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Share of homes facing high fire risk<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Riverside County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">California<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7,807<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">78.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Parker County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">6,960<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">78.0%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weld County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Colorado<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">6,254<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">63.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Douglas County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Colorado<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">5,465<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">93.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hunt County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">4,530<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">71.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pima County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arizona<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3,823<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">72.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Grayson County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3,441<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">66.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wise County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3,008<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">68.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Midland County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2,584<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">77.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Larimer County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Colorado<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2,249<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">66.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas isn\u2019t often the first state that comes to mind when people consider fire risk, but it had <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nifc.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/NICC\/2-Predictive%20Services\/Intelligence\/Annual%20Reports\/2023\/annual_report_2023_0.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">more<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> wildfires last year (7,102) than any state but California (7,364), and actually <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">did<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> have the highest number of wildfires in 2022. Aside from California, the Lone Star State also has the greatest number of homes in the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.usfa.fema.gov\/wui\/what-is-the-wui.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wildland Urban Interface<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014the part of the country where developed land intermingles with undeveloped land, making it especially vulnerable to wildfires.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-78314\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/fire_map-1024x796.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"796\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/fire_map-1024x796.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/fire_map-300x233.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/fire_map-768x597.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/fire_map-1536x1195.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/fire_map.png 1543w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In general, Texas has attracted a lot of people in recent years because it has low taxes, relatively affordable housing prices and is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/bps\/data_visualizations\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">building<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> more homes than anywhere else in the country. And while it has made headlines for extreme weather events, it hasn\u2019t made national news quite like California and Florida, which may be one reason people are still moving to the Lone Star State in droves. California and Florida are known to be the epicenters of the housing insurance crisis, but house hunters should know that Texas also has some of the most <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/insurify.com\/homeowners-insurance\/report\/home-insurance-price-projections\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">expensive<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> insurance in the country, in part because it\u2019s vulnerable to hurricanes and flooding.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Flood-Prone Houston Bucks the Trend, With More People Leaving Than Moving In<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Five high-flood-risk counties in Texas had net inflows of more than 2,000 people in 2023. All are just outside of Houston, which last month grappled with flooding and power outages due to Hurricane Beryl, along with <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/science\/environment\/hurricane-beryl-deaths-texas-heat-power-outages-rcna162425\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">sweltering heat<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Harris County, which includes Houston proper and also faces high flood risk, is an outlier. It saw a net outflow of 22,792 people last year. That may partly reflect families moving to the suburbs, which gained popularity during the pandemic as remote work allowed people to prioritize things like big homes and access to nature over proximity to the office. But there are also climate migrants\u2014people leaving due to climate risk. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/premier\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin Premier<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> real estate agent <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/real-estate-agents\/nicole-nodarse\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nicole Nodarse<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is one; she\u2019s leaving Houston in August for Salem, OR.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThe main climate issue in Houston is flooding, but the major factor driving me away is the heat. I don\u2019t want to go through another Houston summer,\u201d Nodarse said. \u201cBut a lot of people are still moving here because they like the low prices and the politics. Homeowners insurance is becoming a big deal, though; it\u2019s much more expensive than it used to be, and a lot of people who installed 30-year roofs are now having to replace them after 15 years because some insurers won\u2019t cover the home if the roof is older than that.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nearly one-third (31.4%) of homes in Harris County face high flood risk, and 100% of homes face high heat risk.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong>A Lot of People Are Moving to Florida, Which Faces Extreme Flood Risk<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Migration to flood-prone Florida fueled a sizable chunk of the national net inflow to high-flood-risk areas last year. Here\u2019s the breakdown:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A total of 219,799 people moved into high-flood-risk U.S. counties, while 203,655 moved out, which is how we got a net inflow of 16,144 in section one.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">117,574 of the aforementioned 219,799\u2014or 53.5%\u2014were people who moved to Florida. All in all, high-flood-risk counties in Florida saw a net inflow of 68,564\u2014contributing significantly to the national net inflow. (The national net inflow is smaller than the Florida net inflow because the Florida net inflow was partly offset by outflows in other areas.)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While Florida\u2019s impact on the national figure is large, it has shrunk; Florida accounted for 53.5% of migration to high-flood-risk areas in 2023, down from 57.3% in 2022. This could be because people are becoming <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/redfin-users-interact-with-flood-risk-data\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">more aware<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of flood risk and surging insurance costs.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Florida is home to six of the 10 high-flood-risk counties that saw the largest net inflows of people last year. All six are located on the Florida coast.<\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><b>County<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>State county is in<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Net inflow (2023)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Share of homes facing high flood risk<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fort Bend County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">15,757<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">39.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Brevard County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Florida<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">14,886<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">24.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">St. Johns County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Florida<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">12,309<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">29.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Volusia County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Florida<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">12,284<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">30.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Manatee County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Florida<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">11,300<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">29.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sarasota County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Florida<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">8,526<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">29.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lee County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Florida<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">8,374<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">50.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Brazoria County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7,888<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">53.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Brunswick County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">North Carolina<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7,796<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">26.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sussex County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delaware<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7,329<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">28.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Miami bucks the trend. Miami-Dade County, where 38.9% of homes face high flood risk, saw a net <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">outflow<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of 47,597 people in 2023. That\u2019s a bigger outflow than almost any other county in the nation. Some people have left due to climate dangers, but many have been priced out due to the surge in housing costs during the pandemic. The median home sale price in the Miami metro area is $555,000, up almost 75% from $319,000 at this time in 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cMiami has gentrified. Many of the people who are selling their homes now are moving elsewhere because they can no longer afford to live here given the rise in interest rates, housing prices, insurance costs and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/florida-condo-prices-dropping\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">HOA<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> fees for condo dwellers,\u201d said <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/real-estate-agents\/rafael-corrales\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rafael Corrales<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/premier\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin Premier<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> agent in Miami. \u201cA lot of the buyers in the market are paying in cash, which allows them to forgo homeowners insurance. That means they don\u2019t have to deal with skyrocketing premiums, but it also means they\u2019re on their own if a storm hits.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-78315 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/flood_map-1024x796.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"796\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/flood_map-1024x796.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/flood_map-300x233.png 300w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/flood_map-768x597.png 768w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/flood_map-1536x1195.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/flood_map.png 1543w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Florida exploded in popularity in recent years for the same reasons Texas did: Low taxes, reasonable home prices (at least compared to many other coastal areas), and a lot of new homes. Many people also moved to the Sunshine State for, well, the sunshine\u2014and the politics. But now, many housing markets in Texas and Florida are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-tracker-march-2024\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">slowing<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> amid rising inventory and intensifying climate risk.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Florida, along with California, is in the middle of a housing-insurance crisis. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Many homeowners have seen their premiums <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/home-insurance-survey-report-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">skyrocket<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">,<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and some have lost coverage altogether because intensifying natural disaster risk has prompted many insurers to stop doing business in the two states. The good news is that homes being built in Florida today tend to be more <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/climate-solutions\/2022\/10\/01\/punta-gorda-hurricane-ian-damage\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">resilient<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than older homes because they must adhere to stricter, modern building codes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cProspective homebuyers are asking me a lot more questions about natural disasters and insurance costs than they were previously. About three-quarters of the sellers I speak to express frustration over recent increases in their insurance premiums,\u201d Corrales said. \u201cIf you\u2019re looking to buy a home in Florida, you should know that you can\u2019t be close to the water without being in a flood zone. If you\u2019re within three miles of the coastline, mother nature is going to pay you a visit. That\u2019s the price you pay for living in paradise.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong>People Are Leaving Fire-Prone California<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While fire-prone America saw more people move in than leave in 2023, there were still a lot of people who left, and many of them left California:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A total of 34,170 people left high-fire-risk U.S. counties last year.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">17,357 of those people\u2014or 50.8%\u2014left California. That\u2019s up from 41.9% in 2022, which may signal that people in the Golden State have grown more responsive to fire risk.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Overall, California\u2019s high-fire-risk areas saw a net outflow of 6,937 people in 2023. That marks a reversal from 2022, when high-fire-risk counties saw a slight net <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">inflow <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(+763).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">California<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is home to five of the 10 high-fire-risk counties that saw the largest net outflows of in 2023. Two of those counties are in and around Napa, which has sustained significant wildfire damage in recent years, and another is north of Lake Tahoe, which has also been hit by wildfires. The remaining two are on the coast\u2014one is next to Santa Barbara and one includes the city of Santa Cruz. Many of these counties also have high home prices, which may be pushing some people out of the area.<\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><b>County<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>State county is in<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Net outflow (2023)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Share of homes facing high fire risk<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ventura County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">California<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(6,754)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">67.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Santa Cruz County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">California<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(3,455)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">68.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Solano County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">California<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(1,965)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">66.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Boulder County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Colorado<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(1,919)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">68.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Telfair County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(1,455)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">70.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Napa County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">California<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (1,339)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">71.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Geary County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kansas<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(1,252)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">63.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lassen County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">California<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(1,179)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">81.0%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Comanche County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(1,057)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">70.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Potter County<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(994)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">76.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cWe live between the ocean and the bay, with the beautiful coastal mountains between, which means we have high fire risk, flood risk, and always the potential for an earthquake,\u201d said<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/real-estate-agents\/julie-zubiate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Julie Zubiate<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/premier\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin Premier<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0 agent in the Bay Area<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. \u201cI recently had a condo almost fall out of contract because Fannie Mae switched my client from approved to unapproved while under escrow. Fannie Mae decided the home&#8217;s HOA wasn&#8217;t protected enough from climate disasters. It took awhile, but we found a lender willing to take on the risk\u2014but at a higher cost to my clients.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Allstate, California\u2019s sixth largest insurer, is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/business\/story\/2024-07-11\/allstate-seeking-34-rate-increase-for-california-homeowners-insurance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">seeking<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to raise homeowners insurance costs by 34% on average. That would impact over 350,000 people and exceed the 30% hike sought last month by State Farm, the biggest insurer in the state. Allstate stopped writing <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">new<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> homeowners policies in California in 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cWe\u2019re getting a lot of transplants from California and Florida who are concerned about climate change,\u201d said <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/real-estate-agents\/kristin-sanchez\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kristin Sanchez<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/premier\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redfin Premier<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> agent in Nashville. \u201cMany of them are moving here to escape insurance costs that have become unaffordable.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Methodology<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Climate risk data for fire, flood and heat comes from the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/riskfactor.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First Street<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which assigns six different climate-risk categories to properties across the U.S.\u2014<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">minimal, minor, moderate, major, severe and extreme. For this report, a &#8220;high-risk&#8221;\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">property is one that falls into the major, severe or extreme category for a climate <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">risk. The climate risk scores are based on a property&#8217;s current risk as well as how that risk is expected to grow over the next 30 years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We identified counties in the contiguous U.S. that rank in the top 10% for flood and fire risk and roughly the top 33% for heat risk, as measured by the share of residential properties at high risk; for heat risk, high-risk counties are those where 100% of properties face high risk. For every county identified, we calculated the net domestic migration for 2023 using the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/programs-surveys\/popest\/data.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">U.S. Census Bureau&#8217;s Vintage Population Estimates<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> data. Net domestic migration is the difference between the number of people moving into an area and the number moving out. A positive number indicates in-migration and a negative number indicates out-migration.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>America\u2019s high-fire-risk counties saw a net inflow of 63,000 people last year, driven by migration to Texas.\u00a0 High-flood-risk counties saw a net inflow of 16,000, driven by migration to Florida.\u00a0 Texas and Florida have attracted a lot of people in recent years because they offer low taxes, relatively affordable housing prices and are building more [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13346,"featured_media":74991,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[52,43,42],"tags":[565,630,21,623],"coauthors":[125,660],"class_list":["post-78311","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-change","category-housing-equality-policy","category-migration","tag-climate","tag-climate-change","tag-migration","tag-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.7 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>More People Are Moving In Than Out of Fire- and Flood-Prone America<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"America\u2019s high-fire-risk counties saw a net inflow of 63,000 people last year, driven by migration to Texas.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, 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